GHANI’S BRAVADO: Despite dire assessments of the U.S. intelligence community that the withdrawal of U.S. and foreign troops from Afghanistan will likely result in an eventual Taliban takeover, the country’s president insists Afghan security forces are well-positioned to prevent the collapse of his government.
In an interview with CNN’s Fareed Zakaria, President Ashraf Ghani said he was not worried about an imminent takeover because for two years now, 90% of the current operations against the Taliban have been conducted by the Afghan defense and security forces, which number more than 300,000.
“I respect the president’s decision. I’ve always made clear … that I never discussed numbers or whether the United States should stay long,” Ghani said. “The announcement has been a game-changer,” he said. “The announcement was not unexpected for me. We have been deliberating about this for two years. Now it is time for recalculation.”
VAGUE PROMISE OF US SUPPORT: “Though we may not have a footprint on the ground, it doesn’t mean that we’re walking away from our Afghan partners,” said Pentagon press secretary John Kirby Friday. “We’ll continue to pay salaries, for instance … We’re going to continue to support their Afghan Air Force.”
“The Afghan national security forces are right now defending their own people … securing their own borders, and they will continue to do that,” he said. “We’re going to transition to a bilateral relationship, a military relationship that’s more akin to the kinds of relationships we have with other countries.”
THE QUESTION OF CONTRACTORS: The Pentagon won’t say what will happen to more than 16,000 contractors, including 6,100 Americans, who provide vital support services, including maintaining the aircraft in Afghanistan’s fledgling Air Force. The 2020 agreement with the Taliban is believed to require all foreign contractors leave along with the troops.
“Afghan security forces are nowhere near achieving self-sufficiency, as they cannot maintain their equipment, manage their supply chains, or train new soldiers, pilots, and policemen without the 13,000 DOD contractors,” John Sopko, the special inspector general for Afghanistan reconstruction, told Congress last month. “DOD estimates that no Afghan airframe can maintain combat effectiveness for more than a few months if contractor support is withdrawn.”
“I take issue, and I would suspect the Afghans would take issue, with the allegation that they can’t take care of their stuff,” Kirby said. “Do they need some contract support, or at least right now? Yes, they do. But that doesn’t mean they can’t still have contract support going forward. It’s just going to be, maybe, of a different character.”
OVER THE HORIZON: Meanwhile, the Pentagon is furiously preparing plans to begin repositioning forces in the region outside of Afghanistan, but close enough to respond if there is a reassurance of al Qaeda or if the Taliban carries out its threatened attacks on U.S. forces during the withdrawal period.
“We’ve seen their threats, and it would be imprudent for us not to take those threats seriously,” said Kirby. “It would also be imprudent for the Taliban to not take seriously what the president and what Secretary Austin both made clear, that any attack on our drawdown, on our forces, or our allies and partners as they drawdown will be met very forcefully.”
“We will have the means to see if there is a resurgence, a reemergence of a terrorist threat from Afghanistan. We’ll be able to see that in real-time with time to take action,” said Secretary of State Antony Blinken on ABC Sunday. “And we’re going to be repositioning our forces and our assets to make sure that we guard against the potential reemergence.”
“The Taliban is also committed not to allow al Qaeda or other terrorist groups that might target the United States to reemerge. We’re going to hold them to that commitment,” Blinken said.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Secretary Blinken delivers a speech at 4:15 p.m. at the Chesapeake Bay Foundation headquarters in Annapolis, ahead of President Joe Biden’s Leaders Summit on Climate. Blinken will address how climate change is central to U.S. foreign policy, according to a statement from the State Department.
TRUMP ON AFGHANISTAN, ‘GET OUT EARLIER’: Former President Donald Trump issued a statement yesterday indicating his displeasure with President Joe Biden’s timetable for the withdrawal of all U.S. forces from Afghanistan by Sept. 11.
“I wish Joe Biden wouldn’t use September 11th as the date to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, for two reasons. First, we can and should get out earlier. Nineteen years is enough, in fact, far too much and way too long,” Trump said. “I made early withdraw possible by already pulling much of our billions of dollars of equipment out and, more importantly, reducing our military presence to less than 2,000 troops from the 16,000 level that was there.”
“Secondly, September 11th represents a very sad event and period for our Country and should remain a day of reflection and remembrance honoring those great souls we lost,” he said. “Getting out of Afghanistan is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1st, and we should keep as close to that schedule as possible.”
MISSING CONTEXT: Trump said he reduced troops levels from 16,000 to 2,000. Actually, the official number is 2,500, and, in fact, we’ve learned the unofficial number was closer to 3,500, accounting for troops moving in and out. And when Trump took office, the official number of U.S. troops was 8,400, which we later learned was closer to 11,000.
Trump is correct that because of the planning done in advance of Biden’s decision, the U.S. military could complete a withdrawal well before Sept. 11, but the additional time is needed for the NATO allies and private contractors to pack up and leave as well. The Biden administration has said it is possible the troops will be out before the deadline.
In addition, Trump made reference to having “zero troops in Syria except for the area where we KEPT THE OIL.” The Pentagon doesn’t release exact troop numbers for Syria but does say the several hundred troops there, including some providing security for oil fields in Kurdish areas, are not keeping the oil for the U.S.
“The mission of our troops in Syria is to prosecute and enable coalition operations against ISIS,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said in response to a query from the Washington Examiner.
GRAHAM, NOTHING ‘WONDERFUL’ OR ‘POSITIVE’ ABOUT WITHDRAWAL: “I could not disagree more with former President Trump regarding his support for President Biden’s withdrawal of all forces from Afghanistan against sound military advice,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham in a statement yesterday.
“With all due respect to former President Trump, there is nothing ‘wonderful’ or ‘positive’ about allowing safe havens and sanctuary for terrorists to reemerge in Afghanistan or see Afghanistan be drawn back into another civil war,” said Graham. “We will see if ‘General’ Biden and ‘General’ Trump’s withdrawal strategy turns out to be sound national security policy … I very seriously doubt it as I have seen this movie in Iraq and I fear that over time Afghanistan will become worse.”
INDUSTRY WATCH: Word from the State Department last week that the Biden administration plans to proceed with the sale of $23 billion in weapons to the United Arab Emirates, including the Lockheed Martin F-35, has prompted two Democrats to again try to block the deal.
Sens. Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Dianne Feinstein of California introduced the Secure F-35 Exports Act of 2020 on Friday, which would block delivery of the F-35 and other “sophisticated and mission-critical American military systems” until the president can make detailed certifications to Congress that the technology of the U.S. aircraft and Israel’s security are fully protected.
“If the Administration has decided to proceed with this Trump-era deal, then we must enact protections to ensure the incredibly sensitive technology of these aircraft is not compromised by powers hostile to the United States, including making sure the UAE pulls-back from its burgeoning relationship with China and other U.S. competitors,” said Menendez, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
“Projected delivery dates on these sales, if eventually implemented, will be several years in the future,” the State Department said last week in a statement. “Thus, we anticipate a robust and sustained dialogue with the UAE to any defense transfers meet our mutual strategic objectives to build a stronger, interoperable, and more capable security partnership.”
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The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Putin tests Biden with military buildup as GOP lawmakers call for US show of force
Washington Examiner: Biden’s national security adviser warns of ‘consequences’ for Russia if Navalny dies
Washington Examiner: US and NATO warn Russia not to blockade Ukrainian ports
Washington Examiner: ‘Threat to Iran’: Biden’s decision to leave Afghanistan puts pressure on US rivals
Washington Examiner: DOJ investigating whether ‘Russiagate’ inquirer Kash Patel leaked classified information: Report
Washington Examiner: EXCLUSIVE: Biden administration to release 400 migrant families per day by June, up from 50 in January
Washington Examiner: US and China to cooperate on climate crisis as top priority
Nikkei Asia: China hits back at Japan-U.S. statement that names Taiwan
AP: Macron Says Nations Must ‘Define Red Lines’ With Russia
Stars and Stripes: Number Of U.S. Troops In Afghanistan Could Increase To Help With Drawdown Efforts
Washington Post: After troops leave Afghanistan, U.S. will face challenges maintaining counterterrorism capability
New York Times: Debating Exit, Biden Rejected Generals’ View
Air Force Magazine: DNI: Cyber Is The Common Weapon Among Top Adversaries
Defense One: Advocates Hope First Female Army Secretary Brings Change
Washington Post: Montenegro mortgaged itself to China. Now it wants Europe’s help to cut it free.
Washington Post: NSA official installed as Trump left office resigns after he was sidelined
Washington Post: Iran state television names suspect in Natanz nuclear facility attack
AP: Marine Tanks Back In Water After Deadly Accident Last Year
CNN: Department Of Defense Will Re-Allocate Moderna Doses To Overseas Bases Following Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Pause
Task & Purpose: The Biden administration claims Afghan security forces will be just fine (They won’t)
Washington Post: Opinion: America’s mission in Afghanistan isn’t accomplished
New York Times: Opinion: What Joe Biden and I Saw After the U.S. Invaded Afghanistan
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Time For Strategic Triage In Afghanistan
Calendar
MONDAY | APRIL 19
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments virtual discussion on the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence report and “Blueprint for Action” with former Deputy Defense Secretary Robert Work, NSCAI vice chair; Jose-Marie Griffiths, NSCAI commissioner; Chris Bassler, CSBA senior fellow; and Harrison Schramm, CSBA senior fellow. https://csbaonline.org/about/events/csba-virtual-roundtable
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “New Tools for New Threats: Strengthening U.S. Intelligence Capabilities,” with former Director of National Intelligence John Ratcliffe. https://www.heritage.org/technology/event/virtual-event
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Taking Stock of China’s Emerging Middle Eastern Kingdom,” with Xiyue Wang, Jeane Kirkpatrick Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and PhD Candidate in History at Princeton University; Bernard Haykel, professor of Near Eastern Studies and director of the Institute for Transregional Study of the Contemporary Middle East, North Africa and Central Asia at Princeton University; Michael Doran, senior fellow, Hudson Institute; and Peter Rough, senior fellow, Hudson Institute. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event
2 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: “Biden’s North Korea Policy Review: Perspectives from the Region,” with Yun Sun, director of the Stimson China Program; Yuki Tatsumi, director of the Stimson Japan Program; Jenny Town, director of Stimson’s 38 North Program; and Brian Finlay, president and CEO of Stimson. https://www.stimson.org/event/bidens-north-korea-policy-review
3:30 p.m. — Jewish Institute for National Security of America virtual discussion: “Sabotage at Natanz: Implications of Attack on Iran’s Nuclear Facility,” with retired Israel Defense Forces Maj. Gen. Yaakov Amidror, fellow at JINSA’s Gemunder Center and former national security adviser to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; John Hannah, JINSA senior fellow and former national security adviser to Vice President Cheney; and Blaise Misztal, JINSA vice president for policy https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
TUESDAY | APRIL 20
9 a.m. — Defense Forum Foundation webinar: “What To Do for Hong Kong,” with Ted Hui, exiled Hong Kong legislative councilor; Joey Siu, Hong Kong student democracy activist; and Ben Rogers, co-founder and chief executive of Hong Kong Watch. https://defenseforumfoundation.org
9:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the Defense Health Program, with Terry Adirim, Acting Assistant Secretary Defense for Health Affairs; Lt. Gen. R. Scott Dingle, Army surgeon general; Rear Adm. Bruce Gillingham, Navy surgeon general; Lt. Gen. Dorothy Hogg, Air Force surgeon general. https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings/defense-health-program
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on U.S. Strategic Command and U.S. Space Command Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2022 and the Future Years Defense Program, with Gen. James Dickinson, commander, U.S. Space Command; and Adm. Charles Richard, commander, U.S. Strategic Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
11 a.m. — Lockheed Martin Corporation releases 20210 1st quarter earnings results in a webcast https://investors.lockheedmartin.com/events
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Greater Middle East and Africa,” with Amanda Dory, acting undersecretary of defense for Policy; Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command; Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander, U.S. Africa Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Intelligence National Security Alliance virtual discussion: “Securing Microelectronics Supply Chains,” with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.; Mike Orlando, acting director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center; and House Foreign Affairs ranking member Michael McCaul, R-Texas. https://www.insaonline.org/event/securing-microelectronics-supply-chains
1 p.m. — Nuclear Threat Initiative virtual book discussion on “Negotiating the New START Treaty: Lessons for the Future of Arms Control, with author and former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Rose Gottemoeller. https://zoom.us/webinar/register
9:30 a.m. 192 Dirksen — Senate Appropriations Subcommittee hearing “Fiscal year 2022 Budget Requests,” with Yogananda Pittman, Acting Chief U.S. Capitol Police; J. Brett Blanton, architect of the Capitol; and Karen Gibson, Senate sergeant-at-arms. https://www.appropriations.senate.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Thought Leaders” webinar with retired Gen. George Joulwan, former supreme NATO commander to discuss his new memoir: Watchman at the Gates: A Soldier’s Journey from Berlin to Bosnia. https://info.ausa.org
WEDNESDAY | APRIL 21
10 a.m. — United States Institute of Peace webinar: “Afghanistan’s Next Chapter: What Happens as U.S. Troops Leave?” with Nader Nadery, chairman of the Afghan Independent Administrative Reform and Civil Service Commission; Haseeb Humayoon, partner at Qara Consulting LLC; Laurel Miller, program director for Asia at the International Crisis Group; Muqaddesa Yourish, country director at Lapis Communications; Dipali Mukhopadhyay, senior expert on Afghanistan peace processes at USIP; and Scott Worden, director of Afghanistan and Central Asia programs at USIP. https://www.usip.org/events/afghanistans-next-chapter
11:30 a.m — Washington Post Live virtual discussion on topics that include “the timetable for U.S. troops to leave Afghanistan, the relationship with China and the Biden administration.” with House Foreign Affairs ranking member Michael McCaul, R-Texas; and Jacqueline Alemany, author of the Post’s “Power Up” newsletter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
1 p.m. — Center for Security Policy online discussion: “Artificial Intelligence and the Wars of the Future,” with former Rep. Joe Sestak, D-Pa.; and Ken Rapuano, research fellow at the National Defense University and former assistant secretary of defense for homeland defense and global security. https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/762111352948792859
2:30 p.m. 232A Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on the current and future cyber workforce of the Department of Defense and the military services, with Lt. Gen. Dennis Crall, director, command, control communications and computers/cyber and Chief Information Officer, Joint Staff; Leonard Litton, acting deputy assistant secretary for defense for military personnel; Veronica Hinton, acting deputy assistant secretary for defense for civilian personnel policy; and John Sherman, acting department of defense chief information officer. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. 222 Russell — Senate Armed Services Subcommittee hearing on science and technology, technology maturation, and technology transition activities, with Brig. Gen. Heather Pringle, commander, Air Force Research Laboratory; Rear Adm. Lorin Selby, chief, Naval Research; Maj. Gen. John George, commanding general, U. S. Army Combat Capabilities Development Command; Peter Highnam, deputy director, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
2:30 p.m. — Brookings Institution virtual book discussion “Turning Point: Policymaking in the Era of Artificial Intelligence,” with co-author John Allen, president of Brookings; and co-author Darrel West, vice president of Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/events/policymaking-and-artificial-intelligence
4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces hearing: “FY22 Strategic Forces Posture,” with Melissa Dalton, acting assistant secretary of defense, strategy, plans and capabilities; Adm. Charles Richard, commander. U.S. Strategic Command; and Gen. James Dickinson, commander. U.S. Space Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
THURSDAY | APRIL 22
9 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual Nuclear Deterrence Forum with Air Force Lt. Gen. James Dawkins, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of the Mitchell Institute. Video posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/
9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing U.S. Central Command and U.S. Africa Command Defense Authorization Request for Fiscal Year 2022 and the Future Years Defense Program, with Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander U.S. Africa Command; and Gen. Kenneth McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings
9:30 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittees on Tactical Air and Land Forces and Readiness Joint hearing: “Update on F-35 Program Accomplishments, Issues, and Risks,” with Diana Maurer, director, military structure and operations issues, GAO; Greg Ulmer, executive vice president of aeronautics, Lockheed Martin; Matthew Bromberg, president, military engines, Pratt & Whitney; Lt. Gen. Eric Fick, program executive officer, F-35 Joint Program Office; Brig. Gen. David Abba, director, F-35 Integration Office, U.S. Air Force. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
9:50 a.m. — U.S. Army Futures Command and the Lieber Institute for Law and Land Warfare at West Point virtual seminar: “The Future Character of War and the Law of Armed Conflict, with Gen. John. Murray, commanding general, Army Futures Command. https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-future-character-of-war
10 a.m. — American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research event “Priorities for the fiscal year 2022 defense budget,” with Rep. Adam Smith, chairman, House Armed Services Committee; and Mackenzie Eaglen, Resident Fellow, AEI. https://www.aei.org/events/a-conversation
11 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in Europe, with Air Force Gen. Tod Wolters, commander, U.S. European Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
12 p.m. — Cato Institute virtual book discussion on “The Stupidity of War: American Foreign Policy and the Case for Complacency,” with John Mueller, adjunct professor of political science at Ohio State University; Christopher Fettweis, professor of political science at Tulane University; and Brandon Valeriano, senior fellow at Cato. https://www.cato.org/events/stupidity-war
1 p.m. — Space Foundation “Space Symposium 365” virtual discussion with Brig. Gen. Heather Pringle, commander of the Air Force Research Laboratory. https://spacesymposium365.org
4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Department of Defense Inspector General and the Services Inspector Generals: Roles, Responsibilities and Opportunities for Improvement,” with Gordon Heddell, former inspector general of the Department of Defense; Mandy Smithberger, director of the Center for Defense Information Project on Government Oversight; Sean O’Donnell, acting/inspector general of the Department of Defense; Lt. Gen. Leslie Smith, inspector general of the Army; Lt. Gen. Sami Said, iInspector general of the Air Force; Vice Adm. Richard Snyder, inspector general of the Navy; and Maj. Gen. Robert Castellvi, inspector general of the Marine Corps. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | APRIL 23
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Securing Critical Minerals Supply Chains,” with Andrew Miller, product director at Benchmark Minerals Intelligence; Andrew DeWit, professor at the Rikkyo University School of Economic Policy Studies; and Marco Giuli, researcher at the Free University of Brussels’s School of Governance. https://www.csis.org/events/securing-critical-minerals-supply-chains
12 p.m. — Heritage Foundation and Texas A&M University Bush School of Government and Public Service webinar: “U.S. Intelligence: How Does It Adapt to a Rapidly Changing National Security Landscape?” with former Undersecretary of Defense for Intelligence Steve Cambone, associate vice chancellor for cybersecurity initiatives at Texas A&M University; Gary Ross, associate professor and director of intelligence studies at Texas A&M University in Washington, D.C.; Jay Silveria, executive director of the Texas A&M Bush School of Government and Public Service; and David Shedd, visiting fellow at Heritage. https://www.heritage.org/defense/event
1 p.m. — Henry L. Stimson Center webinar: ‘The Intersection of Technology and National Security,” with Clint Watts, research fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute; and France Hoang, co-chair of the Stimson Center’s Alfred Lee Loomis Innovation Council. https://www.stimson.org/event
2 p.m. — The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research virtual discussion “The Outlook for Air and Space Power,” with Royal Air Force Chief of the Air Staff Mike Wigston; and Mackenzie Eaglen, AEI resident fellow. http://www.american.com/watch/aei-livestream
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The mission of our troops in Syria is to prosecute and enable coalition operations again ISIS.”
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby, in response to former President Donald Trump’s claim that U.S. troops in Syria are guarding oil that is being kept by the United States.
