MILWAUKEE, Wis. — Wisconsin’s Republican Senate primary is not until August, but the state party voted at its convention this weekend to endorse state Sen. Leah Vukmir, giving the underfunded candidate a much-needed boost over her opponent, Kevin Nicholson, who has the backing of many prominent conservative lawmakers. The endorsement gives Vukmir access to the state GOP infrastructure, and allies hope it might swing the momentum in her direction.
Vukmir needed more than 60 percent of the votes to win. She got 72.6 percent.
Here at the Wisconsin Center in downtown Milwaukee, Vukmir’s victory was no surprise. She’s spent years working in the grassroots, both as an elected official and an activist, and is a familiar face to party activists. Reince Preibus delivered a rousing endorsement speech on behalf of the mother of two, calling her a “proven, conservative, Christian, principled Republican.” In an unmistakable jab at Nicholson, Preibus was sure to add that Vukmir has been a “lifelong” Republican.
Though Nicholson, a businessman and Marine veteran, has outraised Vukmir, and garnered endorsements from national heavyweights like Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Mike Lee, R-Utah, Vukmir has sought to plant the seeds of doubt when it comes to how he might represent the state in Washington. Nicholson served formerly as the head of the College Democrats of America, a reality he and his surrogates acknowledged head-on at the convention on Saturday. In their endorsement speeches, Nicholson’s wife chronicled his conversion to conservatism, and his uncle argued that his nephew’s path to the GOP was “special.”
The crowd gathered for the convention includes the people at the center of the battle raging between the two candidates. Vukmir, a longtime ally of Gov. Scott Walker, has served multiple terms in both chambers of the state legislature. Nicholson argues she’s an “insider,” but Vukmir contends she’s a grassroots champion. As Wisconsin conservatives are proud to explain, the party establishment is close with the grassroots. But in a state that President Trump managed to swing Republican for the first time since 1984, Nicholson’s outsider brand is potent. Polls of likely primary voters have shown him ahead of Vukmir, and he raked in more than a million dollars last quarter. Vumkir raised around $600,000.
Nevertheless, southeastern Wisconsin’s populous, relatively wealthy, suburban counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington went big for Vukmir, with Ozaukee County’s delegates casting their 24 votes unanimously in her favor. (She won Waukesha County 54-14.) Nicholson appeared to fare better in northern Wisconsin and more rural parts of the state.
There are concerns among some in the party that the primary is headed in a dangerous direction, where the candidates hammer away at each for months, and the winner in August emerges too bruised to beat Tammy Baldwin in November, jeopardizing a strong pickup opportunity for the GOP, and repeating what many see as the mistakes of 2012.
Sen. Ron Johnson was eager to remind the candidates of that possibility on Saturday. “No matter what happens today, as you move forward, understand what this is about. This is about our country. As hard as you’ve worked, as much effort as you’ve put forward, this isn’t about you — this is about America,” Johnson insisted, speaking as he presided over the voting process.
But aside from access to the party infrastructure, the resounding stamp of approval delegates awarded to Vukmir could come with a price if Nicholson’s messaging continues to find traction outside the delegate demo, fueling his attacks on the establishment.
In a press release sent after she secured the endorsement, Vukmir’s campaign manager, Jess Ward, called on Nicholson to drop out of the race. “The heart of our party, our conservative grassroots, sent a deafening message today that it is time to unify behind Leah Vukmir and focus on the task of defeating Tammy Baldwin,” said Ward.“It’s time for Kevin Nicholson to respect the will of the people that have delivered Gov. Walker and Sen. Johnson into office time and time again, and leave the race.”
The question, then, is whether the will of the party is also the will of the people. This is the main question of Republican politics in Wisconsin. If Nicholson, who has the backing of megadonor Richard Uihlein, goes on to win in August, it’ll mean primary voters overrode the state party. In the Trump era, where candidates vie to cast themselves as outsiders, deciding who’s the establishment and who’s the grassroots seems more complicated, even in a state like Wisconsin.
