On January 8, 2009, Chris Christie, the former United States Attorney for the District of New Jersey, formally filed papers to run for governor. The Republican primary, a three-man contest, was 145 days later, on June 2, 2009. Christie won the GOP nomination and went on to win the New Jersey governorship on November 3, 2009.
Now Christie is pondering a run for the presidency. If he decides to go forward, and if he announces his candidacy on, say, next Monday, October 10, then Christie would have 91 days to campaign before the Iowa caucuses. (That’s assuming the caucuses are held January 9, 2012. In the chaos following Florida’s decision to move its primary to January 31, Iowa has not yet chosen a date, but it most likely would not be any time after January 9, and it could be a week earlier, January 2, in which case Christie would have 84 days to campaign.)
One hundred and forty-five days to campaign for the Republican nomination for governor of New Jersey, and 91 days to campaign for the Republican nomination for president of the United States. In those two numbers are the essential unreality of a Christie presidential candidacy.
Here’s another number: On October 10, Christie will have been governor for 629 days. When Barack Obama announced his presidential candidacy on February 10, 2007, he had been a U.S. senator for 768 days. Yes, Obama — derided by Republicans for his lack of experience — had been a senator longer than Christie has been a governor. And by February 10, 2007 — nearly 11 months before the Iowa caucuses — Obama had been planning to run for president for quite a while. It wasn’t a spur of the moment thing.
Yes, a candidate Christie would have 629 days of executive experience — better preparation for the presidency than an accomplishment-free stint in the Senate. But the fact is that going back generations, only two candidates on Republican national tickets, Sarah Palin and Spiro Agnew, have had as little time in a major office as has Christie. Of course, both were on the bottom half of the ticket, and neither worked out well.
But even if Christie had already served a full term, or two terms, in the governor’s office, he would still face the problem of having just 91 days between announcement and Iowa. And then, after Iowa, would come New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina in rapid succession — four critical contests in no more than 24 days. It’s safe to say that the Republican electorates in those states know very little about Christie now. They’ve known about Mitt Romney for a long time, and even Rick Perry, who declared his candidacy on August 13, will seem like a familiar face compared to Christie. And vetting? It hasn’t been done. To say that Christie will have no room for error is an understatement.
And that’s not taking into account the energy Christie will have to devote to the task of walking back months of definitive statements that he is simply not ready to be president. Last April, he said, “I don’t want it that badly….You’ve got to believe in your heart that you are ready to walk into the Oval Office and to lead the nation. And I don’t feel like I’m ready. So, it makes it very easy for me. I’m 0 for 2. So, you don’t do it.” Christie reaffirmed those feelings as recently as September 22. Not ready for a momentous responsibility on September 22 but ready on October 10? How does that work? And Christie has said the same thing many, many other times. At his Reagan Library speech last week, when Christie cited a Politico video montage of his many I’m-not-running denials, he was showcasing the best argument for why he shouldn’t run.
And even if Christie has somehow gone from not ready to ready in a very short time, there’s still that number: 91 days. It’s possible that the people who are urging Christie to run really believe he could mount an effective race for the Republican nomination in 91 days. Or it’s possible they haven’t really thought through what a run for president would involve. But if he takes their advice and jumps into the race, Christie will be the one stuck with the task of creating a winning presidential campaign out of nothing in almost no time. No wonder he’s hesitating.
