Esper warns of tough decisions in Pentagon budget due out next month

“That requires again, a whole new way of thinking, new warfighting concepts, new technologies,” Esper said at the Center for Strategic and International Studies last week. “It’s going to be hard and change is tough and most people don’t like to change, but we have to do it if we’re going to be successful in the future.”

TOPLINE FLATLINING: In the first three years of the Trump administration, the defense budget went from $700 billion in FY 2018, to $716 billion FY 2019 to $738 billion in FY2020, as Congress managed to agree to lift the spending limits imposed by the now defunct Budget Control Act of 2011.

But the two-year bipartisan budget deal reached last summer caps the defense budget at $740 billion, a mere $2 billion more, which barely keeps up with inflation.

“I’ve been telling the Pentagon now for two and a half years that our budgets aren’t going to get any better. They are where they are,” Esper said. “And so we have to be much better stewards of the taxpayers’ dollar.”

OUT WITH THE OLD: “We have to bridge this gap now between what was Cold War-era systems and the counter-insurgency low intensity fight of last 18 years, and make this leap into Great Power competition with Russia and China, China principally,” Esper says. And that will require letting go of weapons and systems that have been near and dear to commanders’ hearts for decades.

“That means divesting of legacy things, divesting of things that don’t deliver a high ROI, [Return on investment] relative to others,” he says. “We’re at this moment in time. We have a new strategy, a very good strategy, the NDS, we have a lot of support from Congress and we have to bridge this gap.”

ESPER’S IMPACT: For the first half of 2019, the Pentagon was under the stewardship of Patrick Shanahan, the deputy secretary, who was in an acting capacity. Esper didn’t take over until late July, when much of the budget groundwork was already well in hand.

*I had some ability to affect the direction, but not as much as I will have the next go around,” he told reporters who traveled with him to Florida last week. That, of course, assumes that President Trump wins a second term, and keeps Esper as his defense secretary.

When Esper was Army Secretary he instituted a top-to-bottom review of Army systems to free up money for new initiatives, a process dubbed “Night Courts,” which he said found $33 billion which could be put to better use.

As Pentagon chief Esper has continued the practice department wide, and the internal reviews have already borne fruit. “We found over $5 billion. That money is going in lethality and readiness and stuff like that.”

Part of the process is a review of all the current overseas deployments of U.S. troops, with an eye toward shifting away from far-flung counterterrorism missions, to countering the so-called great powers of China and Russia.

‘My aim is to free up time, money and manpower around the globe, where we currently are, so that I could direct it toward either that region or, secondly, return forces to the United States to prepare, to become more ready, to improve their readiness,” Esper said yesterday.

THE NEW PRIORITIES: While the FY 2021 budget won’t deliver an overall spending increase, there will be clear winners and losers. Where will the money go?

Modernizing nuclear weapons is a top priority, so the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent to replace the aging Cold War-era Minuteman III ICBMS and the new Air Force B-21 long-range strategic bomber — both under development by Northrop Grumman — will be fully funded.

“The strategic deterrent is number one,” said Esper, but he also said he plans to put more resources into space, and “modern weapons we need for future fights such as hypersonics, A.I., directed energy — things like that.”

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Susan Katz Keating (@SKatzKeating). Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: This morning begins a week of fourth quarter 2019 earnings reports from the major defense contractors, beginning with United Technologies (which is merging with Raytheon) at 8 a.m. and Lockheed Martin at 11 a.m. Then tomorrow we’ll get results from General Dynamics at 9 a.m. and Boeing 10:30 a.m., with Raytheon reporting on Thursday at 7 a.m.

ALSO TODAY: President Trump will be releasing his peace plan for Israelis and Palestinians at 12 noon. He has called the proposed deal a “suggestion” for both sides. Speaking alongside Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House, Trump hailed the plan as “a big step” toward peace.

“No matter where I went, they say Israel and the Palestinians, they have to make peace before you can really have peace in the Middle East,” Trump told reporters. “People have been working on this for many, many years, and I think we’re relatively close to that,” he said, insisting “many of the Arab nations have agreed” to the plan.

The president said Netanyahu supports the approach, which was spearheaded by Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, although Palestinians have already rejected the plan.

S’IL VOUS PLAÎT, NE PARTEZ PAS: French Defense Minister Florence Parly made a public plea for the United States to remain engaged in Africa. She said the military relationship between the two NATO allies is “as solid as ever,” and that France knows “perfectly, Washington’s priorities, which are increasingly looking towards the Far East.”

“We understand that,” Parly said at a joint news conference with Esper after a morning meeting at the Pentagon, but added, “The U.S. support is critical to our operations and that its reduction would severely limit our effectiveness against terrorists.”

Esper said his review of the U.S. counterrorism mission in Africa is not complete, and “no decisions yet have been made.”

“In due course, we will make them. I’ve been consulting now with Minister Parly for many months, and we will continue to do so as we make decisions and as we consult, going forward.”

Esper credited France for being “a real leader” in the Sahel region of northern Africa, noting its commitment of thousands of soldiers, but — echoing a theme of the Trump administration — said other countries need to fill the departing boots of the Americans.

“France has reached out to other European allies,” he said. “I think it’s time for other European allies to assist, as well, in the region, and that could offset whatever changes we make as we consider next steps in Africa.”

Parley reiterated that U.S. support “is really critical to our operations,” especially in light of this month’s agreement between France and the G-5 nations of West Africa to combine their military forces, as well as Paris’s commitment of an additional 220 French troops.

“So in this very particular moment, where the head of states, the G-5, Sahel and President Macron decided to increase the efforts not only in the military field, but also on the political field. “It seemed that it’s even more necessary to keep this American support. “

WAR POWERS STALLED: Two weeks ago Virginia Democrat Sen. Tim Kaine announced that he had secured the support of four Republicans, enough for the 51-vote simple majority needed to pass his resolution barring President Trump from going to war with Iran without congressional authorization.

But then impeachment happened, and so far he has been unable to get a vote scheduled, as the trial has taken up all the Senate’s time. It’s uncertain how long the impeachment proceeding will last, now that there is renewed debate about hearing from witnesses, including possible former national security adviser John Bolton.

Democrats in the House return from recess next week, and are expected to vote on two additional war powers resolutions.

All the measures face a veto, or will just be ignored by the White House, which argues they are an unconstitutional infringement on executive power.

NAVY SEC NOMINEE IN LIMBO: With only nine months to go before the 2020 election the fate of President Trump’s nominee to replace fired Navy Secretary Richard Spencer is uncertain.

Kenneth Braithwaite, the current U.S. ambassador to Norway, was nominated two months ago by Trump in the same tweet in which he announced Spencer’s “services had been terminated” for his handling of the case of Navy SEAL Eddie Gallagher as well as unspecified “cost overruns” and “contracting procedures.”

But so far his name has not been sent to the Senate, and hence he has not been officially nominated. A report by CBS News suggests the vetting of Braithwaite turned up an undisclosed relationship with Cambridge Analytica in 2017.

Braithwaite told CBS that he never worked for Cambridge Analytica, which was accused of misusing Facebook data to spread disinformation. “In a statement … Braithwaite acknowledged discussions with Cambridge Analytica, but said they were short-lived and that he never signed a contract or received payment from the company,” according to CBS.

AFGHANISTAN CRASH: The U.S. military has confirmed the crash of an Air Force E-11A Battlefield Airborne Communications Node aircraft yesterday in a Taliban-controlled area of Afghanistan, but has given no word on the fate of the crew.

“A U.S. Bombardier E-11A crashed today in Ghazni province, Afghanistan. While the cause of the crash is under investigation, there are no indications the crash was caused by enemy fire,” tweeted Col. Sonny Leggett, a spokesman for U.S. Forces Afghanistan. “Taliban claims that additional aircraft have crashed are false.”

The E-11A is a converted Bombardier Global Express Business jet loaded with specialized communications equipment, and was assigned to the 430th Expeditionary Electronic Combat Squadron, a geographically separated unit of the 455th Air Expeditionary Wing at Bagram Airfield, according to Air Force Magazine.

INDUSTRY WATCH:

Lockheed Martin has delivered the first C model of the F-35 to the Third Marine Air Wing at Marine Corps Air Station Miramar, California, marking another major milestone for the fifth generation stealthy fighter jet.

The C model has a tailhook, and is designed to operate from an aircraft carrier. “The F-35C’s control surfaces and landing gear are better equipped for carrier operation than the other variants,” said the Marine Corps in a press release. “The F-35C is equipped with larger internal fuel storage, which when combined with its ability to refuel in-flight, extends its range and allows for enhanced flight time when compared to other aircraft.”

BAE Systems has been awarded a prime position on a five-year, $34.9 million indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity contract to provide life cycle sustainment and technical support for the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division’s Special Communications Mission Solutions Division.

The contract was awarded through the Naval Air Warfare Center Aircraft Division Contracting Office, the company said in a release.

NAMES AND FACES: Army Command Sgt. Maj. Robert Teagle, currently assigned as the 3rd Special Forces Group command sergeant major, Fort Bragg, North Carolina, has been selected to replace Command Sgt. Maj. Michael Weimer as the command senior enlisted leader of the Special Operations Joint Task Force-Afghanistan, the Pentagon announced yesterday.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘How much does it cost?’: Stephanie Grisham accuses John Bolton of selling out ‘potential national security’

Washington Examiner: ‘A new stage in our war’: ISIS announces it will focus on Israel attacks

Washington Examiner: State Department removes NPR reporter from Pompeo travel pool after feud with outlet

AP: Iran, Photos Suggest A U.S.-Criticized Satellite Launch Looms

Breaking Defense: U.S. Builds Several New Bases In Iraq Near Iran

Talk Media News: France, US to work together in space — if not in Africa

Military.com: U.S. Conducted Record-Setting Bomb Drops Over Afghanistan in 2019

Wall Street Journal: How Putin Outfoxed Trump In Venezuela

Air Force Magazine: Goldfein Says 2021 Budget Buys Connectivity by Accepting Capacity Risk

Seapower Magazine: Brainpower Will Yield Advantage In ‘Great Power Competition,’ Navy Leaders Say

Marine Corps Times: To War, With Robots, Marines and robots fighting side by side. Here’s what the next war will look like

USNI News: Panel: China Now Well Positioned To Bully Neighbors In South China Sea

Japan Times: U.S. Navy Sails Warship Near Disputed Islands In South China Sea For First Time In 2020

Seapower Magazine: MH-60S Seahawk Helicopter the First Navy Aircraft Loss of 2020

Washington Examiner: ‘They split up the commemoration’: European divisions surface on anniversary of Auschwitz liberation

Calendar

TUESDAY | JANUARY 28

8 a.m. — United Technologies releases fourth quarter and full year 2019 earnings in a conference call webcast at https://edge.media-server.com

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118 — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “Security Update on the Korean Peninsula,” with John Rood, undersecretary of defense for policy and Lt. Gen. David Allvin, joint staff director for strategy, plans and policy. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

8:15 a.m. 2121 Crystal Dr. Arl, —- National Defense Industrial Association meeting of the Electronics Division, with Daniel Goldin, CEO and founder of KnuEdge; Derek Tournear, director of the Space Development Agency; David Davis, systems engineering division chief of the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center; and Patrick Murphy, strategic planning and integration director at NASA. https://www.ndia.org/events

9:30 a.m. 14th and F St. N.W. — National Press Club International Correspondents Committee discussion on “10 World Conflicts to Watch in 2020,” with former White House foreign affairs adviser Robert Malley, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group. https://www.press.org/events

11 a.m. Lockheed Martin webcasts fourth quarter and full year 2019 earnings results conference call, with Marillyn Hewson, chairman, president and chief executive officer; Ken Possenriede, executive vice president and chief financial officer; and Greg Gardner, vice president of investor relations. https://news.lockheedmartin.com

11 a.m. 1030 15th St. N.W. — Atlantic Council discussion on “Logistics: The Role of TRANSCOM in Great-Power Competition,” with Gen. Stephen Lyons, commander, U.S. Transportation command. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

2 p.m. 529 14th St. N.W. — Arms Control Association event “The Case for Extending New START,” with retired Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, former Air Force deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration; Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, R-Neb.; Madelyn Creedon, former principal deputy administrator, National Nuclear Security Administration, Department of Energy; Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies, American Enterprise Institute; and Alexander Vershbow, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and NATO deputy secretary general. Register at https://docs.google.com/forms

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. N.W. — United States Institute of Peace discussion on “Healing Afghanistan Through Art,” with Roya Rahmani, Afghanistan ambassador to the U.S.; Kabir Mokamel, co-founder and creative director of ArtLords; District of Columbia Youth Poet Laureate Marjan Naderi; Hamidullah Natiq, artist and local peace activist; Omaid Sharifi, co-founder and president of ArtLords; Johnny Walsh, senior expert at USIP; and Nancy Lindborg, president and CEO of USIP http://www.usip.org

WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 29

7:30 a.m. 300 First St. S.E. — Joint Chiefs Vice Chairman Air Force Gen. John Hyten speaks at the Air Force Association “Breakfast Series.” https://www.afa.org/events

9 a.m. — General Dynamics webcasts fourth quarter and full-year 2019 financial results conference. https://www.gd.com

10:30 a.m. — The Boeing Company releases financial results for the fourth quarter of 2019 in a conference call with President and CEO David Calhoun and Chief Financial Officer and Executive Vice President of Enterprise Performance & Strategy Greg Smith. Webcast at http://event.on24.com

11:30 a.m. 1667 K St. N.W. — Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessment discussion of new report, “Taking Back the Seas: Transforming the U.S. Surface Fleet for Decision-Centric Warfare,” with Acting Navy Secretary Thomas Modly. https://files.constantcontact.com

THURSDAY | JANUARY 30

7 a.m. — Raytheon Company releases 2019 fourth quarter and full-year results on its website, followed by a conference call at 9 a.m. Jan. 30, 2020. Audiocast www.raytheon.com/ir

9 a.m. G50 Dirkson. — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the Defense Authorization request for Fiscal Year 2021 and the Future Years Defense Program, with Army Gen. Stephen Townsend, U.S. Africa Commander; and Adm. Craig Faller, U.S. Southern Commander. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings