How the ‘Democratic wave’ could wash away Nancy Pelosi

“If we beat all expectations and it’s a massive class, well then you’ve got a real wild card there,” he told the Washington Examiner. “The Watergate class took out a lot of sitting chairmen on their own team.”

In 1974, a whopping 76 new Democrats were sent to Congress as voters vented their outrage at President Richard Nixon and the Watergate scandal. Forty-nine of those 76 Democrats flipped GOP-held seats, and when they got to Washington, those new members directed voters’ wrath inward. They wiped out their own party’s leadership on a promise to turn the turmoil and disgust of Watergate into congressional oversight, new productivity, and an establishment shake-up.

[Related: Paul Ryan is dealing a titanic blow to House Republicans]

Recognizing this as their best shot in more than a decade to recapture the House amid discontent with President Trump, Democrats are buzzing about the possibilities a majority provides — chief among them the ability to rise up the ranks and break the current system of top-down legislating. Though Pelosi says she isn’t going anywhere, viable replacements are starting to count their allies, bring strong Democratic candidates under their wing, and work the caucus.

As the number of members opposed to Pelosi’s leadership grow and more candidates call for a change, it’s uncertain if she will have the 218 votes to remain in power, regardless of how Democrats fare.

Though the class of ‘74 didn’t oust then-Speaker Carl Albert, D-Okla., they booted three committee chairmen, pushed eight others into retirement, and overhauled the amendment process.

“It’s all up in the air to be honest,” said Rep. John Yarmuth, D-Ky., “If we have 50 new members, which we could very well have, half of them or more will have said they’re not going to vote for Nancy. Then my guess is there’ll be a real race because they’re going to be younger and want a transition.”

As more Democrats see the 2018 election as a potential catalyst for leadership change, tensions are running high, particularly between House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer of Maryland and Democratic Caucus Chair Joe Crowley of New York.

Longtime friends, Hoyer helped Crowley, first elected in 1998, rise through the ranks. Now, Hoyer allies are expressing frustration with Crowley, who appears to be positioning himself early.

Both say they have no plans to challenge Pelosi, aware that even if candidates pledge to vote against her, her hold on the caucus runs deep. Still, both are angling for her job, readying for a future contest.

Hoyer, 78, once considered the obvious heir, is shopping himself as the “bridge” to the new generation who is best equipped to steer the transition. Crowley, 56, is hitting the campaign trail hard and has openly mulled his leadership ambitions.

In an interview with Fox News earlier this month, Crowley left himself lots of wiggle room, saying he wants to “wait and see … if Nancy Pelosi decided not to run.” If she stays, he said, “I don’t see a scenario by which I would challenger her for that position.”

Crowley’s “sole focus,” said spokeswoman Lauren French, “is putting Democrats in the majority control of the House.”

But members in Hoyer’s corner are disturbed by what they see as an attempt to edge out the long-serving No. 2 and leapfrog the third-ranking Assistant Democratic Leader Jim Clyburn of South Carolina.

“It’s all about loyalty in this place,” said one Midwestern Democrat, confirming that Hoyer and Crowley’s relationship is strained.

Hoyer, members said, recruited, cultivated, and coached Crowley. When Hoyer faced a challenge from Pelosi favorite Rep. John Murtha of Pennsylvania in 2006, Crowley whipped aggressively for Hoyer.

But now the two close friends appear headed for battle. “There’s definitely ruffled feathers, “ said another House Democrat.

Hoyer’s allies point to the whip’s “authoritative voice” and “unrivaled” mastery of congressional procedure as the reason he should succeed Pelosi.

“Steny would be the presumptive favorite,” said Rep. Jamie Raskin, D-Md. “Nobody is going to be able to touch him in terms of being a dominating presence on the floor in the event that Leader Pelosi were to decide to go.”

Rep. Peter Welch, D-Vt., described Hoyer as a “member’s member” who “reaches out not only to senior members but spends an immense amount of time with younger members.”

Hoyer’s office would only say the whip’s “focus is on taking back the House in November.” He will continue traveling the country to “ensure we have a Democratic Majority in 2019,” said spokeswoman Mariel Saez.

But Crowley’s rise is foiling what could be Hoyer’s last shot at taking the top spot. The fourth-ranking Democrat has no shortage of supporters.

“Nancy and Steny need to take a message from Ryan’s retirement,” Texas Democrat Filemon Vela told the Washington Examiner. “I look forward to the day that Joe Crowley is leading the caucus.”

For Vela it’s about “loyalty” and backing the man who was his “mentor from the beginning.”

Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J., hasn’t hidden his desire for a new leader. Though he “would have absolutely no problem with Steny Hoyer,” Pascrell said he would “support” Crowley.

“Joe has not been there in position of leadership for that long, and I think we got to look to somebody new,” he said.

One Midwestern Democrat, speaking on the condition of anonymity, put it more bluntly.

“Steny Hoyer will never be the leader,” the member said.

An advocate for leadership change, Rep. Scott Peters, D-Calif., wants to see Pelosi and Hoyer plan and guide a transition, hoping it could clear the air within the caucus.

“There’s a lot of uncertainty about where the party’s headed and leadership could do a lot — both of them — to help us understand what their intentions are because it’s tough to keep guessing,” Peters said.

Crowley will have to make a choice, members said in more than a dozen interviews with the Examiner. He either challenges Pelosi regardless the outcome in November or waits and challenges Hoyer when Pelosi retires. A race pitting Crowley against Hoyer, members speculated, is possible.

Much of it will ultimately depend upon Pelosi herself and whether Democrats take back the majority. If Democrats gain 50 seats, the case against her will be significantly weakened. Already polls are showing that the tried and tested GOP demonization of Pelosi is losing its bite. Sixty percent of voters say it’s not important for a candidate to share their view of Pelosi.

Though Pelosi’s opponents are eagerly awaiting a freshman class they think could mount a revolt, few candidates have yet to unequivocally make that commitment. Many say they want new leadership but stop short of declarative statements. Once those Democrats make it past the primary to the general election, it’s a different ballgame, one in which they’re likely to benefit from Pelosi’s fundraising prowess. She raised more than $4.5 million in the first week of April alone.

At that point, it could become more difficult, in the “Year of the Woman,” to say no to the Democratic leader and former speaker one ally called “the best vote counter” in Congress.