Congressional Republicans are facing several key hurdles to considering and passing an immigration bill when they return next week, which some say is already making it unlikely that they’ll be able to meet President Trump’s new demands for tough new legislation.
The president has tweeted since Sunday that the constant threat of illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border demands a border wall and more border security, and he proposed new ideas for legislation aimed at tightening up federal immigration laws to allow for longer detentions of illegal immigrants, among other changes. Even before the weekend, Trump was known to be disappointed after getting just a fraction of the $25 billion in border funding he wanted in the omnibus spending bill that he ultimately signed.
But after failing to do a deal with Democrats that would trade border funding for legislation to protect Dreamers, some Republicans will be hesitant to jump back into negotiations when they return.
“Conservatives are a lot more hesitant now to engage on it than they were when the president was first elected because they’re not sure the White House is going to be there backing it after they come out in full force for it,” one senior GOP aide said.
Recent White House comments that funding for the border wall can be delayed is also likely to make some GOP lawmakers hesitate.
“The White House has been rolling over and playing dead on this, too,” the aide said. “With all these funding fights, conservatives have reached out to the White House and they say, ‘No, no, it’s all right. We’re going to get [the border funding] next time.’ Well, we’ve had a half-dozen or so next times and now conservatives are reluctant to put their head on the line on this.”
Not all Republicans are interested in delays. The House Freedom Caucus, for example, remains steadfastly behind border legislation that Trump would support, but at the same time is wary of including anything for Dreamers in any deal that might be needed to get the deal done.
“The Freedom Caucus supports working now to increase border security, and would support efforts that ensure ICE agents and other law enforcement can do their jobs to keep U.S. citizens safe,” said an HFC source.
Republicans are also still struggling to make progress on a preferred border bill from House Judiciary Committee Chairman Bob Goodlatte, R-Va., and House Homeland Security Committee Chairman Michael McCaul, R-Texas. GOP leaders say they are still whipping this bill.
But some conservative lawmakers say leadership is paying the bill lip service and would rather delay it until after the midterm election.
“There’s a lot of palpable discontent among conservatives for a lack of inaction on the border,” the aide said. “Leadership is claiming strenuously that they’re whipping it, but there’s no evidence to support that.”
“If you look at any of the agenda items that are presented at conference and retreats, the legislative timelines and agendas have been rolled out with a month-by-month breakdown, Goodlatte/McCaul isn’t on any of those,” the aide continued. “The data that’s being presented to rank-and-file members, senior staff is contrary to the claim that, ‘We’re whipping it and it’s actively being worked on.'”
Despite conservative skepticism, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La., continues to whip the Goodlatte bill and is a supporter of the legislation.
“Whip Scalise is a cosponsor of the Goodlatte-McCaul bill and continues working to grow the vote on this legislation, which achieves the goals the president set forth in his framework,” said Chris Bond, a Scalise spokesman.
But even if the House can find a way forward, the major roadblock is still the Senate, where 60 votes will be needed to pass any bill, and where several Republicans are likely to oppose a bill that Trump supports.
Trump has called repeatedly on Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., to use the nuclear option on the legislative filibuster in order to move legislation with just a simple majority vote, but the Kentucky Republicans has reiterated his opposition to the move.
And it’s not clear even the nuclear option would help. In February, McConnell called up a border bill backed by Trump that won just 39 GOP votes.
