‘ANY DAY NOW’: It’s not just the 130,000 troops, the tanks, the missile batteries, the aircraft, and the artillery that surrounds Ukraine on three sides, it’s also the massive logistical support that Russia has moved to the front lines — food, fuel, field hospitals, blood supplies, everything required to support a major military operation — that seems to signal the intent to invade.
“We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead,” said White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Fox News Sunday. “We have reinforced and reassured our allies on the eastern flank, we have united the West, we have provided material support to Ukraine, all at President Biden’s direction, and we’ve also offered Russia a diplomatic path if they choose to take it.”
FIRST US TROOPS ARRIVE IN POLAND TO SUPPORT NATO ALLIES
NEW US INTELLIGENCE: The size of the force arrayed against Ukraine, and the fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to bolster the already formidable force, makes it less and less likely that the buildup is a bluff.
Members of Congress briefed by top Biden administration officials in closed session last week were given dire worst-case scenarios, including the possibility Putin would send his troops into the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv to topple the government of Volodymyr Zelensky.
Such a full-scale invasion could result in as many as 50,000 civilian casualties and force some five million Ukrainians to become refugees.
“These are dangerous times. Time is of the essence. This would be the largest invasion in Europe since World War II,” said Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, ranking Republican on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, on ABC.
McCaul was among the lawmakers briefed on the classified intelligence, which concludes Putin is likely to invade. “The conditions are there. It’s more likely than not. I think the noose is being prepared. It’s around Ukraine right now as we speak.”
HOW A RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE MIGHT GO DOWN
‘MADNESS AND SCAREMONGERING’: Russia continues to insist it has no plans to further invade its neighbor and accuses Washington of conducting a disinformation campaign aimed at stoking tensions
“I read statements on the internet by the U.S. Department of State to the effect that Russia is preparing fake videos allegedly depicting an attack against Donbas by the Ukrainian military,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov speaking at the Beijing Olympics. “The lunacy of such allegations — and there are more and more of them every day — is obvious to any more or less experienced political scientist.”
As for the U.S. assessment that Kyiv could fall in a matter of days, it’s just “madness and scaremongering,” according to Russia’s deputy U.N. Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy. “What if we would say that the U.S. could seize London in a week and cause 300K civilian deaths? All this based on our intelligence sources that we won’t disclose. Would it feel right for Americans and Brits? It’s as wrong for Russians and Ukrainians,” he tweeted Sunday.
PUTIN AND XI DECLARE CHINA-RUSSIA TIES ‘SUPERIOR’ TO NATO’S
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden meets with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the White House this afternoon and will hold a joint press conference with the German leader at 3:15 p.m.
“They will discuss their shared commitment to ongoing diplomacy and joint efforts to deter further Russian aggression against Ukraine,” said the White House.
Germany has refused to send arms to Ukraine, but the U.S. says Germany is still the second-largest donor of other support to Ukraine.
‘ONE WAY OR THE OTHER’: The Biden administration is still seeking a rock-solid commitment from Germany that should Russia invade, it will not permit the newly constructed Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline to open.
Germany gets 40% of its natural gas from Russia, and the pipeline which runs beneath the Black Sea is intended to facilitate deliveries to not just Germany but much of Europe.
“Nord Stream 2 is leverage for us, not leverage for Vladimir Putin,” said Sullivan on Fox. “There is no gas flowing through Nord Stream 2 right now, and there won’t be for months, in part because of the diplomacy of the United States. And we have been absolutely clear that if Russia invades Ukraine, one way or the other, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward.”
On Fox, Wyoming Republican Sen. John Barrasso argued the time to hit Putin with tough sanctions is before he invades. “He does use energy as a weapon,” Barrasso said. “We ought to have biting sanctions in place now, not later.”
“We have a bipartisan piece of legislation that we’ve been working on, and I’ll tell you what is happening now is the administration has been weak-kneed on this, they’ve been dragging their feet, they want Democrats to water it down,” he said. “We need pressing, biting sanctions now — not after an invasion.”
ALSO TODAY: French President Emmanuel Macron meets with Putin in the Kremlin in another last-ditch effort to convince the Russian leader to de-escalate the situation by pulling back some of his forces.
Before heading to Moscow, Macron consulted yesterday with Biden by phone. “The leaders discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, and affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the White House said in a statement.
KABUL ATTACK ‘NOT PREVENTABLE’: On Friday, the U.S. Central Command released its investigation into the devastating Aug. 26 ISIS-K attack on the Hamid Karzai International Airport in Kabul that killed at least 170 Afghan civilians and 13 U.S. troops (11 Marines, 1 soldier, and 1 sailor).
The lone suicide bomber, who had been sprung from prison by the Taliban just days before, managed to get past Taliban security and work his way into the packed crowd at the Abbey Gate and set off his concealed explosive, sending a deadly spray of hundreds of ball bearings through the crowd.
“The disturbing lethality of this device was confirmed by the 58 U.S. service members who were killed and wounded, despite the universal wear of body armor and helmets that did stop ball bearings that impacted them but could not prevent catastrophic injuries to areas not covered,” said U.S. Central Commander Gen. Frank McKenzie at a Pentagon briefing on Friday.
The investigation also revealed that the military’s initial assessment of what happened was wrong in several aspects.
“At the time, the best information we had in the immediate aftermath of the attack indicated that it was a complex attack by both a suicide bomber and ISIS-K gunmen,” said McKenzie. “We now know that the explosively fired ball bearings caused wounds that looked like gunshots, and when combined with a small number of warning shots, that led many to assume that a complex attack had occurred.”
“The fact that this investigation has contradicted our first impression demonstrates to me that the team went into this investigation with an open mind in search of the truth. It also confirms the age-old fact that the battlefield is a confusing and contradictory place, and it gets more confusing the closer you are to the actual action,” McKenzie said.
In the aftermath of the attack, questions were raised about whether U.S. troops should have extended the security perimeter farther away from the airport gates, but investigators concluded that would have only put the U.S. forces at more risk.
Furthermore, given their mission to get as many people out as possible, there was little the U.S. military could do to prevent the attack. “Based on our investigation at the tactical level, this was not preventable,” said Brig. Gen. Lance Curtis. “The leaders on the ground followed the proper measures, and any time there was an imminent threat warning, they followed the proper procedures: they lowered their profile, they sought cover, and at times, they even ceased operations at the gate.”
SINGLE ISIS BOMBER CARRIED OUT DEADLY KABUL AIRPORT ATTACK, PENTAGON SAYS
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: First US troops arrive in Poland to support NATO allies
Washington Examiner: Putin and Xi declare China-Russia ties ‘superior’ to NATO’s
Washington Examiner: China and Russia unveil plan for new world order
Washington Examiner: Single ISIS bomber carried out deadly Kabul airport attack, Pentagon says
Washington Examiner: Pentagon hoped to capture ISIS leader alive
Washington Examiner: How al Qurayshi’s death affects ISIS moving forward
Washington Examiner: Pentagon finds US service members were killed by blast in Afghan airport attack
Washington Examiner: Opinion: A successful Russian invasion of Ukraine means a future of more
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Ukraine, Taiwan, and strategic smarts
Washington Examiner: Opinion: China endorses Russia’s militaristic demands. Will Europe wake up?
New York Times: Huge Casualties Feared If Russia Seizes Ukraine
Washington Post: As U.S. predicts Russia could seize Kyiv in days, Moscow calls assessment ‘scaremongering’
Wall Street Journal: U.S.-Led Air Bridge Steps Up Military Shipments To Ukraine
AP: Explainer: What happens to Europe’s energy if Russia acts?
Reuters: Blinken With Pacific Trip Aims To Reaffirm U.S. Focus On Asia
Reuters: Iran calls removal of U.S. sanctions its “red line” for 2015 deal revival
Air Force Magazine: Fighter Pilot Lawmakers in Congress to ‘Speak on Behalf of Airpower’ With New Caucus
Air Force Magazine: CENTCOM Boss Says There is ‘Rare Opportunity’ to Integrate Air, Missile Defense in Region
Washington Post: U.S. looks to build on security guarantees to UAE after Houthi missile attacks
Washington Post: A popular Uzbek commander fought for the Taliban for more than two decades. He was arrested anyway.
New York Times: A Leader’s Death Deals Another Blow, But A Weakened ISIS Is Still Adapting
AP: US military faces crisis in Hawaii after leak poisons water
CBS 60 Minutes: Military Vehicle Training Accidents, Many Fatal, Reveal Faulty Equipment, Poor Training
San Diego Union-Tribune: ‘I Don’t Think We’re Going To Get Justice.’ Marine Families Anguish Over Hearings Into Fatal Sinking
Navy Times: No hot water, A/C or doors with locks for junior troops forced to live in hellish Walter Reed base barracks
Navy Times: Judge Temporarily Bars Military From Punishing Two Officers Over Vaccine Refusal
38North.org: Understated but Still Important: North Korea’s First IRBM Test Since 2017
Bloomberg: Report Urges Expansion Of Hawaii, Other Test Ranges For Hypersonic Arms
Washington Post: Opinion: Opinion: America led in hypersonic technology. Then other countries sped past.
Calendar
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 7
9 a.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion: “The latest on Russia and Ukraine and how NATO and European allies approach the potential conflict,” with French Ambassador to the United States Philippe Etienne https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
9 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion “Implications of Ukraine crisis for NATO,” with Latvian Defense Minister Artis Pabriks https://www.gmfus.org/event/conversation
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Missile Defense Project webcast rollout of a new report: “Complex Air Defense: Countering the Hypersonic Missile Threat,” with Gillian Bussey, director, Joint Hypersonics Transition Office, Office of the Undersecretary of Defense, Research and Engineering; Kelley Sayler, analyst, advanced technology and global security, Congressional Research Service; Steve Trimble, defense editor, Aviation Week; Mark Lewis, executive director, Emerging Technologies Institute, National Defense Industrial Association; Stan Stafira, chief architect, Missile Defense Agency; Tom Karako, senior fellow, International Security Program and Director, Missile Defense Project, CSIS; Seth Jones, senior vice president and director, International Security Program, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/complex-air-defense-countering-hypersonic-missile-threat
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Righting the Ship: Restoring American Seapower in Tough Times,” with Rep. Elaine Luria, D-Va.; and Bryan Clark, director of the Hudson Center for Defense Concepts and Technology https://www.hudson.org/events/2059-virtual-event-righting-the-ship-restoring-american-seapower-in-tough-times22022
12:30 p.m. — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and the Bologna Institute for Policy Research virtual discussion: “New Challenges to Transatlantic and European Security,” with Antonio Missiroli, former NATO assistant secretary general for emerging security challenges https://jh.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “USSTRATCOM, Modernization of the Nation’s Strategic Nuclear Deterrent,” with Maj. Gen. Ferdinand Stoss, director of plans and policy at U.S. Strategic Command, https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
2 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense Budget Analysis program: “Experts Preview the FY 2023 Defense Budget Request,” with Mackenzie Eaglen, senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute; Stacie Pettyjohn, director, Defense Program, Center for a New American Security; Travis Sharp, fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments; Thomas Spoehr, director, Center for National Defense, The Heritage Foundation; Todd Harrison, director, Defense Budget Analysis and Aerospace Security Project, CSIS; and Seamus Daniels, associate director and associate fellow, Defense Budget Analysis, CSIS https://www.csis.org/events/experts-preview-fy-2023-defense-budget-request
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 8
9 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy., Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “Nuclear Counterterrorism and Counterproliferation,” with Jay Tilden, associate administrator for counterterrorism and counterproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
9:25 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with retired Navy Capt. Mark Rios, senior director for business development, sales, marketing and strategy at ATLAS North America https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc
10:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “The Future of European Energy,” with European Union Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson https://www.csis.org/events/future-european-energy
12 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Arctic in Transition: Energy, Resilience and National Security,” with Michael McEleney, senior adviser at the Energy Department’s Arctic Energy Office; and Terzah Tippin Poe, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/the-arctic-in-transition/
2 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Military Personnel Hearing: “Military Personnel Talent Management Modernization and the Effects of Legacy Policies,” with Army Lt. Gen. Gary Brito, deputy chief of staff, G-1; Vice Adm. John Nowell, chief of naval personnel; Air Force Lt. Gen. Brian Kelly, deputy chief of staff for manpower, personnel, and services; Marine Lt. Gen. David Ottignon, deputy commandant, manpower and reserve affairs; and Patricia Mulcahy, deputy chief of space operations for personnel https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual event: “Lessons from the Ukraine Crisis,” with Rep. Jason Crow, D-Colo; and Ken Weinstein, Hudson senior fellow https://www.eventbrite.com/e/virtual-event-lessons-from-the-ukraine-crisis
2 p.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual conversation on “Army priorities for 2022 and beyond,” with Army Secretary Christine Wormuth; and Stacie Pettyjohn, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Defense Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-fireside-chat
3 p.m. — Washington Post Live discussion about possible sanctions the Senate may impose on Russia and how the Biden administration should respond to any Russian aggression with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Robert Menendez D-N.J.; and Washington Post opinions writer Jonathan Capehart https://menendezfeb2022.splashthat.com/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 9
9 a.m. 2799 Richmond Hwy, Arlington, Va. — Exchange Monitor Nuclear Deterrence Summit: “Perspectives on Defense Department Strategic Nuclear Deterrence: Modernize and Sustain the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent, with Drew Walter, deputy assistant defense secretary for nuclear matters https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference, with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with Deputy Chief of Naval Operations for Fleet Readiness and Logistics Vice Adm. Ricky Williamson https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “Saudi Arabia and Iraq: An evolving relationship,” with Kenneth Pollack, resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute; Katherine Harvey, adjunct professor at Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies; Bruce Riedel, director of the Brookings Intelligence Project; and Ranj Alaaldin, nonresident fellow at the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy https://www.brookings.edu/events/saudi-arabia-and-iraq
10:30 a.m. — National Council on U.S.-Arab Relations virtual discussion: “Iran Nuclear Deal Negotiations: Policy Implications for Success or Failure,” with former U.S. National Intelligence Manager for Iran Norman Roule, senior adviser at United Against a Nuclear Iran; Mohammed Alsulami, founder and president of Rasanah, the International Institute for Iranian Studies; David Des Roches, associate professor at National Defense University; and John Duke Anthony, founding president and CEO of NCUSAR https://www.youtube.com/watch
11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion on the Army’s “campaign to gain a strategic advantage in the cloud and use data in ways that provide warfighters a decisive advantage,” with Dovarius Peoples, Army Corp of Engineers CIO/G6; Angelica “Angel” Phaneuf, chief information security officer at the Army Software Factory; Paul Puckett, director of the Army Enterprise Cloud Management Office; Rob Schadey, business mission area director at the Army Program Executive Office Enterprise Information Systems; and Army Col. Melissa Solsbury, chief data officer at Project Ridgeway and 18th Airborne Corps https://dcevents.afceachapters.org/AFCEADCArmyLuncheon
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Germany’s Worldview and the Crisis in Ukraine,” with Ulrich Speck, visiting senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund; Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Liana Fix, program director for international affairs at Korber-Stiftung; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2065-virtual-event
THURSDAY | FEBRUARY 10
8 a.m. 2520 Wasser Terrace, Herndon, Va. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association Northern Virginia Chapter Space Force IT Day, with the theme “Advancing Space Force Priorities: Delivering New Capabilities and Accelerating Innovation,” with Space Force Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson; Defense CIO John Sherman; Lisa Costa, chief technology and innovation officer at the Space Force; Col. Steve Landry, innovation and digital transformation director at the Space Force; and Michael Torres, enterprise IT chief at the U.S. Space Force https://afceanova.swoogo.com/SpaceForce
9:45 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual Expeditionary Warfare Conference with the theme “Naval Expeditionary Operations in Joint All Domain Warfare,” with Office of Naval Research Chief Rear Adm. Lorin Selby https://www.ndia.org/events/2022/2/8/2022-virtual-ewc
10 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies and the Defense Acquisition Program Administration virtual conference: “U.S.-Korea Defense Cooperation in the Biden Administration,” with South Korean Minister Kang Eun Ho, head of the Defense Acquisition Program Administration https://www.csis.org/events/csis-dapa-conference
11 a.m. — Heritage Foundation virtual discussion: “How the U.S. Army Will Overcome Its Challenges: What Policy and Defense Professionals Need to Know,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville https://www.heritage.org/defense/event
12:30 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace virtual discussion: “Conflict and Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,” with Carla Freeman, senior China expert at USIP; Daniel Markey, senior adviser for South Asia at USIP; Andrew Scobell, fellow on China at USIP; and Vikram Singh, senior adviser at the USIP Asia Center https://www.usip.org/events/conflict-and-cooperation-indo-pacific
1 p.m. — Defense One, Nextgov and Route Fifty virtual discussion: “Cyber Defenders: Securing 2022, with Chris Painter, associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Program; and Nick Marinos, managing director for information technology and cybersecurity at the Government Accountability Office https://events.nextgov.com/cyberdefenders2022/
2 p.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies virtual discussion: “Russia’s Aggression Toward Ukraine: The German View,” with German Minister of State Tobias Lindner https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/russias-aggression-towards-ukraine
2 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual discussion: “Russian Aggression Against Ukraine: The View from Kyiv,” with former Ukrainian Parliament member Svitlana Zalishchuk, adviser to the CEO at Naftogaz; Hanna Hopko, Russian warfare expert and former chair of the Ukrainian Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee; Nolan Peterson, senior editor at Coffee or Die Magazine and former special operations pilot at the Air Force; and Peter Rough, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute https://www.hudson.org/events/2067-virtual-event-russian-aggression
3:30 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual book discussion: “The Twilight Struggle: What the Cold War Teaches Us About Great-Power Rivalry Today,” with author Hal Brands, professor of global affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies https://www.csis.org/events/what-can-cold-war-teach-us-about-us-china-rivalry
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 11
9 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program virtual discussion: “How to Avert an Economic Collapse in Afghanistan,” with former Afghan Finance Minister Khalid Payenda; former Afghan Central Bank Governor Khalil Sediq; Khisrow Fazli, CEO of Ghazanfar Bank; and Julia Friedlander, former senior policy adviser at the Treasury Department https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/hindsight-front
9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion with former Korean Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Kim Sung-han, professor at Korea University https://www.csis.org/events/capital-cable-41-kim-sung-han
12:30 p.m. — New York University’s Brademas Center virtual discussion: “What’s at Stake in Ukraine?” with Volodymyr Ishchenko, research associate at the Free University of Berlin’s Institute of East European Studies; Sophie Lambroschini, associate researcher at the Marc Bloch Center, Berlin; Adam Tooze, professor at Columbia University; Masha Gessen, staff writer at the New Yorker; Zvi Ben-Dor Benite, professor of history at New York University; and Stefanos Geroulanos, professor of European intellectual history at New York University https://nyu.zoom.us/webinar/register
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 15
2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies Aerospace Nation discussion with Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall; and retired Lt. Gen. Dave Deptula, dean of The Mitchell Institute https://mitchellaerospacepower.org/
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 16
All day — A two-day meeting of allied defense ministers at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Belgium https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“The fact that this investigation has contradicted our first impression demonstrates to me that the team went into this investigation with an open mind in search of the truth. It also confirms the age-old fact that the battlefield is a confusing and contradictory place, and it gets more confusing the closer you are to the actual action.”
Marine Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command, on the investigation of the Aug. 26 ISIS-K attack in Kabul that killed 13 U.S. troops and more than 170 Afghans.
