PORTLAND, Maine — In closing days of a bruising midterm election campaign, Democrats are putting Republicans on the defensive in red territory supportive of President Trump, upping their chances of winning the House majority.
Some districts, like Maine’s 2nd, where Democrat Jared Golden is pressing Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin, have been competitive for months. But a round of late-breaking House seats have emerged in Trump territory that typically delivers easy victories to the GOP, expanding Democratic opportunities for gains and forcing overwhelmed Republicans to stretch precious resources even thinner.
“I believe that Bruce Poliquin will pull it out, but it is very close. It’s within the margin of error,” Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said in an interview with the Washington Examiner on Wednesday, while in Phoenix to campaign for Arizona’s Republican Senate nominee, Rep. Martha McSally.
For the balance of the 2018 election cycle, House Republicans have been on the defensive in upscale suburbs that voted for Democrat Hillary Clinton over Trump in 2016, or that have otherwise shown signs of turning blue in a rejection of the president’s divisive culture-war politics. But the Democrats’ bid to flip the House is also being fueled by strong campaigns in conservative territory that is generally pleased with Trump’s leadership.
The 2nd Congressional District in Maine, a largely rural seat, is a good example. Golden, a state legislator, could capture a district that awarded 51.5 percent of its vote to Trump; the president defeated Clinton there by more than 10 points. Poliquin cruised to re-election in the 2nd, winning by just under 10 points.
As Election Day approaches, this campaign is among the most expensive in the nation, with nearly $20 million spent on television ads alone, according to the Lewiston Sun Journal. Golden has outspent Poliquin significantly, although Republican outside groups have picked up the slack. In this and several other threatened districts, Republican insiders worry the Democrats’ cash wave will be too powerful for the party’s majority to withstand.
“I cannot overstate the significance of the Democrats’ financial advantage in the House,” a Republican strategist involved the party’s battle to save the GOP’s 23-seat House majority, told the Washington Examiner.
Now, with five full days of campaigning left, House Republicans are reeling from fresh signs of political vulnerability in districts that were never projected as competitive — even in the sort of tough midterm year that parties experience when they control the White House. (Others were thought to be potentially competitive, but appeared safe for the GOP until just the past few days.)
Just this week, the National Republican Congressional Committee was forced to buy advertising time in South Carolina’s 1st District, an open seat that Trump won with 53 percent of the vote. Ultimately, Republicans expect to hold the seat, but felt they could lose their grip on it if they didn’t invest.
Democrats are realistic about their prospects in these late-breaking seats. Generally in red territory, a little advertising money from the NRCC could go a long way. Ditto Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with GOP leadership and the other main group on the Right that is spending to preserve the House majority.
But weakness down the stretch in these solid Republican districts has buoyed Democratic optimism about winning the House, just a few weeks after it appeared that House Republicans had received a critical boost from the explosive confirmation hearings to vet newly minted Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
And if Democrats win just one of these late breaking districts, Republicans privately worry that it would prove to be their majority’s death knell. “If any of these fall, the majority is gone — automatically,” a GOP operative said.
Here is a list of the late-breaking seats both parties are monitoring: The 3rd Congressional District of Washington state; the 6th and 7th districts of Georgia; the 15th and 18th districts of Florida; and the 50th District of California and the 27th District of New York, both of which feature Republican incumbents in embroiled in major corruption scandals.
There are two additional seats Democrats and Republicans are watching that could tumble on Nov. 6 that have no business going blue: Utah’s 4th Congressional District and Iowa’s 4th Congressional District.
In Iowa, Republican Rep. Steve King was disavowed by the NRCC for a series of racially charged statements he’s made over the years, and because of his association with some radical right-wing provocateurs. In Utah, Republican Rep. Mia Love is in trouble in part because of ethical issues related to fundraising improprieties.
Love’s Democratic challenger, Salt Lake County Mayor Ben McAdams, is formidable, but Republican insiders are blaming the congresswoman for her predicament, saying she has no business losing with Republican Senate nominee and favorite son Mitt Romney at the top of the ticket.
“Republicans are very worried about Mia Love,” the GOP operative said. “She has messed up this race from the beginning.” Added a Democratic operative, without hesitation: “We’re favored.”
Al Weaver contributed to this story from Phoenix.
