Rep. Madison Cawthorn is favored to win the Republican primary in North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District despite several run-ins with the law and fresh allegations of insider trading.
That is the reluctant assessment of frustrated North Carolina Republicans who oppose Cawthorn and are rooting for the first-term congressman to lose his bid for renomination on May 17. The 26-year-old lawmaker is facing two viable Republican challengers, state Sen. Chuck Edwards and Michele Woodhouse, former GOP chairwoman of western North Carolina’s 11th Congressional District. But Cawthorn’s name recognition, strong support from grassroots conservatives, and divided opposition are conspiring to pull him through.
“He still has a great shot; I have no reason to believe otherwise,” said Larry Shaheen, a Republican operative in North Carolina who has donated to Edwards.
“There are too many people in the primary,” worried a second Republican insider in the Tar Heel State. “I hope I’m wrong.”
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The Washington Examiner reported Tuesday that Cawthorn might have violated federal insider trading laws when, in late December, he publicly promoted an alleged pump-and-dump cryptocurrency scheme. But these allegations are hardly the extent of the congressman’s legal problems and pattern of behavior, which have cast some doubt on his renomination in the deep red 11th Congressional District.
Also on Tuesday, Cawthorn was cited for possession of a 9-millimeter handgun as he attempted to pass through a security checkpoint at Charlotte Douglas International Airport (in February 2021, the congressman was cited for possession of a firearm at Asheville Regional Airport.) Meanwhile, the congressman has been pulled over by law enforcement for multiple traffic violations and has a May 6 court hearing related to being cited for driving with a revoked driver’s license.
Yet, Cawthorn has the upper hand in the GOP primary, with party insiders and local political analysts agreeing he is positioned to finish on top and surpass the 30% threshold required to avoid a runoff. That Cawthorn sought to abandon the newly configured 11th District for a seat anchored in Charlotte, presumably to prepare for a future bid for statewide office, only to return home when the gambit failed has not diminished his chances.
“He’s still the favorite,” said Christopher Cooper, a political science professor at Western Carolina University.
“If I’m a betting man, I would still put money on Cawthorn pulling this out,” added Andy Jackson, a political analyst at the John Locke Foundation, a conservative think tank in Raleigh, the state capital. “But he certainly hasn’t made this easy on himself.”
Cawthorn, who is backed by former President Donald Trump, might be the favorite. But as Jackson suggested and Cooper and the Republican operatives interviewed for this story emphasized, his victory in the May 17 Republican primary is not assured.
The young congressman’s challenges began when he attempted to jump districts in the aftermath of decennial redistricting. The move angered other Republicans in the North Carolina congressional delegation and left a vacuum for his seat, filled by Edwards and Woodhouse, who probably would not have run otherwise. Indeed, Cawthorn recruited Woodhouse to run in his absence. Plus, both Edwards and Woodhouse hail from Henderson County, Cawthorn’s home base in the district.
Many Republican operatives in North Carolina believe Edwards has the best chance of defeating Cawthorn, or at least forcing him into a runoff that would allow GOP factions opposed to the congressman to coalesce behind one candidate. On the eve of early voting, the Edwards campaign is expressing confidence that support for Cawthorn is slipping, with the only lingering doubt revolving around whether enough money can be raised to prosecute the case against him properly.
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“Success is well within reach,” Edwards’s general consultant, Paul Shumaker, wrote last week in a memorandum for the campaign. “All our investors must reinvest in Chuck’s campaign today.”
A spokesman for Cawthorn did not respond to an email requesting comment.
Andrew Kerr contributed to this report.
