The man who would be speaker

But with the midterm elections moving in from the horizon, it’s a different forecast the sitting House majority leader keeps in view. With a 23-seat majority in the House, prognosticators shooting off predictions and generic ballot polls showing everything from a neck-and-neck race to a landslide Democratic victory, the weather matters.

“We’ve had ups. We’ve had downs,” McCarthy says flashing a grin while his detail rolls from Pittsburgh International Airport to the Duquesne Club, where he is to attend a fundraiser for GOP Rep. Keith Rothfus. Rothfus is the only sitting Republican in a member vs. member contest against Democrat Rep. Conor Lamb, in the new 17th district that came into existence when the state’s congressional map was recently, and controversially, redrawn.

“It’s everything. It’s the climate. It’s the things that hit the White House. Today’s a good day,” McCarthy said, citing a trade deal between the U.S. and Mexico that was announced that morning. McCarthy talked with Jared Kushner earlier in the day and got a briefing about the deal.

But the previous week’s weather hadn’t been mild. Michael Cohen, the president’s former lawyer, pled guilty to paying two women during the 2016 campaign to cover up sexual encounters with the president. Paul Manafort, Trump’s former campaign manager, was found guilty of tax fraud. And Rep. Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., one of McCarthy’s fellow Southern California Republican members, was indicted for campaign finance crimes.

“Yeah. That’s the point,” McCarthy said of the trade news after the tumultuous week before. “Today.”

The majority leader is a shrewd political calculator and he’s redoubled his efforts to help Republicans keep hold of their precarious majority. He keeps alive his allied hope of replacing Rep. Paul Ryan as speaker of the House. The gavel might have been his three years ago, but he blew the race and had swiftly to abandon it.

Facing a blue wave

Few pundits and activists, including many Republicans, are optimistic that the GOP will keep the House. The best outcome to hope for is retaining the slimmest of slim majorities, which would allow Ryan’s replacement scant room for maneuvering. Casting a shadow over every Republican forecast, however, is the “blue wave” of their nightmares. Democrats have been gathering energy in special elections since last year.

But McCarthy sees it differently. “It’s not a wave. It’s a tornado,” he says in an interview later in his office. “A wave crushes over the entire nation. The tornado will touch down in different pockets.”

With Democrats enjoying a congressional ballot margin over Republicans of up to 14 points, and a minimum of 3 points, McCarthy concedes, “The weather got a little rougher for us. It needs to get a little calmer before the election. I’d like some blue skies.”

Many people have doubts about McCarthy, worrying that he is too flexible and holds few core beliefs or principles other than that its a good idea to form political relationships. He’s no policy wonk. But even his critics recognize that he is the party’s preeminent political animal in the House. He is king in the back-slapping world of grip-and-grin. He has been hyperactive. On the final months running up to the midterm elections, he is racking up frequent flier miles to campaign with beleaguered Republicans, even though few people give the GOP much chance of retaining control of the House. In the week before traveling to Pittsburgh, McCarthy’s schedule took him to Wyoming, Idaho, Nevada, Ohio, Maine and New York.

“It all mixes together,” he says. But it is tiring. He sits in his gray suit ready for action, but he loosens his purple tie and yarns cavernously. He doesn’t drink coffee despite his intense schedule. “Nope. Never drank it in my life,” McCarthy said. He also rarely drinks alcohol, especially during campaign season.

Thanks in large part to his round-the-clock fund raising, McCarthy has hauled in more than $50 million during the 2018 cycle, including at least $3 million that he handed over to the National Republican Congressional Committee and candidates through Protect The House, his joint venture with Vice President Mike Pence. In total, he has distributed $15 million since starting the group. McCarthy announced the figures at a recent House GOP conference meeting, according to Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio.

This largesse has also caught the attention of Republican lawmakers of every stripe. Stivers, the NRCC chairman who McCarthy has worked with closely, believes that if the majority is salvaged, the lion’s share of credit will belong to McCarthy.

“We could not keep the majority without Kevin McCarthy,” Stivers said, “His work is vital.”

A dinner McCarthy is hosting on Sept. 27 at Trump Hotel, to which the president is coming, is expected to raise $15-20 million toward Protect The House’s coffers, Stivers says.

McCarthy’s stamp on the conference is also apparent in the “Young Guns” program he started a decade ago with Ryan and former Majority Leader Eric Cantor. More than 50 House members are alumni of the program, including Stivers and Rep. Andy Barr, R-Ky. Sens. Bill Cassidy, R-La., and Cory Gardner, R-Colo., also come from the program.

McCarthy’s skills could also prove effective in his own backyard. As Democrats try to win traditionally Republican Southern California and Orange County, McCarthy pushed hard to put Proposition 6, which repeals the gas tax, on to the November ballot. The issue, which is akin to Karl Rove’s work to include anti-gay marriage amendments on the ballot in Ohio in 2004, could prove potent. A state senator was recalled and voted out of office for supporting the tax.

McCarthy also ensured that John Cox was on the ballot for governor against Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, and persuaded Trump to endorse him. This could help bring out conservative and right-wing voters and perhaps aid the electoral survival of Republican Reps. Mimi Walters, Jeff Denham, and David Valadeo.

“That is going to be several points in every race and that’s going to be the difference in a number of races in California,” said Corry Bliss, head of the Congressional Leadership Fund, where McCarthy has taken an active role since Ryan announced that he will retire.

“We wouldn’t be in the position to win those races without Kevin McCarthy’s leadership,” Bliss said.

Quest for leadership

Still, questions remain about McCarthy’s second effort to grab the speaker’s gavel.

McCarthy says, “I’m willing to take a risk. I’m willing to fail at things, because I think I learn from them at the same time, and I’ve always believed in constant improvement and education. … I think that combination has all worked. I’ve always said timing was the most important part of politics. It may be on a personal level the right timing for me, but it may not be the opportunity. Am I ok with that? Yeah.”

Supporters say McCarthy was humbled by his failure in 2015 and has worked on what were weaknesses, including messaging and speaking ability. His most damaging gaffe three years ago was a comment to Sean Hannity that the special investigation of the fiasco in Benghazi that left four Americans dead was an attempt to damage Hillary Clinton’s poll numbers.

“He’s handled setbacks well. I don’t think he had had any big setbacks in his career, and I think people admire that,” said Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., an ally. “When you get knocked down, you get back up. I think he’s been a better majority leader… He’s always been pretty good, but I think he actually got better. Nobody’s been more selfless in advancing the interests of the team and working hard to make sure we all come back.

“People look at him with a great deal of respect because, in a sense, he stepped back for the good of the team,” Cole said, adding that he still believes McCarthy would have gotten to 218 three years ago if he had stuck it out. “I think he’s more interested now in winning games than scoring points.”

They also refer to his most visible quality, personality and relationships with members, as a main driver of his support within the conference. Friends and colleagues say McCarthy is uniquely able to recall moments and dates that are important to his 23 congressional colleagues.

“He’s impossible to not like,” said Rep. Trey Gowdy, R-S.C., one of McCarthy’s closest friends in the House. “My mom had hip surgery. I have no idea how he found out. I have no idea how he found out what hospital she was at, but not only did he send her flowers, my mom wanted to thank him and he begins a text conversation with my mom.

“He remembers members’ anniversaries better than the members remember their anniversaries. If you’re a member of Congress, your spouse is just as likely to get a ‘Happy Anniversary’ text from Kevin McCarthy as they are from their spouse,” said Gowdy, who, along with Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C. , another close friend McCarthy, dined with him to celebrate Valentine’s Day this year.

“His wife wasn’t here, my wife wasn’t here, and Tim Scott doesn’t have a wife,” Gowdy said with a laugh.

But have GOP conference dynamics changed enough over the past three years for McCarthy to win?

“He’s everybody’s friend, and when you’re everybody’s friend, you’re nobody’s friend. You can’t be everybody’s friend. You can’t be. I think he’s going to have some problems,” said one GOP House member, pointing to missed opportunities to get members floor time for local needs. McCarthy’s team took issue with the critique, noting each GOP freshmen has had a legislative priority pass on the floor in each of the past two Congresses.

McCarthy will face opposition from the Freedom Caucus. Despite an improved relationship with Rep. Mark Meadows, N.C., the group’s chairman, there are still questions and doubts about what kind of deal McCarthy would have to strike a deal with the right-wing group, which is expected to have about 40 members if Republicans retain their majority.

According to another House Republican, McCarthy has had “general discussions” with various factions to broker a deal, but McCarthy himself demurs, saying his talks, including those with Meadows, range across many topics.

“Not from a point where you need this or that,” said McCarthy, describing his haggling with Meadows, “We’ve had conversations and we’ve had that prior to the scenario of [Ryan] departing. How do we work more as one? Meadows and I get along well and we work well together. Now can we get everybody to work well together?”

Rep. Jim Jordan, who says he is running for speaker to win the job, not as a ploy to increase the influence of the Freedom Caucus, is especially concerned about about the concentration of power in the Steering Committee, a source close to Jordan said.

If Republicans retain the House, they will also have to decide what they want for Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., the chief majority whip. Scalise worked with McCarthy nearly 20 years ago, and endorsed him for the top spot. But he is himself interested in the speakership if McCarthy cannot secure it. Allies of both members play down suggestions of rivalry between them. Keeping the house is their shared goal, these people say.

“I owe Steve Scalise my life,” said Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., a Scalise ally who was on a baseball field in Alexandria last June when the whip was shot and almost killed during practice for the Congressional Baseball Game. “But Steve’s not running. Steve said he’s supportive of Kevin, and I am, too.”

The Instagram story

Despite wanting to damp down discussion of the speakership and focus on holding the majority, McCarthy loves the intrigue of politics.

In the late morning of July 25, McCarthy was about to do one of his favorite things: speak to a group about politics. The event was hosted by Turning Point USA, a pro-Trump group best known for its goal to “own the libs” and its leader, Charlie Kirk, a 24-year old with a startlingly-high profile. McCarthy is excited to see him.

“Do you know Charlie Kirk at all?” McCarthy asked the Washington Examiner during a ride to George Washington University, where the conference was hosted. The answer was “no.” McCarthy’s face lit up.

“You’ve got to meet this kid,” he said, “He’s doing an amazing job.”

McCarthy cut his teeth as chairman of Young Republicans, a group made up of politically-motivated young adults, after being denied an internship 30 years ago in the office of former Rep. Bill Thomas, who represented Bakersfield and who McCarthy later replaced in Congress. This has led McCarthy to hand out internships to as many students as can fit into his offices at the Capitol and in the Rayburn House Office Building.

His 29-minute address at Georgetown is steeped in the optimism of President Reagan-led. He calls on his audience to focus on a “purpose-driven life” and to live as “happy conservatives.”

A staple of a McCarthy speech centers on the painting of George Washington crossing the Delaware River, to encourage listeners to “row together.” He tells stories about Abraham Lincoln and Reagan, both of whom are featured prominently in paintings around his office.

For this Turning Point address McCarthy pulls out a wild card, a tale from Obama’s second inauguration about his appreciation for Instagram and the time he took a picture of Beyonce and Jay-Z at the podium where the president delivered his speech.

“I’m taking the picture on my phone thinking she’s going to want the picture, she’s going to give me her phone number,” McCarthy said. “It didn’t work out that way though.”

The picture is not only immortalized on his Instagram, but also earned him nearly 5,000 followers on the platform after cable news caught him taking the picture of the couple.

At the end of his speech, McCarthy’s final pitch to students included a plea for them to vote in the fall to prevent House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., from becoming speaker again.

“I do not want to see Nancy to come back as speaker,” McCarthy said. “I want the next speaker to come from California, I just don’t want it to be Nancy. I want it to be me.”

The comments were the clearest McCarthy had made until that point about wanting the post. With his team already in damage control in the ride back to Capitol Hill in his detail, he wonders what the fuss is.

“The point is we have to have the majority. You’re missing the point,” McCarthy tells his staff. “You’re stressing out. My gosh … You’re all quiet.”

Three seconds later, he turns to a reporter.

“So did you get the Beyonce story?” McCarthy said. “I still have it up on my Instagram.”

CORRECTION: An earlier version of this story gave the wrong office at which McCarthy was denied an internship. The office belonged to former Rep. Bill Thomas.