Mike Bloomberg’s pledge to spend $100 million in Florida is less problematic for President Trump than might appear, with Republicans skeptical the investment will sink the incumbent, force him to spend much more money in the state, or allow Democratic nominee Joe Biden to reallocate resources to other battlegrounds.
Biden and Trump are running even in Florida, where both campaigns and outside groups on the Left and Right are saturating television airwaves and digital platforms with advertisements in English and Spanish. Combined with the polarizing nature of a presidential race that features few undecided voters, Republican strategists with experience running campaigns in Florida are doubtful Bloomberg’s plan to add to the cacophony will measurably move the needle.
“There is no amount of money that Bloomberg can spend that will change the outcome of the election in Florida,” said Republican operative Curt Anderson, senior adviser to Florida Sen. Rick Scott. “It’s a complete joke and an overhyped media story. Trump is going to carry Florida, and there is nothing that small little man can do about it.”
A Bloomberg spokesman did not respond to emails requesting comment.
Biden leads Trump in Florida by an average of 1.6 percentage points — as good as a tie. Not all Republican strategists who doubt Bloomberg’s ability to impact the race for Florida’s critical 29 Electoral College votes are as convinced of a Trump victory as Anderson. But they argue Bloomberg’s largesse would have gone further had he opened his wallet earlier in the campaign and funded a robust voter turnout operation to go with paid advertising.
With Election Day less than 50 days out, and given how much advertising time is already reserved, political media buyers question whether Bloomberg can even find enough available space to present $100 million worth of advertising effectively on English and Spanish language digital platforms and television stations. But assuming Bloomberg tries, his expenditures will raise advertising rates across the board, including for both presidential campaigns and allied groups.
Republican strategists monitoring Florida say Bloomberg’s million might have been more consequential if opinions about Trump were not so fixed and if there were a significant universe of persuadable voters. “I just don’t know what voter is sitting out there thinking: ‘I really don’t know who to vote for, but I’m going to wait and see what Bloomberg says in a 30-second ad,’” a Republican consultant said.
Bloomberg, 78, is the former mayor of New York City and founder of Bloomberg News.
The billionaire media mogul mounted a late bid for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, spending more than $1 billion of his own money in a period of four months, but failed to gain traction with voters and dropped out. But the millions he poured into the midterm elections two years earlier were decisive in helping Democrats win control of the House, and some Republicans are being more circumspect in their assessment of Bloomberg’s Florida plans.
These Republicans caution that $100 million in the final seven weeks of a bare-knuckle campaign is too much money to ignore. It could tip the contest to Biden, they say, if the spots are well crafted, their messages are appealing, and voters are targeted efficiently. In that case, Trump, who is advertising aggressively in Florida despite pulling back elsewhere because of money woes, might need more assistance from conservative outside groups.
“When you say $100 million, you’ve got to pay attention to that if you’re the Republican National Committee, the Trump campaign, et cetera,” said David Johnson, a veteran GOP operative based in Tallahassee, Florida’s capital.
In part to assuage concerns among establishment Democrats that his presidential campaign would disrupt the party, Bloomberg promised to invest millions of his own money on the eventual nominee.
Other than an $18 million donation to the Democratic National Committee, Bloomberg’s announcement that he would spend $100 million to boost Biden in Florida marks his first major investment of the general election campaign. Democratic insiders are welcoming the assistance.
But like Republicans, Democrats are acknowledging that the cash injection will not enable Biden to reduce his footprint in Florida and direct resources to other competitive states. Democrats concede that how helpful Bloomberg is in Florida depends upon how strategic his political team is with his checkbook.
“If he’s putting his money into direct voter contact and ads, it’s helpful,” a Democratic strategist said.
