Russia’s Gazprom energy giant has declared a force majeure, or extraordinary qualification, clause absolving itself of fulfilling supplies under existing contracts. First reported by Reuters, the move is almost certainly designed to tighten energy supplies across Europe and increase political pressure on EU leaders. Vladimir Putin‘s energy blackmail sets up Europe for a difficult winter.
It’s only the latest in a series of related Gazprom actions.
Although Russia’s actions have been enabled by the willful and sustaining ignorance of Biden officials such as State Department energy czar Amos Hochstein, they are part of a very deliberate Russian strategy. Namely, the quite basic strategy of leveraging something Europe needs (energy) for something Putin wants (political obedience). Putin wants Europe to limit its support to Ukraine and states such as the Baltics, Poland, Bosnia, and Kosovo; to limit its defense spending; and to pay heavy deference to Russian interests on geopolitical issues such as those involving Kremlin patrons China and Iran. Putin also wants Europe to turn a blind eye to his varied assassination, cyber terrorism, and covert influence campaigns. To win Europe’s obedience to his desires, Putin uses his energy stranglehold as a weapon.
European leaders have a big problem. With energy prices already soaring and storage levels running low, Putin can make the coming European winter very uncomfortable. He suspects, likely correctly, that European leaders will be unable to locate the courage to escalate against him in kind, forcing him to back down. In turn, Russia’s price for restored supplies will be the restraint of Europe’s paltry support for Ukraine. Had European leaders resisted the shortsighted delusions of former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, they might not be in this mess. And with American liquefied natural gas facilities blowing up (for one reason or another), Europe has few options.
Putin’s play was entirely predictable. The Russian president is a KGB officer of the Red Banner Institute. He is trained to use exploitation and manipulation before overt confrontation and competition. European leaders made Putin’s task easy. They chose cheap delusion over energy diversification and sovereign stability.
There is no better example of this idiocy than the recent presence of Gazprom banners at the UEFA Champions League soccer tournament. Until Russia invaded Ukraine in February, European soccer viewers were greeted by a never-ending stream of Gazprom banners as they watched their teams compete in the continent’s most prestigious annual tournament. It was very Russian proof of how ambition, threats, and bribery can win the obedience of another.
What happens when winter comes?
Considering the recent record of European leaders such as European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, Europe will likely try to escape this mess by simultaneously appeasing Putin and begging the U.S. for support. But while Biden has rewarded that pathetic European strategy, change is coming.
After all, Americans have seen how Europe is unwilling to invest and act seriously in its own defense. Instead, Europe’s nations rely on the U.S. military and taxpayers to do the hard work. Yet, an alliance in which one party provides much without reciprocity is not an alliance. Rather, it is a masterpiece Ponzi scheme. American patience is rightly running out. Absent a fundamental shift in European thinking, a time will soon come when U.S. strategy in Europe is separated between security support for reliable burden-sharing allies and allies increasingly in name only.
On one side: those such as the Baltics, Britain, Poland, and Finland.
On the other: France, Germany, and Italy, which have caught themselves between Putin and a cold place.
