JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. — Republicans here believe lingering GOP resentment over how Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh was treated in his confirmation hearings will help Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley win Democrat Claire McCaskill’s Senate seat next week.
“There are only a few certainties in life: death, taxes, and conservatives being energized by the Justice Kavanaugh smear campaign,” Hawley’s press secretary Kelli Ford told the Washington Examiner.
A late poll from Missouri has Hawley up about 4 points over McCaskill, who voted with most Democrats against Kavanaugh in the final vote in the Senate.
McCaskill doesn’t sit on the Senate Judiciary Committee, so she wasn’t able to question him directly about the sexual assault allegations against him. But Republican voters around the country have been jolted after watching Democrats argue that the unproven accusations from Christine Blasey Ford, and others, should disqualify the nominee.
In Missouri, some think McCaskill’s association with Democratic tactics could be enough to put Hawley over the top. A source close to the campaign told the Washington Examiner that the leak of Ford’s letter to the press outlining her sexual assault allegations against Kavanaugh was “probably the biggest moment” in Hawley’s race so far.
“I think Republicans who may not have listed the president as their first preference realized they needed someone as tough as Trump to get Kavanaugh over the line,” a source close to the campaign said. “There now seems to be more focus on the margins because a Democratic take-over of the Senate is possible, and they saw what it would look like if they were in charge.”
Enthusiasm was already high among Democrats, so the controversy didn’t add any new people to their ledger, the source added.
The campaign’s confidence in a so-called “Kavanaugh effect” was echoed at the Veterans of Foreign Wars Post Tuesday night during the Cole County Republican Central Committee’s “get out the vote” supper in St. Martins, Mo., a GOP stronghold in the state.
“The debate over Kavanaugh will definitely inspire more people on the conservative side to come out and vote because the opposition only cared about destroying a life,” said Mark Rehagen, a teacher and central committee member, referring to Kavanaugh. “I do think anything like that needs to be considered to determine the validity of the accusations, but I also think ample time was given to look at their credibility.”
Carolyn McDowell, a former city councilwoman, an ex-public administrator, and businesswoman, agreed Kavanaugh would weigh on the minds of GOP likely voters, and maybe some independents, but she was less sympathetic toward Ford.
“I was a young woman once, and I don’t believe a word she said,” McDowell said.
Whether party loyalists reflect the average voter remains to be seen. When the Washington Examiner asked four self-described likely voters in Jefferson City, Mo., whether Kavanaugh would influence their decision at the ballot box, only one agreed, and that woman identified as a Democrat ready to support McCaskill.
