President Joe Biden and the Democratic Party may have fallen into a complacency trap set, in part, by polling and arrogance that led to shock results in gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia.
Biden now has to grapple with what the results mean for his stuck-in-Congress legislative priorities and how he will lead his party through what is expected to be a tough midterm cycle.
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A Senate Democratic aide disagreed the party had rested on its laurels or had overestimated goodwill toward it following Virginia gubernatorial nominee Terry McAuliffe’s loss and a surprisingly close race for New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy.
The reason McAuliffe lost to Glenn Youngkin was that the one-time governor and Democratic National Committee chairman ditched his primary contest strategy of promoting his economic and education accomplishments, nationalizing the general by focusing on former President Donald Trump, the aide told the Washington Examiner.
“The blame isn’t on Congress necessarily, but it’s on Democrats who don’t know how to run on a vision and on a disciplined messaging campaign,” the staffer said. “Terry was talking about Trump 24/7 starting in the summer and then sometimes about vaccine mandates. He was basically chasing the wind when he could’ve talked about his record.”
A second Senate aide downplayed tensions between the Democratic progressive and centrist lawmakers over Biden’s $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure deal and $1.75 trillion partisan social welfare and climate framework. The staffer said news outlets’ fixation on “the blame game” rather than “the significant policy changes that are in play” was striking.
Biden addressed the elections at the White House Wednesday, rejecting responsibility and contending “people want us to get things done.” He did say that progressive House Democrats blocking the infrastructure deal for concessions from centrist senators regarding the broader framework should have passed the Senate-approved infrastructure package before Tuesday. But he was unsure it would have helped McAuliffe, despite McAuliffe’s protestations.
“I’m not sure I would have been able to change the very conservative folks who turned out in red districts who were Trump voters, but maybe, maybe,” Biden said after returning from Europe.
McAuliffe lost to Youngkin this week, one year after Biden trounced Trump in the commonwealth by double digits. Ignoring polling and more anecdotal crowd size warning signs, conventional wisdom suggested McAuliffe, who was seeking a second nonconsecutive term, would eke out a victory in an electorate that has trended liberal for a decade.
“We’re going to win. I think we’re going to win in Virginia,” Biden told reporters before departing Glasgow, Scotland, after the United Nations 26th climate summit.
Instead, McAuliffe conceded to Youngkin, who led on average by 1.7 percentage points before voting ended, according to RealClearPolitics. The race was called late Tuesday when Youngkin, a former private equity executive, was 2.1 points ahead, with 95% of precincts reporting.
But the bigger surprise has been the tight contest between Murphy and Jack Ciattarelli, a former businessman and state member. On Wednesday evening, the Associated Press called the race for Murphy, but the results were so close that Ciattarelli declined to concede and a recount appeared likely.
Pollster David Paleologos defended his profession’s New Jersey work, referring to late surveys that found Murphy was up by 4 points.
“The high single-digit polling was off, probably outside the margin of error in many cases, but wasn’t that far off,” he said.
Paleologos disagreed with the White House and progressive Democrats, who are adamant McAuliffe’s defeat is a signal to clear the far-left programs proposed in Biden’s social welfare and climate spending framework. But West Virginia centrist Sen. Joe Manchin is reading the tea leaves differently.
“Let’s take time to do it right. Let’s make sure that people know what’s in it,” Manchin told reporters Wednesday.
For Paleologos, New Jersey and Virginia indicate voters are more aligned with centrist than progressive Democrats, “which is going to potentially impact the negotiations.”
Paleologos dismissed the liberal argument that far-left policies will boost enthusiasm. Roughly 1.6 million voters cast ballots for McAuliffe, more than the 1.4 million who supported outgoing Democratic Gov. Ralph Northam in his 2017 landslide against Republican Ed Gillespie. McAuliffe’s problem was almost 1.7 million backed Youngkin, according to Paleologos.
“That doesn’t tell me there was complacency on the Democratic side, statistically,” the Suffolk University Political Research Center director said. “What it does tell me is that there was amped-up Republican turnout on steroids, not only in rural areas but in suburban areas, driven by local issues that Youngkin took advantage of.”
Republicans will now likely recruit candidates similar to Youngkin, who can straddle Trump’s base and establishment sensibilities, creating vulnerabilities for Democrats undecided concerning Biden’s framework, the pollster added.
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“It’s politics, so it’s survival for moderate Democrats who don’t want to be Youngkin-ed in 2022,” he said.
