Kim Jong Un has his prestigious photo, and President Trump has his piece of paper.
At this first stage, it’s clear Kim is the overwhelming winner. Perhaps Trump will soon show us his own win — wide-ranging inspector access to North Korea — but Kim holds the strategic initiative thus far. After all, Kim has won international prestige, time towards covert completion of his intercontinental ballistic missile warhead vehicle, and the extraordinary suspension of U.S. military exercises in South Korea. In return, Trump has won promises and the repatriation of U.S. war dead, but nothing else. And while that repatriation is valuable, it is not relevant to the exigent purpose of this summit: removing a critical national security threat.
Of course, perhaps Kim will now deliver the goods. Trump says that Kim has agreed to a verified denuclearization process and the statement signed by both leaders affirms that “The United States and the DPRK commit to hold follow-on negotiations, led by the US Secretary of State, Mike Pompeo, and a relevant high-level DPRK official, at the earliest possible date, to implement the outcomes of the US-[North Korea] summit.” Pompeo is now on his way to Seoul and Beijing to begin implementing the deal.
That sounds good.
Yet, unless we see International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors on North Korean soil within the next three weeks, it will be clear that Kim is playing Trump for a fool. That’s because those inspectors are the true measure of Kim’s seriousness. Only immediate snap-notice inspection authority across North Korea would physically prove Kim’s willingness to make major physical concessions in contradiction of his previously rendered strategy. That former strategy being the completion of a credible long-range nuclear strike capability with which to deter external aggression and extort external concessions. Inspector access would also signal Kim’s willingness to challenge hardliners such as Kim Yong Chol who have no interest in ceding North Korea’s most prized assets.
But inspections wouldn’t simply serve as a symbolic faith building exercise. They would also begin the effort of ascertaining what nuclear/ballistic missile capabilities North Korea has established and thus what capabilities it must verifiably dismantle. This process will not be easy or quick. One source working directly on the situation in North Korea told me that there are at least “one hundred areas to go through” in relation to nuclear and ballistic missile sites of concern.
Kim has got his photograph. Now, it’s time for Trump to deliver the goods.
