Long road ahead as tensions emerge at climate talks

For the first time, all of the nearly 200 nations involved in the United Nations process will be required to put forth a plan for cutting greenhouse gas emissions that scientists blame for driving global warming. Observers said that was a monumental achievement, as past climate efforts — such as the Kyoto Protocol, which the United States never ratified — excluded big polluters like China and India.

Nations agreed to offer plans for cutting emissions beyond 2020 by the end of March. Countries would then review those plans heading into formal negotiations next year in Paris, where governments will seek to craft a framework for governing emissions in hopes of limiting global temperature rise by 2 degrees Celsius, though scientists believe that goal is in jeopardy.

“As contributions are put forward, peer pressure will grow for countries to be as transparent and ambitious as possible,” said Jennifer Morgan, global director of the World Resources Institute’s climate program.

But nations left Lima without agreeing on many of the most contentious elements of a hopeful final deal. And familiar differences between poor and rich nations also waylaid some of the momentum heading into the talks following a non-binding agreement by the U.S. and China to ratchet down emissions after 2020 that brought the world’s top two polluters into alignment for the first time.

“This text is desperately lacking in ambition, leadership, justice and solidarity for the people worst hit by the climate crisis,” said Jagoda Munic, chairwoman of Friends of the Earth International.

The legal force for whatever system arises wasn’t determined. China and the U.S. are resisting a deal that would create legally binding emissions cuts, in part because the U.S. Senate would never ratify it, and instead opted for a system that relies on peer pressure through consistent meetings and reviews to achieve desired results. But other countries, such as the European Union, want specific cuts to be legally enforceable.

What’s clearer is that nations hope to develop a mechanism to hold others accountable for curbing emissions that relies heavily on that peer pressure. But a key language change to the draft for which China advocated might also weaken efforts to monitor emissions reductions. Instead of saying countries “shall” provide detailed information about their emissions, the text says nations “may” disclose such data.

The split between developing and developed nations was particularly acute on issues of global aid for adjusting to the effects of climate change. Developing nations think post-industrial countries should shoulder more of the financial burden since the latter are responsible for the emissions that put the world on its current trend, even though emerging economies will contribute most of the global emissions going forward.

“Working out how to fairly share the workload of tackling climate change between developed and developing countries has become the major stumbling block on the road to Paris,” said Mohamed Adow, senior climate advisor at Christian Aid.

Developing nations said rich ones should be giving more and expressed doubts that a goal for mobilizing $100 billion of aid annually by 2020 would be realized. For many wealthier countries, domestic politics will make marshaling that kind of funding difficult. For example, Congress blocked $3 billion in commitments President Obama sought for the Green Climate Fund for climate aid in the $1.1 trillion spending bill lawmakers passed last week.

“The US-China announcement hinted at a fundamental shift putting developed and developing countries on a more equal footing.It’s no surprise that in Lima a lot of developing countries pushed back,” said Elliot Diringer, executive vice president of the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions. “Striking a new balance between developed and developing nations will clearly be one of the toughest pieces next year in Paris.”