Less than a month out from the election, President Trump is settling scores and serving up red meat to his base. He is projecting defiance of the pandemic that robbed him of the economic boom that once looked likely to propel him to a second term, declassifying material related to the Russia investigation that supporters feared would hound him from office, and breaking off negotiations with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on a new COVID-19 assistance package that might have juiced economic numbers before Election Day.
Instead, Trump is pressing forward with a Supreme Court nomination before the end of the year, a move that splits the public, according to a Washington Examiner/YouGov poll. But as another round of national and swing-state polls show the president trailing Democratic challenger Joe Biden, some are questioning the strategy behind boosting Trump’s appeal with voters who are already likely to be in his camp.
“Trump’s team has clearly made the calculated decision to appeal directly and full-throatedly to his base,” said veteran Republican strategist and pollster Frank Luntz. “The problem with that misguided strategy is that it will only get you to 47% of the vote. If he actually wants to win, he needs the support of a few 2016 Clinton voters as well.”
“Gee, look: He’s tweeting again about something only a narrow segment of Republicans care about or even think is an issue,” commented columnist Damon Linker. “It’s like he only wants votes from the 5 million people who watch Hannity every night.”
Even among Trump voters, there is a split between people who like him because of his combativeness and those who simply want conservative policies rather than turning the government over to an increasingly liberal Democratic Party.
“Trump’s base has never been rock solid,” tweeted GOP pollster Patrick Ruffini. “His Strongly Approve doesn’t beat his Somewhat Approve by that much. They have significant problems with his tweeting and demeanor. It’s just not enough to make them vote Democrat.”
The president has fallen behind Biden among voters aged 65 and up, a key GOP constituency, in a number of polls. He could use shoring up among Catholics. And Trump needs to do better in the battleground states, where he is down nearly 5 points in the RealClearPolitics polling average. Biden is leading by 9.4 points in the same average nationally, with the last six national polls included showing him winning between 51% and 57% of the vote to Trump’s 40% to 43%.
Barring a polling malfunction that vastly exceeds the industry’s problems in 2016, Trump has a lot of ground to make up and little time to do it. Yet on Tuesday, hours before the vice presidential debate, he posted an all-caps tweet accusing Biden, Barack Obama, and “Crooked Hillary” Clinton of a “treasonous plot” that should render the Democratic nominee ineligible to run this year.
“Absolutely, they seem focused on voters they already have, but isn’t that the story of the entire Trump presidency and campaign?” said Republican strategist Christian Ferry. “It is why they have never grown their support and base and remain stuck in the mud.”
Ferry has joined other John McCain presidential campaign alumni in endorsing Biden this year, but GOP operatives who want Trump to win share this view. “At the end of the day, it’s about math,” said one who requested anonymity to speak candidly. “They don’t seem to be doing addition over there.”
Conservative commentator Erick Erickson shared with his readers Clinton’s leads in Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and North Carolina on Oct. 7 four years ago. Biden’s leads are slightly larger, but the point was also to illustrate that there is still time for a lot to change. Trump ended up winning all of those states in 2016.
Others point out that the Trump campaign is beating the Democrats at voter registration in important states. If the pandemic dents turnout, especially among Biden’s senior citizen supporters, in a way that mail-in voting doesn’t entirely offset, a base-centric strategy led by a president telling supporters not to let the coronavirus “dominate” them could potentially pay dividends.
“President Trump’s focus on fighting coronavirus, rebuilding the economy, and defending law and order has expanded his base of support with Americans from every corner of the nation,” said Trump campaign deputy national press secretary Samantha Zager. “While Joe Biden chooses to see our country as something to be ashamed of, surrendering to COVID, the mob, and our allies abroad, President Trump is running a campaign on boundless optimism and faith in the American way of life, which includes a roaring, post-COVID economy and the opportunity for many people to pursue their version of the American dream.”
But many Republicans are nervous as the finish line nears. “Not just for the White House,” said the GOP operative, “but for down-ballot races too.”
