As Lebanese prime minister Saad Hariri was in Washington to meet with President Obama this morning, Hezbollah and its allies withdrew from the Lebanese cabinet, setting the table for what many fear is an inevitable escalation of violence in the eastern Mediterranean. The Obama administration promises to support Hariri, but at some point the 39-year-old prime minister needs to know what Washington really wants—whether that’s to ensure stability in Lebanon, or to gamble on the possibility of handing Hezbollah a defeat. For Hariri, his life and maybe his country depend on him getting the right answers.

For the last several months, Hezbollah and its pro-Syrian allies have wanted Hariri to disown the findings of the United Nations’ Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL), established to investigate the Feb 14, 2005 murder of Saad’s father, the former-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. Reports and leaks from the STL suggest that Hezbollah members will be indicted for the murder, and Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s leader, has threatened violence in response. With the hope of avoiding confrontation, Saudi Arabia, Hariri’s patron, went into negotiations with Syria, and when they came to naught, Hezbollah went to Plan B, crashing Hariri’s cabinet.