After saying repeatedly that he would not retire, Arkansas 1st district Democratic Congressman Marion Berry announced he would not run for reelection. This makes him the second Democratic House member from Arkansas to announce he would retire; 2nd district incumbent Vic Snyder had already done so. Both Snyder and Berry were first elected to the House in 1996, to succeed retiring Democrats—Ray Thornton in the Little Rock-based 2nd district, Blanche Lambert Lincoln in the east Arkansas 1st district. Lincoln was in the process of giving birth to twins; she was elected U.S. senator in 1998 and reelected in 2004.
For Arkansas Democrats, 1996 was an excellent year to run for an open seat: Bill Clinton, running for reelection, won the 1st district 59%-32% and the 2nd district 55%-37%. Clinton also won the south Arkansas 4th district 60%-31% in 1996. That year Republican two-term incumbent Jay Dickey was reelected by a wide margin, but after voting for Clinton’s impeachment Dickey was defeated 51%-49% by Democrat Mike Ross in 2000. Ross has held that seat ever since and is now the only Arkansas Democratic House member who has not announced his retirement.
The political balance in Arkansas this year is very different from what it was in 1996. Arkansas is part of the Jacksonian belt, running from the Applachian chain southwest to Texas. Barack Obama ran weakly here in both the primaries and the general election in 2008: he lost the 1st district 59%-38%, the 2nd district 54%-44% and the 4th district 58%-39%. (He lost in the long-safely Republican 3rd district 64%-33%.) Senator Blanche Lincoln has been running well below 50% in polls and generally behind the little-known Republicans who have lined up to run against her.
What is the prospect for future House Democratic retirements? Filing deadlines have already passed in Illinois and Texas, where primaries will be held February 2 and March 2 (with runoffs in Texas April 13). Arkansas holds its primary on May 18. Other states with primaries in May include Indiana, North Carolina and Ohio on May 4, Nebraska and West Virginia in May 11, Kentucky, Oregon and Pennsylvania on May 18 and Idaho on May 25.
To my knowledge, no House members from these states have announced they will not run again. But perhaps we’ll be looking at some. Pollster Scott Rasmussen reports that Democratic Senator Evan Bayh, elected by wide margins, is trailing Republican Congressman Mike Pence (who hasn’t announced he’ll run for the seat) 47%-44% and is only barely ahead of two lesser-known Republicans who are running. This in a state that Barack Obama carried 50%-49%.
