With just days to go, can allies sway Trump on the Iran deal?

DECISION TIME FOR IRAN DEAL: The deadline for President Trump to make a decision on whether the U.S. will remain in the Iran nuclear deal is fast approaching on Saturday. It’s likely to be a hectic week of lobbying by European backers as well as foes of the deal such as Israel. British Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson flew to Washington on Sunday for two days of talks with Vice President Mike Pence and national security adviser John Bolton aimed at saving the deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. “What has been gained from the nuclear deal? Imagine all the mutually contaminating civil wars and internecine conflicts that rage across the Middle East today. Then turn the dial and add the possibility of a regional nuclear arms race triggered by Iran dashing for a bomb. That is the scenario which the agreement has helped to prevent,” Johnson wrote in an op-ed on Sunday.

Johnson’s visit follows British Prime Minister Theresa May’s call to Trump Saturday, and trips to the White House in the past two weeks by French Prime Minister Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel who are pushing Trump to remain in the nuclear agreement. At the same time, the European allies are rushing to address Trump’s grievances that include a sunset clause and no provisions on Iran’s other malign activities such as ballistic missile development. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ratcheting up his calls to scrap the deal following his unusual TV appearance last week claiming Iran lied about secretly seeking nuclear weapons. The deal must be “either fully fixed or fully nixed,” Netanyahu said Sunday, according to the AP. “But if you do nothing to this deal, if you keep it as is, you will end up with Iran with a nuclear arsenal in a very short time.” Netanyahu is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday to discuss Iran.

IRAN WILL RESIST: Tehran remained defiant today about any moves to modify the deal or rein in its other activities. “If they want to make sure that we are not after a nuclear bomb, we have said repeatedly that we are not and we will not be … but if they want to weaken Iran and limit its influence whether in the region or globally, Iran will fiercely resist,” Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said on state TV. That comes after similar warnings over the weekend that abandoning the deal brokered by the Obama administration would be a “historic mistake.”

WILL HE OR WON’T HE: Publicly, Trump has continued to criticize the Iran nuclear deal, calling it “insane” during Macron’s visit, while giving no indication on what his final decision might be. He decertified the 2015 agreement in October and waived sanctions on Tehran in January in accordance with the deal, but warned that was the last chance for the European signatories to fix it. On Saturday, he faces the next deadline for waiving oil and banking sanctions, and if he does not issue a waiver the agreement could unravel. White House officials have signaled Trump is leaning toward pulling out.

But British Ambassador Kim Darroch said Sunday that London’s White House contacts are all confirming no final decision has been made. “We have been talking at a senior official level with the administration, with our French and German colleagues, for several weeks now. We think we’re making progress. We haven’t got there yet. We have a few days left to see if we can find our way through,” Darroch said on “Face the Nation.” “Plan A is that the U.S. stays in the deal, and that’s what we’re working towards.”

THORNBERRY’S ADVICE: Trump should consider granting the European allies more time,  Rep. Mac Thornberry, the House Armed Services chairman, said Sunday. “Maybe the best thing is for the president to delay a bit more his deadline of this month and put the French and the British up to the test about whether it is possible to get this other sort of agreement,” Thornberry said. A side deal to address Iran’s activities outside of nuclear weapons development is very important, he said. “Is it possible? It’s hard to say until you try.”

But walking away from the deal could raise difficult questions for the U.S., Thornberry said. “The key question is, OK, now we are where we are. What happens next if the U.S. pulls out? Does Iran kick those inspectors out so that we lose what visibility we have there? The Europeans are not going to re-impose sanctions. So where does that leave us and Iran?”

Good Monday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Writer Travis J. Tritten (@travis_tritten) and Senior Editor David Brown (@dave_brown24). Jamie is off this week. Email us here for tips, suggestions, calendar items and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter @dailyondefense.

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NDAA BATTLE BREWING? It’s a big week for the 2019 National Defense Authorization Act on Capitol Hill. Thornberry will release the full language of his version of the NDAA today, and on Wednesday, his House Armed Services Committee holds its marathon debate and amendment session for the massive defense policy bill. Last year’s full committee markup session lasted from morning until around midnight. But the committee could be in for a longer debate this year. Battle lines are already being drawn between the Republican majority and committee Democrats over Thornberry’s plan to slash funding of Pentagon support agencies and activities.

The minority has slammed the chairman’s plan as an “unrealistic and unnecessary sequester-like automatic” cut of 25 percent to Pentagon-wide activities such as logistics, human resources, contracting, and property management by 2021. Thornberry’s proposal will add “substantial red tape” by requiring the Pentagon to review the usefulness of the 28 agencies in the so-called Fourth Estate every five years, Democrats say. What’s more, they say the cuts could have cascading negative effects on military readiness, operational security, troop quality of life and other efforts to prevent waste of taxpayer money. “For example, cuts to the Defense Logistics Agency could negatively impact spare parts and logistics support,” Democrats wrote in their summary of the NDAA bill.

THORNBERRY EASES CUTS: As Democrats dig in for a fight, Thornberry has already rolled back some of his proposed cuts. His Fourth Estate reform plan that was unveiled last month touted about $25 billion in potential cuts. But a senior committee aide now says the estimated dollar amount is unknown and will need to be determined by the Pentagon Chief Management Officer Jay Gibson, who would be charged with carrying out the reforms. “To be perfectly honest with you, the department couldn’t even tell you,” the aide said. Originally, Thornberry also proposed eliminating seven Pentagon support agencies, but now the NDAA is focused on getting rid of just one, the Washington Headquarters Service. “The other agencies, it was felt that giving the CMO the responsibility to go in and justify them was perhaps the better approach,” the aide said.

MATTIS AND DUNFORD TESTIFY: Defense budget hearings are wrapping up as lawmakers shift to the business of writing the 2019 authorizations and appropriations bills. On Wednesday, Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, are set to appear before the Senate Appropriations Committee in what could be their last budget testimony this spring. Both have already given hours of testimony before both the House and Senate armed services committees as well as the House Appropriations Committee. It will be their first appearance before the Senate Appropriations defense subcommittee since Sen. Richard Shelby took the gavel following former chairman Thad Cochran’s retirement last month.

DOD NOMINEES HEARING: More Trump picks for the Pentagon will also be moving this week. Four nominees are set to get their hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday. They are Lisa Porter, to be deputy undersecretary of defense for research and engineering; James Stewart, to be assistant secretary of defense for manpower and reserve affairs; James Anderson, to be assistant secretary of defense for strategy, plans, and capabilities; and Gregory Slavonic, to be assistant secretary of the Navy for manpower and reserve affairs.

HASPEL ON THE HOT SEAT: After weeks of building controversy on Capitol Hill, the Senate Intelligence Committee is set to consider Gina Haspel’s nomination on Wednesday. The hearing is likely to get contentious due to concerns about her past involvement with the CIA’s harsh 9/11-era interrogation program, even though Republicans are optimistic about getting her approved. The Trump administration believes the career CIA agent can make it out of committee and ultimately win the 50 votes needed for confirmation, even though Sen. Rand Paul has said he would vote against her. To get there, Haspel will be on Capitol Hill all week, and plans to meet with at least seven senators, an administration aide told the Washington Examiner.

NOT ANOTHER RONNY? Haspel offered to withdraw her name from consideration for the position late last week, spurring White House officials to stage a last-minute intervention. Haspel told the White House on Friday she was ready to withdraw her nomination to avoid damaging the reputation of the CIA during her confirmation hearing, four senior U.S. officials told the Washington Post. Senior officials such as legislative affairs chief Marc Short and press secretary Sarah Sanders rushed to the agency’s Virginia headquarters to try to persuade her against it. Haspel reportedly claimed she did not want to be “the next Ronny Jackson,” referring to Trump’s pick to be Veterans Affairs secretary.

SECDEF TRAVELS HOME: Mattis spent a quiet weekend in his hometown of Richland on the Columbia River in southern Washington state. He spoke at a local citizen of the year awards ceremony on Thursday and to veterans on Saturday, according to the Pentagon. As part of the public service theme of his trip, Mattis told one of the crowds about a conversation he had with an Iraqi insurgent who once attacked his Marines but then asked about emigrating to the U.S. You can read about it here.

FIXING AVIATION: The Pentagon again denied last week it is in the midst of an aviation crisis following another deadly crash, this time an Air National Guard C-130 cargo aircraft that killed nine Guardsmen. But the House Armed Services’ newly unveiled National Defense Authorization Act is poised to pump billions of dollars into reducing a recent surge in deadly crashes. About $39 billion of the proposed $717 billion NDAA would be spent on readiness and getting more aircraft flying. “Across the bill there is a significant effort to try to look at many of the various causes and devote both the resources and oversight to making sure that the department is focused on those things,” a senior committee aide said during a background briefing on the legislation.

The NDAA attempts to push more resources into training and combat, the aide said. It includes a total of $2.8 billion in spare airplane parts for the Air Force, Navy and Marine Corps. It also calls for a boost of $24 million to get service members more flying hours so they have more experience. “By allowing more time in the air, this increase will help reverse the tragic trend of military aviation accidents,” according to a committee summary of the bill.

NORTH KOREA SUMMIT: There is no word yet whether a White House announcement is coming this week on the date and location of a summit between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Trump said Friday that both details have been nailed down and will be announced soon. The president recently signaled that he favors a meeting in the demilitarized zone between the North and South Korea, but is also considering other location such as Singapore. Trump will meet at the White House on May 22 with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, which could mean any summit will be pushed into June.

NOT ABOUT MAX PRESSURE? North Korea has floated a variety of tantalizing concessions leading up to a summit with Trump, including denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula. But the regime denied over the weekend that the moves are connected to the U.S.-led campaign to impose strict new sanctions on Pyongyang and Trump’s earlier tough talk. The North said such claims put forth by the Trump administration and Republicans on Capitol Hill are “misleading” and are a “dangerous attempt” to ruin potential negotiations, according to NBC.

NORTH’S PR CAMPAIGN: Thornberry said the U.S. pressure has likely convinced the North it needs to run a global public relations campaign. “I have no doubt their hope is to divide us from our allies in South Korea, to ease some of the sanctions, to ease the pressure coming from China so that they are not so isolated in the world,” Thornberry said on “Fox News Sunday.” Pyongyang’s pronouncements and proposed concessions should also be taken with a grain of salt, he said.

The aim could be to play Trump as the two countries head to the historic summit. “I think the history of these negotiations through several administrations shows that they tried to manipulate world opinion for their benefit. And it may also be that they have conducted enough nuclear tests, enough missile tests, that they’re pretty confident with their capabilities,” Thornberry said.   

RUSSIA’S MISSILES: Russia on Saturday announced it has fit 10 of its fighter jets on test combat duty with new air-launched hypersonic missiles that top officials say can dominate any missile defense system. “It is a cutting-edge weapon, namely a hypersonic long-range missile capable of overcoming air and missile defenses,” said Russian Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov, according to TASS, Russia’s state-run media outlet. “It is invincible, having serious combat might and potential,” he said. “The MiG-31 is its carrier as the jet is the most fitted for accelerating this missile to required speeds.” Borisov added the missiles are “ready for use.”

TURKEY’S TALKING TOUGH: Ankara is not happy with a provision in the House Armed Services’ annual defense authorization bill that could block arms sales to Turkey. Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu warned on Sunday that it could retaliate if Congress follows through this year with the proposal to put a hold on sales until the Pentagon submits a report on relations with the NATO ally. “If the United States imposes sanctions on us or takes such a step, Turkey will absolutely retaliate,” Cavusoglu said, according to a Reuters report. “What needs to be done is the U.S. needs to let go of this.” The House proposal follows a Senate bill that aimed to halt any sales of F-35 joint strike fighters to Turkey due to its human rights record and the detention of U.S. citizens.

THE RUNDOWN

Bloomberg: Boeing Says It’s Close to Fixing a Flaw Delaying KC-46 Tanker

Military Times: As fatal aviation crashes reach 6-year high, Pentagon says ‘this is not a crisis’

The Associated Press: North Korea says US ruining mood of detente ahead of summit

Business Insider: The head of the US Coast Guard wants to cut a vital artery in the heart of the global cocaine trade

The Associated Press: China denies using lasers on US aircraft in Djibouti

Washington Post: The Navy is resurrecting a fleet to protect the East Coast and North Atlantic from Russia

Calendar

MONDAY | MAY 7

8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Spring Summitry on the Korean Peninsula: Peace Breaking Out or Last Gasp Diplomacy? csis.org

9:30 a.m. 1501 Lee Hwy. An Air Force Operations Analysis Brief Discussion with Lt. Gen. Jerry Harris, Air Force Deputy Chief of Staff. mitchellaerospacepower.org

1 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Four Years of Sanctions: Assessing the Impact on the Russian Economy and Foreign Policy with Sen. Ben Cardin. csis.org

2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. A Conversation about “The Odyssey of Echo Company: Looking back on Vietnam and the Tet Offensive” with author Doug Stanton. csis.org

2 p.m. 2301 Constitution Ave. NW. War by Other Means: Russian Disinformation Undermining Democracy, Spurring Conflict. usip.org

2 p.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of War and Challenges for Humanitarians with President of the ICRC Peter Maurer. wilsoncenter.org

TUESDAY | MAY 8

8 a.m. 2101 Wilson Blvd. S&ET Division Executive Breakfast. ndia.org

8:45 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Arctic of the Future: Strategic Pursuit or Great Power Miscalculation with Adm. Paul Zukunft, Commandant of the U.S. Coast Guard. csis.org

9 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Challenges of Governance and Security in North Africa and the Sahel. carnegieendowment.org

9 a.m. 529 14th St. NW. Tech Valley and U.S. National Security. press.org

10 a.m. Rayburn 2172. Hearing on Confronting the Iranian Challenge. foreignaffairs.house.gov

10 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Book Discussion of “On Grand Strategy” with author John Lewis Gaddis. brookings.edu

10 a.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. The Rise of China’s Private Security Companies. carnegieendowment.org

11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. The Future of Extremism after the Fall of ISIS. heritage.org

12 noon. Turkey’s Snap Elections: Erdogan’s Gambit (invite only). defenddemocracy.org

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Syria: Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? hudson.org

5:30 p.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd. Rogers Strategic Issues Forum with Lt. Gen. Nadja West, the 44th Army Surgeon General. ausa.org

WEDNESDAY | MAY 9

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Open Hearing: Nomination of Gina Haspel to be the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency. intelligence.senate.gov

10 a.m. Dirksen 192. Hearing to Review the Fiscal Year 2019 Budget Request for the U.S. Department of Defense with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and Gen. Joseph Dunford, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. appropriations.senate.gov

10 a.m. Rayburn 2118. House Armed Services markup of the National Defense Authorization Act. armedservices.house.gov

10:30 a.m. 1127 Connecticut Ave NW. Iran’s Ballistic Buildup: The March Toward Nuclear-Capable Missiles. ncr-iran.org

10:30 a.m. House 140. Fiscal Year 2019 Defense Member Day. appropriations.house.gov

12 noon. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. Trump and the JCPOA: It’s the End of the World As We Know It? hudson.org

12:30 p.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Bridging the Growing Divide Among NPT States with the “Strategic” Elimination of Nuclear Weapons. stimson.org

1:30 p.m. 1740 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Defense and Security in the Baltic Sea with Peter Hultqvist, Swedish Minister for Defense. sais-jhu.edu

2:30 p.m. Dirksen 342. Afghanistan in Review: Oversight of U.S. Spending in Afghanistan. hsgac.senate.gov

THURSDAY | MAY 10

9 a.m. 2345 Crystal Dr. Seminar on Blockchain Technology. ndia.org

9:30 a.m. Hart 216. Confirmation Hearing for Lisa Porter, to be Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering; James Stewart, to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Manpower and Reserve Affairs; James Anderson, to be Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, And Capabilities; Gregory Slavonic, to be Assistant Secretary of the Navy for Manpower and Reserve Affairs; and Charles Verdon, to be Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs, National Nuclear Security Administration.

9:30 a.m. 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW. Dealing in Defense: Examining Trends in Global Arms Sales and World Military Expenditure. stimson.org

12:30 p.m. 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. U.S.-Russia Relations With Michael McFaul and William Burns. carnegieendowment.org

2 p.m. 1201 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Future of U.S. Naval Power: A Conversation with Rep. Rob Wittman. hudson.org

FRIDAY | MAY 11

8 a.m. 300 First St. SE. The MDR: Opportunities and Challenges for Future Missile Defense. mitchellaerospacepower.org

9:45 a.m. 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. Redefining national security: Why and how. brookings.edu

12:45 p.m. 1777 F St. NW. A Conversation With Michael McCaul. cfr.org

MONDAY | MAY 14

12 noon. 1030 15th St. NW. The Fallout from Trump’s Decision on the Iran Deal. atlanticcouncil.org

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QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Is it possible? It’s hard to say until you try.”
Rep. Mac Thornberry, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, on whether President Trump and European allies can settle on fixes to save the Iran nuclear deal.

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