President Trump has stopped beating up on Republicans in Congress ahead of critical midterm elections, among the few instances in which the unconventional populist has embraced the role of traditional party leader.
Trump’s benevolence has extended to Republicans who have opposed elements of his agenda, delivering crucial endorsements that protected them from primary challengers running as “MAGA” loyalists. The unexpected detente, after Trump spent most of 2017 publicly undercutting House and Senate Republicans, could be a pivotal development in the party’s fight to preserve its power in November.
“A civil war that constantly torched congressional Republicans with the Trump brand on it would have been debilitating,” said Brad Todd, co-author of the book The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics, and a GOP consultant. “His decision to turn off the blowtorch and unify the party makes midterm success possible. Not sure it would have been possible without it.”
This week, Trump endorsed Rep. Dan Donovan, R-N.Y., running in a competitive June 26 primary in New York’s 11th Congressional District against former Rep. Michael Grimm. Donovan opposed Trump’s marquee accomplishment, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act; Grimm is campaigning on unwavering fealty to the president. But the incumbent still secured Trump’s hearty backing in a two-part tweet.
The move comes some months after Trump pledged to support all incumbent Senate Republicans. He rebuffed populist allies encouraging him to clean house and back challengers willing to buck the GOP establishment. Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada, a thorn in Trump’s side during the Obamacare repeal debacle, benefited. The president pushed his would-be Republican challenger out of the Senate primary.
As the infighting has subsided, the Republicans’ political stock has improved, although Democrats are still poised to gain House seats.
The generic ballot gauging voter preferences for control of Congress favors the Democrats. But their advantage in surveys had plummeted to an average of 3.7 percentage points, the lowest since Trump took office. The margin falls short of what Democrats need to win the House, and isn’t large enough to stem losses in the Senate that could leave them deeper in the minority next year.
This trajectory coincided with Trump avoiding vicious fights with congressional Republicans that played out over social media platforms last year, and party insiders see a direct correlation. Passage of the $1.3 trillion tax overhaul, about the time the whippings ceases, is believed to have influenced Trump’s newfound appreciation for House and Senate Republicans.
“The president understands that not just his future ability to execute his agenda, but his current ability to operate, relies in some part on the support of the Congress and his own party in particular,” said a Republican operative and former leadership aide on Capitol Hill. “I think that was a process. I think tax reform helped an awful lot.”
Trump in his 2016 campaign was suspicious of the Republican establishment. He resisted the advice of seasoned party officials and derided any form of intervention as an attempt to unfairly rig the outcome. But as president, Trump has discovered the value of meddling, primarily after a flawed nominee cost the GOP a Senate seat in Alabama.
“Remember Alabama” has been a Trump rallying cry as he’s picked sides in GOP primaries. He raised it again in endorsing Donovan over Grimm, a convicted felon who spent time in prison for tax fraud and could jeopardize the Republicans’ hold on the Staten Island seat if he ousts the incumbent in the primary.
But Trump’s shift away from instigating intraparty skirmishes wasn’t simply self-taught through experience, but the result of discussions over time with Republicans in Congress who worked hard to impress upon the president that his political fortunes were tied to theirs — and vice versa.
Trump and Donovan discussed an endorsement last week when the president was in New York to headline a fundraiser. Months earlier, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and top GOP leaders in the House, particularly Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., impressed upon Trump how important he was to their midterm efforts.
At a January meeting at Camp David, the presidential retreat, Republicans emphasized to Trump the potential for a midterm wipeout at the hands of the Democrats.
“Their fates were intertwined and they need to work together,” has been the underlying message of all of these pep talks. Republicans think Trump bought in, after a steep learning curve that might have been expected for a political outsider who had never before run for or held elected office.
But one veteran party operative close to Trump cautioned against Republicans getting too comfortable or taking this kumbaya moment for granted.
“I don’t think any of this means he won’t fight with his own party. If anyone takes a shot at Trump, believe me, the return serve will be 10 times harder,” this Republican insider said. “We might be seeing a lull in intraparty disputes but that doesn’t mean the president isn’t willing to take the gloves off and punch his own people in the nose.”
