Joe Biden’s electability argument is resonating in Arizona, according to a new poll.
Biden, the presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee, has an early 9 percentage point lead on President Trump in Arizona, notching up 52% support among likely voters to the incumbent’s 43% in a survey published Tuesday by OHPI. The research found 5% of respondents were still undecided.
The two-term vice president’s share of the vote in the April poll represents a 3 percentage point increase from last month, while the man he’s seeking to replace in the Oval Office’s support has remained flat. The results reflect Biden’s general advantage in the state. He has an average 4.4 percentage point lead, according to RealClearPolitics data.
Although Biden is polling ahead of Trump, the president’s base is more energized. Seven in 10 voters told OHPI they were “extremely enthusiastic” about casting a ballot in the general election, compared to 60% who felt the same way about Biden. Another 9% of Biden supporters said they were “not too enthusiastic” or “not at all enthusiastic” about the fall contest.
“If coronavirus is still rampaging through the country in November, campaigns may struggle to turn out voters on Election Day,” OHPI data analyst Jacob Joss said. “That task is going to be made even more difficult if a candidate’s supporters are not enthusiastic about voting for them in the first place. While the president faces a significant deficit, in these unprecedented times he is by no means out of this race.”
For this month’s iteration, OHPI conducted interviews with 600 likely Arizona voters via landlines and cellphones from April 7-8. The findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Arizona is growing in electoral importance for Democrats. If Biden can win its 11 electoral votes, his ticket would no longer be reliant on Wisconsin, which has an equal number and where Trump won in 2016.
