Reflecting rising tensions between the United States and China in the South China Sea, the Pentagon should invite Britain’s Royal Navy to station an attack submarine in Guam.
While Britain had previously considered deploying one of its new aircraft carriers to the South China Sea area, those plans appear to have been ruled out due to cost. But a submarine assignment would be cheaper and, in many ways, more useful to regional security. It would also complement the Royal Navy’s upcoming carrier deployment through the South China Sea next summer.
The first point to note is that Britain’s Astute-class nuclear attack submarines are some of the world’s finest. Fast, quiet, and maintained by well-trained crews, the submarines also support the 2076-sonar system. This array of capabilities allows the Astute boats, of which three are currently operational, with another presently in sea trials, to detect enemy surface and undersea warships at long range. This maximizes their potential of being able to stalk and sink a target before being seen. Moreover, with U.S. and British submarine forces operating in very close coordination and with extensive exchange programs, a forward-deployed Astute boat could rapidly integrate with the U.S. fleet.
Submarines have another value interest here. Namely, that U.S. aircraft carriers cannot confidently operate with the measure of range and security needed to penetrate Chinese ballistic missile strongholds within the First Island Chain. In turn, mastery of the undersea domain will be crucial to prospective victory in any conflict. The more Australian, British, and American submarines that are in the South China Sea, the more Chinese warships and supply convoys will be held at risk. This will undermine China’s ability to sustain its forces.
Guam would be especially beneficial as a forward station in that it has the existing infrastructure to support an Astute-class submarine. Four of the U.S. Navy’s 31 Pacific theater attack submarines are already based out of Guam. This location means they are just three days submerged sail to the middle of the South China Sea. In the event of conflict, Guam would thus support a surge of submarine forces into the fight.
There’s also an obvious political advantage to any forward deployment.
As it attempts to steal the South China Sea, China is relying on being able to prevent an alignment of nations against it. Beijing knows that its potential to succeed here will be greatly reduced if the U.S. is able to establish a naval alliance against it. Were Britain to forward deploy a submarine in support of that alliance, it would deter China from its present ambitions and encourage other nations to join the alliance.
Considering that China’s global strategy rests on the presumption that it can intimidate and bribe its way to a position of hegemony, the more nations that reject that approach, the less likely China is to succeed.
