President Joe Biden‘s State of the Union address is Tuesday. Many are already speculating what topics will or won’t be discussed. Notably, activists and people affected by violent crime are expected to be in attendance.
Biden is delivering his speech in front of the new GOP House majority. It’s an opportunity to address a nationwide audience regarding the success of his administration.
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Here are five things the president will (and five things he won’t) say during the State of the Union.
WILL SAY
1. The debt limit
The United States hit the debt limit on Jan. 19, requiring Congress to either raise the debt ceiling or default on the country’s debt for the first time in the nation’s history.
The debt limit has become a hot topic. It will ultimately require negotiations between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and Biden. Democratic and Republican members of Congress are split on how to approach the situation. Several Democrats maintain a “no-negotiation” stance in fear of Republicans using the debt ceiling as a bargaining chip to achieve other goals.
Biden will most likely reiterate his call to Congress to raise the debt limit. He met with McCarthy last Wednesday for their first face-to-face meeting and will probably warn against cutting spending in areas like Social Security and Medicare — something McCarthy said is “off the table.”
2. The economy
The promotion of the economy as strong will likely be a recurring theme for Biden’s State of the Union address.
Biden is likely to tout his administration’s success at creating 517,000 jobs in January and unemployment’s dip to a new ultralow of 3.4%. He announced the numbers Friday, saying it was evidence “the Biden economic plan is working.”
He shirks responsibility for inflation, saying, “It was already here when I got here, man.” Biden will likely attribute inflation to the pandemic.
3. Ukraine
The Russia-Ukraine War is expected to be a big part of Biden’s address. Opinions vary across the aisle on how much the U.S. should be intervening in the conflict with funds and equipment.
Biden will likely echo sentiments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky that the war is a broader global issue in the fight against authoritarianism. Last month, Biden approved the decision to send 31 Abrams M1 tanks to Ukraine. An additional package from the U.S. is expected to be announced around Feb. 24, the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Some Republicans, like Reps. Lauren Boebert (CO), Matt Gaetz (FL), and Marjorie Taylor Greene (GA), have been vocal in their opposition to aid for Ukraine.
“Under Republicans, not another penny will go to Ukraine. Our country comes first,” Greene said at a November rally in Iowa.
4. Police reform
In the wake of the death of Tyre Nichols, the man fatally beaten by five Memphis, Tennessee, officers, Biden is expected to discuss ways to reform the police. In his State of the Union address in 2022, Biden expressed his opposition to defunding the police, but it’s possible his stance on this could flip.
Biden will most likely continue both his and Vice President Kamala Harris’s call for the introduction of legislation for comprehensive police reform, particularly after meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus last week and issuing statements on the need for “meaningful reforms.”
Rep. Shelia Jackson Lee (R-TX) told the Nichols family she plans to reintroduce the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act with a provision titled “Tyre Nichols Duty to Intervene.”
Nichols’s mother, RowVaughn Wells, will attend the State of the Union.
5. Immigration
While it could be a shot in the dark, Biden may call on Congress to come up with a bipartisan immigration plan to combat the growing crisis at the border.
The Biden administration is under consistent scrutiny for the influx at the U.S. southern border as both Republicans and Democrats see their states and districts overflowing with immigrants.
Ahead of the State of the Union, Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-TX) is set to put forward the State Border Security Reimbursement Act. It aims to assist states like Arizona and Texas in recovering from massive expenditures at the border over the past decade, including responding to illegal immigration, drug smuggling, and related matters.
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WON’T SAY
1. Hunter Biden investigations
Biden will most likely not bring up his son Hunter.
House Republicans continue to ramp up their investigations into the president. One such investigation looks to focus on the financial conduct of Hunter Biden, and there is a House Oversight and Accountability Committee hearing scheduled for Wednesday to discuss a New York Post story about Hunter Biden ahead of the 2020 election.
It is unknown if Hunter Biden will be in attendance at the State of the Union. He has not attended any of his father’s previous addresses to Congress. Hunter Biden is facing a federal investigation and may have charges pressed against him. The investigation resulted from information on a laptop.
2. Classified documents discovery
It will be a surprise if the president presents any statements related to classified documents found at his home in Delaware and private office at the Penn Biden Center in Washington, D.C.
The discovery of the documents cast a gray cloud over the Biden administration as it entered 2023. Republicans and Democrats alike have condemned the situation, calling it careless and a potential breach of national security.
The Department of Justice appointed Robert Hur as special counsel for the Biden investigation. The appointment was similar in style to the investigation of documents at former President Donald Trump’s home in Florida.
3. Justice Department investigations into Trump
The president will also likely avoid making any comments regarding the DOJ’s investigation into Trump.
Trump is under the DOJ microscope for a variety of issues — they range from the Jan 6, 2021, insurrection at the Capitol to the classified documents found at his home in Mar-a-Lago in August 2022.
The president has been careful to avoid discussing DOJ investigations, as he is also under investigation. It is likely he will skip over this topic completely.
4. GOP leaders
While the president is addressing a GOP majority and will almost certainly acknowledge McCarthy, he is unlikely to go into too much detail about his adversaries in the Republican Party.
The president may reference a division among leaders in a call for bipartisanship, but a direct hit at GOP leaders and their comments or actions is unlikely.
GOP leaders have been quick to vocalize their displeasure at the way Joe Biden and the Democrats have handled a variety of issues. Republicans started their new majority with investigations into potential wrongdoing that may have occurred during the previous Congress.
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5. Omar, Swalwell, and Schiff committee controversy
The president will likely avoid discussing Republicans’ recent victory at removing Democratic Reps. Ilhan Omar (MN), Adam Schiff (CA), and Eric Swalwell (CA) from their committee assignments.
Omar was removed from the Foreign Affairs Committee, and Swalwell and Schiff were both removed from their positions on the House Intelligence Committee. Their removals drew much criticism from both House Democrats and Republicans.
The president will not likely mention this act of perceived “political revenge.” Democrats removed Greene and Rep. Paul Gosar (R-AZ) last Congress. Most likely, he will instead turn toward discussions about his meeting with McCarthy and parties having respect for one another moving forward in this new Congress.
