The Senate 2022 midterm election map has transformed again against Democrats, and there is not much President Joe Biden can do about it.
Democrats’ hopes of at least keeping the Senate this November have dimmed as polls in such battleground states as Georgia and Nevada capture closer contests. But although Biden’s approval ratings have improved and he has hit the road this week to survey hurricane-ravaged Puerto Rico and Florida, it is unclear whether presidential travel to Georgia and Nevada will help the Democratic incumbents.
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Control of the evenly divided Senate rests on whether Democrats can win their Arizona, Colorado, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire races. While polls have been wrong in the past, Sens. Mark Kelly (D-AZ), Michael Bennet (D-CO), and Maggie Hassan (D-NH) do appear to be in a stronger position than Sens. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-NV) and Raphael Warnock (D-GA).
Warnock would probably prefer if Biden steered clear of Georgia, given the president’s popularity “is upside down” by 20 percentage points, according to Charles Bullock, University of Georgia politics chairman. Warnock’s opponent is former NFL player Herschel Walker.
“One recent poll showed him 30% approve-50% disapprove, but among independents, it’s about a 30-point spread,” Bullock said of Biden. “To the extent that those are the persuadables who you’re trying to influence, only 27% of independents approve of what he’s doing.”
Biden did boost Warnock, a student loan debt forgiveness advocate who raised $26.3 million in the third quarter of this year, with his decision to cancel $10,000 in debt for borrowers earning less than $125,000 per annum and $20,000 for eligible Pell Grant recipients. But although Biden’s announcement has mitigated some younger Democrats’ disappointment with the president, the policy is simultaneously divisive amid concerns about Biden’s economic management.
Meanwhile, Cortez Masto’s contest against former Nevada Attorney General Adam Laxalt (R) has embodied Biden and Democrats’ problems with Latino and Hispanic enthusiasm. Cortez Masto, the first Latina senator who raised more than $15 million in 2022’s third quarter, has also been hamstrung by the economy after pandemic shutdowns and September’s 8.3% annual inflation rate.
When not at the White House, Camp David, in Delaware, on vacation, or overseas, Biden’s travel has predominantly been to the Midwest, particularly Pennsylvania. The president and first lady did fly to Nevada last January for former Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s funeral. The president, too, has been to Georgia twice as commander in chief: last January to deliver a voting rights speech and in April 2021 to promote his $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan.
The Republican National Committee, which has raised more than $273.6 million since 2020, has 80 staff members in Georgia and “dozens” in Nevada, according to spokeswoman Nicole Morales. Many of them work out of one of the six RNC community centers across the two states, knocking on 3.5 million doors and phoning 1.7 million people to date.
“Joe Biden has done nothing to help his party, and every Democrat is vulnerable because of their allegiance to the failed Biden agenda,” Morales said. “This election will be a referendum on Biden and Democrats’ reckless spending, historic inflation, out-of-control crime, and failed open border policies.”
A Democratic National Committee official credited Biden with assisting the party to raise more than $107 million, a record for this point in any electoral cycle and midterm grassroots fundraising ever. That money has meant the DNC has been able to spend at least $70 million on state-based midterm programs, compared to the $30 million doled out on its entire 2018 strategy.
DNC involvement in eight battleground states, including Georgia and Nevada, started in spring 2021, eight months earlier than previous seasons, according to the official.
“This overwhelming show of support reflects the broad level of excitement and support for President Biden’s agenda,” she told the Washington Examiner. “The DNC’s investments fund integral coordinated campaign infrastructure, such as staff focused on organizing, data, communications, voter protection and more, as well as tech and tools for voter and volunteer outreach [in addition to] access to Democrats’ voter file at no cost.”
Warnock averages less than a point lead over Walker, according to RealClearPolitics, but he is 2.1 points ahead, according to FiveThirtyEight. Laxalt averages a 2.2-point edge over Cortez Masto, according to RealClearPolitics, yet he is less than a point in front, according to FiveThirtyEight.
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Wisconsin is the only Republican-held Senate seat that is a toss-up, according to the Cook Political Report. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) averages a 3-point advantage over Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes (D), according to RealClearPolitics, and 1.9 points, according to FiveThirtyEight. Democrats’ backup, Pennsylvania, seems to be diminishing as a pick-up opportunity. Lt. Gov. John Fetterman (D-PA) averages 4.1 points on doctor and television presenter Mehmet Oz (R), according to RealClearPolitics, and 6 points, according to FiveThirtyEight.
