During the first two years of the Trump presidency, little if any political benefit has accrued to Republicans who have defied the president. In a host of primary elections, the Trump imprimatur has been a valuable asset, and the president maintains reasonably high approval ratings among his own partisans.
And yet, a new Pew Research Center study suggests that the demand for fealty to Trump is coming primarily from the older set within the Republican Party. Younger Republicans have lower expectations of adherence to Trumpism from their elected partisans, and a significant number of them do not think Trump cares about people like them.
While young Republicans generally say they approve of the job Trump is doing, these new data may be the strongest sign yet that young Republicans are open to a new direction for the party post-Trump.
No need to belabor the point on Trump’s challenges with young voters overall; they are well documented. A 27 percent job approval among the under-30 set is a compelling enough number on its own. Yet there are still some young people who call themselves Republicans or say they lean toward the GOP, and typically a majority of them do approve of the job Trump is doing.
Does this mean that the future of the Republican Party will be built on a generation who expects the party to continue in the mold of Trump even when Trump is no longer on the scene? Not necessarily.
In the Pew study, Republicans older than 50 years old, by a 51-46 margin, say there is an “obligation” for Republican lawmakers to support Trump’s agenda. But for Republicans under age 50, the answer swings dramatically in the other direction, with only 27 percent agreeing. Fully 69 percent of those under 50 instead say Republicans in Congress do not have an obligation to support the president in all things.
For many young Republican members of Congress like Reps. Will Hurd, R-Texas, Carlos Curbelo, R-Fla., or Adam Kinzinger, R-Ill., there have been plenty of disagreements with Trump on issues like immigration, climate change, and Russia. They aren’t #NeverTrumpers, to be sure, but when they have honest disagreements with the president, they don’t conceal them. Despite this, they have not faced Eric Cantor-like peril in their primaries, winning their party’s nominations this year by wide margins.
In walking this road, they seem to be taking the path that many young Republicans endorse: Be your own person, and make plain where you agree and disagree with Trump.
The Pew report also assessed how Trump scored among his own partisans on various attributes and characteristics. Pew asked voters if they found Trump to be trustworthy, someone who gets things done, someone who stands up for his beliefs, among other qualities. The characteristic “cares about people like me” has never been Trump’s strongest metric, but it is undeniable that his appeal to many of his voters is that he did care about them — the “forgotten man” was not forgotten anymore. So to see Trump lose about three in 10 Republicans on that question made me wonder: Who are the Republicans who think Trump doesn’t care about them?
I asked the team at Pew to look into the demographic breaks on this question, and what they came back with did not surprise: It is younger Republicans who are much less likely than older Republicans to feel like Trump “cares about people like” them. For Republicans older than age 50, 82 percent say Trump cares. Under age 50? Only 63 percent feel the same way. Most other attributes tested do not exhibit such a large age gap, save one: assessments of Trump’s temperament.
Younger Republicans and those who lean toward the party generally believe Trump is a strong leader, someone who gets things done, keeps his promises, and stands up for what he believes in. But they’re less likely to say Trump cares about people like them, and overwhelmingly think Republicans in Congress do not have an obligation to walk in lockstep with him.
If the midterm elections go poorly for Republicans and the party begins searching for a new direction forward, look to younger Republicans to offer a slightly different vision for the party than what is on offer today.
Correction: An earlier version of this piece said 3 percent of those under age 50 felt Trump “cares about people like them” The correct number is 63 percent,
