In only ten days the voters will have spoken and Donald Trump will be planning his move to Washington—to the new Trump International hotel, in which he says he will be spending lots of time. The hotel is spitting distance from the White House where the Obamas are making certain everything will be in order when the Clintons return. That would be in sharp contrast to the condition in which the departing Clinton team left 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue when its last tenancy ended. George W. Bush and family found graffiti accusing Bush of having stolen the election, computers with the “W” removed, and assorted “damage, theft, vandalism and pranks” according to the General Accounting Office. And discovered that almost $200,000 of furniture (china, a sofa, rugs, flatware) had been, er, mistakenly taken by the Clintons, who in response to having that error pointed out later sent a check for $86,000 and returned stuff valued at $28,000.
Trump is sounding out possible investors to join him in establishing some sort of media enterprise, perhaps Trump TV to capitalize on his ability to attract large audiences and, for existing networks, large profits, which Trump feels were rightfully his. But more important than the future of Donald Trump is the future of Trumpism. To many this is a virulent version of populism, a “movement”, to use Trump’s term, that is anti-immigrant, racist, misogynist, a home for those unable to adjust to a globalized economy. And therefore a threat to the future of the Republican party, in which it has made its home, and to the civility of American politics.
Never mind that legitimate questions can be raised about the accuracy of these charges: A worker who is seething at a political class that has done nothing while his job disappeared overseas, and permitted a wave of illegal immigrants to enter the country and put downward pressure on his wages, as scholars now have documented, need not be a racist to oppose open borders. And never mind that the “lost” civility of American political discourse exists mainly in the minds of those unfamiliar with the history of American presidential campaigns.
There is general agreement, even among those appalled by Trump’s style and character, that at least some of the grievances of his followers require the attention of a political class until now unaware of or insensitive to the needs of these forgotten Americans. As it does, it will be benefitting from several recent developments that just might act to cool the anger of Trump’s millions of supporters.
For one thing, the mostly lower-paid Trump supporters are seeing their fortunes improve. The unemployment rate that soared to 10 percent during the Great Recession, has fallen in half, to about its pre-recession level of 5 percent. The number of white persons in poverty, presumed to be an important Trump constituency, declined by almost 3 million in the last reporting year. Increases in statutory minimum wages, their effect on employment aside, have been raising take-home pay of the lower paid. If these trends continue, and early reports on third quarter GDP and projections for holiday sales and hiring suggest they will, the discontented, if not joyous, may be less angry.
A Clinton administration will also provide some balm for those angry at the widening gap between rich and poor. President Clinton should be able to persuade even a Republican-controlled congress to go along with higher taxes on the wealthy. Forget whether that is as efficient or even as effective a way to reduce inequality as more rapid growth: Those who want to hear the sound of tumbrils rolling over the cobblestones of Georgetown and similar upper-income neighborhoods, will have the impression that government, which they feel has been their enemy, has become a bit more responsive to their complaints.
Then there are the debt-burdened students. The fact that for many the IOUs that now trouble them were incurred to pay for educations that will increase their earning power by some multiple of their expenditure does not stop them from moaning about their debts. Clinton will have taxpayers, some poorer than the students will be, ease the debt burden on these students, the un-needy as well as the needy. She will tie that relief to students’ willingness to opt for public sector employment, or as her critics would have it, a career as government bureaucrats rather than private-sector wealth-creators. This group’s whining will not cease, but the decibel level will likely decline.
The Trumpkins, who believe that their plight—low-paid or no work—is due to the arrival of masses of immigrants and poorly negotiated trade agreements, might find future developments less threatening. The possibility that another massive trade deal will be negotiated any time soon to fuel this anger is remote indeed. Hillary Clinton, no stranger to exercising more economy with the truth than with taxpayers’ money, would have to twist the language beyond recognition to find words to justify supporting the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement with eleven Pacific rim countries. Even if President Clinton were to forget the promises of candidate Clinton, and conjure up some excuse to flip-flop once again on TPP, she is unlikely to persuade the senate, with 33 of its 100 members up for re-election in 2018, to support her. Even if pro-TPP Joe Biden, rumored to be our next Secretary of State, deploys all of his charm on former senate colleagues, most will prefer continued employment and all the perks of the senate, to pleasing a former colleague
Finally, Trump’s supporters might be growing a bit less fearful that they will lose their homes, or be unable to sell them if they want to move to areas with better job prospects. The value of the one-third of all homes that Zillow, the property database company classifies as “bottom-tier,” has risen by 7.6 percent in the past year. That has reduced the portion with mortgages in excess of their value—”negative equity” or “below water” to use industry jargon—from 25.5 percent to 21.8 percent, with the downtrend expected to continue. That will enable more owners of these homes to put them on the market, and have the added advantage of increasing the supply of homes available to first-time buyers.
None of this is to say that Trump supporters will suddenly become happy campers. Or that their anger will not be stoked when taxpayer-funded subsidies prove insufficient to offset the entire impact of the soaring health insurance premiums caused by Obamacare. But it is possible that economic and political developments will cool the political climate here in America.
Of course, if…
