Peace talks don’t necessarily mean peace.
United States forces in Afghanistan announced early Monday that they have continued to defend Afghan partners from attacks by the Taliban even as Taliban-Afghan government peace negotiations enter their second week.
“Over the past two days USFOR-A has conducted several targeted strikes in Helmand to defend [Afghan National Defense and Security Forces] under attack by Taliban fighters,” U.S. Forces-Afghanistan spokesman Col. Sonny Leggett wrote in a Monday tweet.
Leggett added that the U.S. “has & will” continue to provide support to Afghan partners.
But with President Trump tweeting last week that U.S. forces in Afghanistan “should” be reduced to zero by Christmas, U.S. defense of its partner may be less certain than the Pentagon indicates.
“The Taliban are continuing to seek leverage in the negotiations, and they’re pushing back to see kind of where the limits are, and what kind of pressure they can put [on] them,” said Heritage Foundation security expert Jim Carafano.
“That’s not surprising,” he added.
Violence in Afghanistan has reached a fever pitch since Feb. 29 when peace negotiations were signed between the U.S. and the Taliban, but the Taliban is not in breach of that agreement, Pentagon officials recently said.
The peace deal between the U.S. and the Taliban calls for a stop to attacks by the Taliban against the U.S. and coalition forces — not against Afghan forces.
No member of the U.S. military has died in Afghanistan this year.
“I don’t see a lot of space between the president and the Pentagon,” he said, noting there has been no order that troops withdraw by Christmas, only an expression of the president’s aspiration.
“We’ve never run this by the calendar. We’ve always run it by conditions on the ground,” he added.
When the U.S. arrived in Afghanistan after the September 11 attacks some 19 years ago, the Taliban controlled 70% of Afghanistan. That has flipped. Now Afghan security forces control 70%.
Carafano said retaining that balance is fundamental to the U.S. strategy of preventing another terrorist safe haven.
“That’s an amazing accomplishment. We don’t want to lose that,” he said. “That’s the key to all U.S. interests. It’s key to the stability of the region, which is important to the United States. It’s key to making sure it’s not another terrorist sanctuary like it was before 9/11.”
With troop levels at 5,000 and expected to reach 4,500 by November, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien’s prediction last week of 2,500 soldiers by early 2021 is closer to Pentagon planners than the president’s hope of a total withdrawal.
Carafano said he believes the Taliban knows the president is serious.
“If it unravels, it’s because of the Taliban and the Taliban will pay a heavy price for that,” he said, noting Pakistan will also see its hopes for full normalization of relations with the U.S. dissipate if it does not help assure peace.
“From the U.S. perspective, even as we demonstrate a willingness to negotiate, we have to demonstrate the willingness and the capability to continue to defend our Afghan allies,” Carafano said. “I think this president is committed to that.”
