There hasn’t been a better time for Ukraine to take the offensive and push Russian troops out of the country, including Crimea and the Donbas region. It’s time to reestablish their territorial integrity and declare their sovereignty again.
Russian losses, lack of food and supplies, and cold weather are having a significant effect on troop morale. The Ukrainian strike, overnight from Thursday to Friday, against a fuel depot inside Russia is further evidence that Ukraine has seized the initiative.
On March 23, NATO estimated that between 7,000 and 15,000 Russian soldiers were killed in action and upward of 40,000 Russian troops were killed in action, wounded in action, taken prisoner, or missing in action. Russian generals are getting killed trying to motivate their soldiers from the front. Other general officers are being relieved, some placed under house arrest for their failures. One report suggested a Russian colonel from the 37th Separate Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade was run over by mutinous forces.
Russian military forces in Ukraine are vulnerable. The Ukrainian military has proven itself capable — its operational reach and ability to project force beyond its defensive positions have expanded. On March 25, it sunk the Russian landing ship Saratov in the southern port of Berdiansk. It launched counterattacks against Russian ground forces to recapture the Kyiv suburb of Irpin. According to Ukrainian defense officials, the military defeated the Russian 4th Guards Tank Division during the battle of Trostyanets in Sumy, some 220 miles from Kyiv and just 15 miles from the Russian border. It’s time to outfit the Ukrainians with more offensive weapon systems and allow them to better take the fight to the Russians.
Defensive weapons have emboldened the Ukrainian military, making them a formidable adversary, but they are ineffective against the artillery, ballistic missiles, and aerial bombardments that continue to decimate their country. They prolong the war and force the Ukrainian military to react to Russian activity. President Joe Biden’s comment to “continue to provide the Ukrainian military with the capacity to defend themselves” doesn’t stop the artillery from raining down on Kyiv — neither do sanctions.
The Russian announcement that it would be withdrawing forces from Kyiv and Chernihiv to refocus on the eastern Donbas region is nothing more than an effort to buy time to re-position forces, rearm and refit, build combat power, and attack again in Kyiv or other regions of the country. The Ukrainian military should be in pursuit, inflicting more casualties and maintaining contact all the way back to the border.
Let’s help them do it.
Col. Jon Sweet (USA, RET) served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), DIA, NSA, and NGA. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012 to 2014, working directly with NATO partners in the Black Sea and the Baltics.
