In the race for the governor’s mansion in blue-trending Virginia, Democrats are poised to repeat their winning tactic from the 2020 Democratic presidential primary: Take no chances, and nominate a well-known name-brand establishment figure rather than a left-wing wild card.
Terry McAuliffe, who is seeking a second term as governor after a one-term break due to Virginia’s state Constitution barring back-to-back terms, is the man to beat in the June 8 Democratic primary. The former Hillary Clinton campaign surrogate outraised and outpolled all of his competitors. He’s also racked up endorsements, including current Gov. Ralph Northam and House of Delegates Speaker Eileen Filler-Corn. Republican gubernatorial nominee Glenn Youngkin has been campaigning as if McAuliffe is the presumptive nominee.
Progressives might be disappointed by the rallying around McAuliffe rather than wider enthusiasm around a candidate more in line with far-left ideological aims. Others worry his nomination will lock out a chance of a potential black or female candidate.
Four other candidates are on the ballot in the June 8 Democratic gubernatorial primary: former state Del. Jennifer Carrol Foy, a black woman; current Lt. Gov. Justin Fairfax, who is black; State Del. Lee Carter, a socialist who defeated the Republican House Majority Whip to win his seat in 2017; and Virginia state Sen. Jennifer McClellan.
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Carroll Foy, who resigned from the state House to focus on her run for governor, is the most prominent of the progressive alternatives. She scored endorsements from several left-wing organizations, including the Sunrise Movement, Virginia Justice Democrats, and the Working Families Party Reps. Katie Porter of California and Lauren Underwood of Illinois.
Feminist journalist and activist Gloria Steinem told Vanity Fair that endorsing Foy, a former public defender and the first back women to attend the Virginia Military Institute, “seemed like a no-brainer. She should be governor — that’s it.” If elected, she would be the first black female governor in the country, as would McClellan.
In the last Democratic primary debate on Tuesday, knives were out for McAuliffe, and Foy and others had one last chance to gain some momentum and win over undecided voters.
“He had his chance and he failed the people of Virginia,” Foy said. “So why does he deserve a second chance?”
At another point, she dinged McAuliffe for flaunting his restoration of voting rights for felons while answering a question about racism. “Not all Black people are felons. We are more than the restoration of rights,” she said. “We need a governor who will treat us in a holistic way to root out the inequities in our healthcare in our economy in our environment, in all of the systems.”
Carter, meanwhile, jabbed at McAuliffe for wanting to increase police funding.
However, McAuliffe’s infrastructure and name recognition are hard to overcome.
As of March 31, McAuliffe had raised nearly $10 million for his campaign, about $1.6 million from his Common Good Virginia leadership PAC. That’s more than all of his opponents combined: Foy was far behind with $3.7 million, while McClellan had raised $1.7 million, Fairfax at $300,000, and Carter at $139,000.
Two April polls from Public Policy Polling and Christopher Newport University found McAuliffe with 43% and 47% support from likely Democratic primary voters, respectively, while all other candidates each had single-digit support.
The winner of the primary will face Youngkin, a first-time candidate who was nominated last month by an “unassembled” party-controlled convention rather than a state-run primary. Youngkin, 54, is the former co-CEO of the Carlyle Group private equity firm and can largely self-fund his campaign.
McAuliffe spent much of the final debate turning attention back onto Youngkin, avoiding mentioning his competitors while painting the former CEO as a “loyalist to Donald Trump.”
Republicans have not won a statewide race in Virginia since 2009. The state’s off-year gubernatorial election will serve as the first major test of the Biden administration and mood of the country. While Democrats are favored to win the race, some analysts think Republicans have a narrow shot to take back the governor’s mansion.
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With that risk in mind, Democrats may be averse to taking chances. That would echo Democratic voters’ behavior in the state 15 months ago, when 53% chose now-President Joe Biden in the presidential primary, compared to 23% for Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and 10% for Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
