It’s razor thin, but former President Donald Trump leads Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) in the latest Florida poll for president, a significant boost for the native New Yorker-turned-Florida resident.
The first Emerson College Polling survey of the state, just out Friday morning, has support for Trump in the 2024 primary at 47% to 44% for DeSantis.
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The former president’s lead is within the 4.6 percentage point margin of error in the survey, but symbolically the lead is important.
“While 90% of Republican voters approve of DeSantis, that does not translate into a firewall of support over the former president for the nomination in their home state,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said.
Kimball said the hurdle to DeSantis doing better is his poor standing among independent voters.
“DeSantis has a potential problem with independent voters. Over half, 51%, of independents disapprove of the job DeSantis is doing as Governor. Driving these voters’ disapproval of DeSantis is independent women, 61% of whom disapprove of DeSantis. Also among independent voters 50% disapprove of DeSantis’s handling of education, 43% approve,” Kimball said.
In the Florida GOP primary, no other possible candidate matters.
On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden has most of the support.
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The survey looked at two likely 2024 matchups and found Biden and Trump tied at 44% and DeSantis beating Biden in his home state, 46%-43%.
In the state known for its high percentage of retirees, Biden’s age concerns voters more than Trump’s.
“Age could be a hurdle for President Biden’s reelection effort as a majority of voters in Florida, 56%, and in New Hampshire, 57%, think Biden’s age would present an obstacle to being an effective president. In a Florida presidential general election, voters who find Biden’s age to be an obstacle break for Trump over Biden 66% to 18%, and for DeSantis 73% to 17%,” Kimball said.
