Rep. Thomas Massie found himself at the center of a rare moment of bipartisan unity when his attempt to force a recorded vote on the coronavirus emergency spending package caused everyone from President Trump to John Kerry and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to pile on the Kentucky Republican. The House quelled Massie’s insurrection quickly. Still, it was a warning shot to Trump about what could be next if the pandemic brings down his job approval ratings.
In less than four years, Trump has brought the Freedom Caucus, a group of strict House conservatives who have been a scourge to Republican leadership, to heel. His last White House chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, and his current one, Mark Meadows, were founding members. Their rank and file was well represented among the 40 Republicans who voted no on the $2 trillion bill. Still, only the outsider Massie, who described the legislation to the Washington Examiner as the “largest transfer of wealth in human history,” made much trouble.
After Trump signed the economic rescue bill into law, he announced he was keeping in place the social distancing guidelines intended to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Polls show the public is profoundly supportive of both the spending and preserving the restrictions that are keeping businesses shuttered in the first place. But portions of the conservative base are impatient with both.
“If you are going to keep the economy shut down until August like [Treasury Secretary Steven] Mnuchin said, you are going to have a damn depression,” FreedomWorks President Adam Brandon said. “How in the hell are you going to get healthcare then?” Brandon’s concerns are not without merit. More than 10 million people filed for unemployment benefits in March, with 6.6 million filing in the final week of the month.
“Thomas Massie is a rare voice of sanity in Washington, D.C.,” said Young Americans for Liberty President Cliff Maloney. “When future generations look back and wonder why no one questioned the largest transfer of wealth from low/middle-class Americans to rich corporations and special interests, they will see that one man, Thomas Massie, stood firm and objected.”
After a spate of public opinion surveys showed Trump gaining in coronavirus management approval ratings even among Democrats and independents, a Morning Consult tracking poll late last month showed him losing 8 points among Republicans on this question in just a week.
If Trump starts to lose support from the broader electorate, which wants government action on the coronavirus, there is a risk these conservatives could become more outspoken. That’s what happened to President George W. Bush. His poll numbers, already weak because of Iraq, were depressed by an ineffectual federal response to Hurricane Katrina and then tanked completely during the financial crisis. Conservatives in the Republican Study Committee, a Freedom Caucus precursor, began to insist on offsetting Katrina relief spending with budget cuts elsewhere and ultimately led the GOP conference in a rebellion against the 2008 bank bailout. Other voters wanted a more prominent Washington role in both, and conservatives abandoned ship last — but abandon it they eventually did.
Trump’s ability to enforce party discipline stems from his more than 90% approval rating among Republicans. Even Massie was careful not to criticize the president on the rescue package. “For Nancy Pelosi and [House Minority Leader] Kevin McCarthy, this was all about avoiding accountability,” he said. Unlike Bush, Trump is in the middle of a reelection bid. But time is of the essence on the coronavirus, which is why the president tweeted that Massie should be tossed out of the party.
“Trump’s handling of the coronavirus is literally the only thing that matters for his reelection,” said Republican strategist Scott Jennings. Even against lackluster Democratic opposition, another GOP insider close to the White House acknowledged the perception that the outbreak was managed poorly would likely make Trump “a one-term president.” If that starts to look likely, Trump tweets could lose their power.
The president appears to recognize the challenge. He has downplayed the pandemic’s severity less and extended olive branches to Democrats and even cable news reporters. “We’re unleashing every tool in our nation’s vast arsenal — economic, medical,” Trump said at a Rose Garden briefing last month. “If you look, medical, and scientific, military.” He’ll need to.
W. James Antle III is the Washington Examiner‘s politics editor.
