Russia’s planned referendums in occupied Ukrainian territories are a precursor to the annexation of these lands. It is clear that these referendums will be fraudulent and will serve no purpose beyond bestowing a patina of legitimacy to Russian expansionism.
This is not the first time that Russia has organized counterfeit referendums in Ukraine. In 2014, Russian-backed separatists took control of the Donbas and Crimea and promptly organized independence referendums that showed overwhelming support to secede from Ukraine. These results were used to justify Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the establishment of two quasi-independent Russian client states in the Donbas. However, it was immediately clear that these referendums did not actually represent local beliefs.
Fraud and intimidation was thoroughly documented by Pawel Pieniazek, one of the few international war correspondents who was able to report from occupied Donbas during the 2014 referendum. His book, Greetings from Novorossiya, details how pro-Ukrainian residents were threatened with physical violence, causing many to flee the area. Those who remained often felt unsafe voting or boycotted the event because they believed it was a farce. Pieniazek confirmed reports that few measures existed to prevent fraud and stop residents from voting multiple times. Election officials even lied to his face and claimed there was massive voter turnout while he observed pitifully underfilled ballot boxes.
Just prior to the 2014 referendum, Ukraine published a secretly taped phone call of a prominent Russian official advising a separatist leader to tabulate the results as 89% in favor of succession — the exact result that was later achieved. Russia called the recording a fake. Would such fraud be prevalent in these new referendums? Absolutely.
International reporters working in Ukraine have been able to sketch together what life is like under occupation. Violence and intimidation is rampant. Any sign of pro-Ukrainian sentiment is swiftly and brutally punished. British journalist Liz Cookman described to me how, in recently liberated Izium, it is common for local residents to mention that friends and relatives disappeared or were subject to torture, such as having their fingernails pulled out. In June, while in Odesa, I interviewed former Olympic athlete Daria Tykhova, who was evacuated from occupied Kherson and described similar conditions — people and homes were searched for pro-Ukrainian material, and discovery of such material could lead to imprisonment or executions.
Prior to the war, there was a sizable pro-Russian population in eastern and southern Ukraine. Locals I interviewed in Kharkiv and Odesa have estimated this population to be between 20-30%, depending on the region — a significant portion of residents were also simply indifferent to whether they are ruled by Kyiv or Moscow. While the war’s brutalities have changed the minds of many pro-Russian Ukrainians, turning them decisively against Putin, a large pro-Russian minority nonetheless remains. Its votes for independence or annexation would be genuine.
But the presence of an authentically pro-Russian minority does not legitimize a referendum. Even if Russia’s referendums could, by some astonishing magic, be held without fraud, there would be no legitimacy in a vote in which one side is barred from participating under the threat of imprisonment, torture, or death. It should also be noted that the millions of pro-Ukrainian residents, who fled occupation and now live as refugees, will not be able to participate in these referendums, further skewing results.
When sham referendums inevitably show overwhelming support for joining Russia, Putin and his cronies will flaunt this propaganda. They will argue, inevitably, that they are saving beleaguered Russian-speaking Ukrainians and helping them exercise self-determination. They will argue that, post-annexation, Ukraine’s attempts to liberate its lands will amount to an assault on Russian soil. A cause for retaliation, possibly of a nuclear kind.
Perhaps some gullible people outside of Russia will believe these lies — but the majority of us in the West must protect the truth.
Adam Zivo is a Canadian columnist and policy analyst who relocated to Ukraine earlier this year to report on the Russia-Ukraine war. He is writing a book on how the war is experienced by average Ukrainians.
