Two weeks ago, I wrote that “unless things turn around, Republicans will definitely lose the Senate this fall.” That’s still true, and the odds of turning things around is slimmer as we get closer to Election Day.
Republicans currently have 53 seats in the Senate. They are likely to defeat Alabama Sen. Doug Jones (he’s the Democrat who beat Roy Moore in the special election in 2017). That would put the GOP at 54 seats.
So Democrats, in order to take over the Senate, need to gain 4 or 5 seats, depending on whether they win the presidency and vice presidency and thus get a tiebreaking vote in the chamber.
Four races are definitely leaning Democratic.
Former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper, a Democrat, is destroying Republican Sen. Cory Gardner in the polls. Hickenlooper is above or near 50% in every head-to-head poll in the last year. In the two latest polls, of 800 and 613 likely voters, respectively, Hickenlooper leads by 10 points and 7 points. Only one poll in the last year has shown Gardner above 42%. That’s dreadful for an incumbent.
In Arizona, Republican Sen. Martha McSally hasn’t led a poll since June. While one recent ABC News poll showed her trailing Democratic nominee Mark Kelly by only 1 point, the RealClearPolitics average shows her down 5.2 percentage points.
Republican Sen. Thom Tillis in North Carolina is trailing by 10 points in one recent poll and hasn’t led in a poll since June. He’s never exceeded 46% in any poll, and he’s averaging less than 41%.
Sen. Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, also hasn’t led in a poll since June, and her RealClearPolitics average is 42%.
Democratic pickups in Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, and Maine would make the Senate 50-50. The remaining battleground states are mostly on GOP turf.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is behind in Iowa. Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham in South Carolina is polling below 50% and is in a tie in the three most recent polls. Republican Sen. David Perdue in Georgia was behind in the latest Quinnipiac University poll. Montana Sen. Steve Daines, also a Republican, is well below 50% in most polls.
Republicans would have to win all four races from this second group or perhaps knock off Democratic Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan and still win 3 of 4 in order to keep the majority. The odds are against them.
