With Donald Trump’s defeat in Ohio on March 15, Trump’s opponents now have a plausible path to holding him to fewer than 1,100 delegates in the GOP presidential race—well short of the majority (1,237 delegates) required by the rules to win the Republican nomination.
What would it take to keep Trump under 1,100 delegates? One scenario would involve defeating Trump in key states in the Midwest and the West: Utah on March 22, Wisconsin on April 5, Indiana on May 3, and Nebraska on May 10.
During this time, Trump could rack up wins in several states: Arizona on March 22, New York on April 19, five northeastern states on April 26, and West Virginia on May 10. Trump and Cruz could split delegates proportionally in Oregon on May 17 and Washington on May 24. The nomination would still be up for grabs.
Then the stakes couldn’t be higher on June 7, the last day of the Republican primaries, when almost as many delegates will be awarded on a winner-take-all basis as there were on March 15.
If Trump won New Jersey and New Mexico on June 7, but lost primaries in South Dakota, Montana, and California that same day, he could fall more than 150 delegates short of the nomination.
It’s hard to overstate the importance of California, which has 172 delegates at stake (more than Florida and Ohio combined). California awards almost all of its delegates on a winner-take-all basis by congressional district (3 delegates for each of its 53 congressional districts). If Trump takes all of the delegates in California, he would be within spitting distance of the nomination in this scenario. But mixed results in the Golden State would still leave Trump significantly short of a majority.
What might the GOP presidential race look like in California two and a half months from now? The only good answer right now is: Who knows?
In this race, political prognosticators have been lucky to see more than a day or a week into the future.
Next week’s big questions: Will Cruz be able to hit 50 percent in Utah and capture all of the state’s delegates? Could Cruz pull off an upset in Arizona and deliver a big blow to Trump?
If Trump wins Arizona next week, then the Wisconsin primary on April 5 will be even more important. A win in Wisconsin wouldn’t give Trump the nomination, but it would give him a significant delegate boost and may lead to Trump winning every primary in April. It could be difficult to turn the race around in May. (The concern here is that Trump may gain momentum, but momentum may very well not exist in this race.)
There are still too many important variables in the race to know what’s going to happen next week or next month. Will Cruz and Kasich split the anti-Trump vote for too long? Even if Kasich drops out, would Cruz flop in head-to-head match-ups against Trump now that states with large evangelical populations are done voting? If Trump falls short of a majority, could he make up the difference with unbound delegates if he gets close enough?
The best answer to these questions remains: Who knows?
