President Joe Biden’s and Democrats’ 2022 political fortunes hinge on their management of the novel coronavirus and whether voters believe the pandemic-induced public health and financial crises are behind them.
But as mask mandates and indoor physical distancing guidelines linger, Biden and his congressional colleagues will be hindered in next year’s midterm elections if there is no clear “end” to the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Biden “unwisely” raised expectations in June regarding his administration’s pandemic response, “which made for disappointment in July and August” because of the more contagious delta variant, according to Claremont McKenna College politics professor John Pitney.
But the problems Biden and his allies face have been exacerbated by their messaging. In their attempts to encourage people to get vaccinated against COVID-19, Democrats have downplayed the likelihood that masks and other mitigation strategies will be required in 2022. This comes even as cases outpace the number reported last fall and as deaths, particularly among the unvaccinated, climb.
Those ramifications for next year’s midterm cycle remain unknown, according to Pitney.
If the pandemic is “effectively over” — a best-case scenario — Pitney predicted the issue would be less influential in 2022. But the former Republican staffer and Politics of Autism author warned successful governing does not always translate to success at the polls, citing how former President George H.W. Bush won the Gulf War in 1991 but lost his reelection campaign a year later.
“If the pandemic is still on, there will be a struggle to define the narrative. Republicans will blame Biden,” he said, referring to GOP Govs. Ron DeSantis of Florida and Greg Abbott of Texas. “Democrats will blame DeSantis, Abbott, and other GOP figures who resisted safety measures.”
Republicans, such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, contend Democrats benefit from “a perpetual pandemic state” into next year.
Glen Nowak, director of the University of Georgia’s Center for Health and Risk Communication, disagreed there were pandemic political boons, especially because COVID-19 distracted Biden from his other legislative and policy goals.
“As COVID-19 has continually shown, there is too much unpredictability and uncertainty for a pandemic to have political value,” he said. “Second, effectively addressing this pandemic requires much and constant attention, regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in control of the White House.”
But Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos sided with McConnell and McCarthy, to an extent.
Democrats may stem their losses in the 2022 cycle if pandemic conditions allow mail-in voting again, according to Paleologos. Democrats are bracing to forfeit their Senate and House majorities based on historic electoral trends in which voters cast ballots against the party in power.
That is because Democrats tend to perform better among early voters than Republicans, whose base mostly turns out on Election Day, Paleologos told the Washington Examiner. That conventional wisdom should hold despite GOP-led reforms, specifically in districts capturing the Atlanta, Detroit, and Philadelphia suburbs, the pollster added.
“Some may argue, ‘Well, it didn’t really matter last time because, even though Trump lost, there wasn’t a big swing to the Democrats, even with all those mail-in ballots,'” he said. “But it will matter in some districts.”
At the same time, Biden’s approval ratings have started to slip due to his pandemic management. The president’s popularity began dipping in July before his bungled withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan because of a resurgence in COVID-19 from the delta variant.
Last week, Biden introduced his six-point plan to counter the delta variant, including federal and private workforce vaccine mandates, after months of insisting he would not consider making shots compulsory. His tone and tenor revealed a growing frustration with those yet to roll up their sleeves while simultaneously triggering anger from Republicans.
“Biden wants to position himself to say to voters and Democrats to say to voters, ‘What more can a president do?'” Paleologos said. “Biden’s not on the ballot in 2022, but if the pendulum continues to swing back away from the Democrats, it’s just a question of how bad the damage is going to be.”
But for Paleologos, the consequences of Biden’s failure to prepare the public for mask-wearing next year will likely be overshadowed by economic concerns if unemployment and inflation stay high.
Former President George W. Bush did not face political fallout over heightened airport security after the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, Paleologos argued. Instead, the pollster pointed to the structural shift underway within the economy as millennials replace boomers as the dominant working generation following many pandemic-related early retirements.
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“That could be a problem that nobody’s even really been looking at yet long term. I don’t know if it will affect 2022, but certainly, 2024 might be in play,” he said.
