Impeachment is a virtual lock. His approval ratings are stuck in the mid-40s. And 2016 popular vote winner Hillary Rodham Clinton is toying with a repeat run for president.
So why is President Trump and the Trump-Pence campaign feeling confident of a 2020 reelection?
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Because, according to pollsters, insiders, and election experts, Trump is expanding his base of Republican and conservative supporters to include more independents and minorities and attracting voters who are angry at Washington but who skipped the 2016 election.
“Everybody is doing incredibly well. The poll numbers are looking great, and the economy is doing wonderfully, and we’re executing our agenda successfully to bring the change that people voted for, and we are supremely confident,” said senior White House policy adviser Stephen Miller.
At a time when the conventional wisdom in Washington, especially among Democrats, is that Trump is headed toward an easy and well-earned defeat in 2020, a collection of polls and contrarian views from critics who took Trump seriously early in the 2016 election suggest that he is in a good position.
Zogby Analytics pollster Jonathan Zogby told us that Trump is making solid inroads with new voters who feel good about the economy, including those in urban areas and the poor, traditionally part of the Democratic base.
“An interesting area where Trump has caught steam is among economically vulnerable groups. We categorize these groups as: lost a job, at a job that pays less, afraid of losing a job, and gone without food for 24 hours,” said Zogby.
What’s more, his polling has found weak enthusiasm for the 2020 Democratic candidates, and that could open the door for Trump to woo minorities.
“Trump could skim support of young, Hispanic, and women voters in addition to new groups he has appealed to,” said Zogby.
The latest essential reading piece from Tom Edsall opens like this:
“President Trump is unpopular, but that doesn’t mean defeating him is going to be easy.”https://t.co/J5kaUQ9J4T
— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) November 1, 2019
In the just-released book How to Beat Trump by political journalist Mark Halperin, who took Trump seriously when few did in 2016, Democratic consultant Pete Giangreco said that there is a “sleeper cell” of angry voters who didn’t show up at the polls last time that the president is poised to add.
“I think Trump can run up the score in rural areas even bigger than he did,” he told Halperin, who is making a return to journalism after apologizing for sexual misconduct when he worked at ABC News in the 2000s.
And impeachment could backfire, said Trump-Pence campaign pollster John McLaughlin.
“I’m convinced this phony whistleblower political impeachment came about precisely as a desperate voice by the Pelosi Democrats to stop the president’s 2020 reelection,” he said. “We were expanding our solid Republican and conservative base to a net popular position among independents and moderates. Then [House Speaker Nancy] Pelosi and [Rep. Adam] Schiff launched the whistleblower investigation.”
But in his polling, a majority think it’s a political stunt and more than not want him to “continue to fight to change Washington.”
And the campaign has seen growth in support from blacks and Hispanics above the support Trump received from them in 2016.
“President Trump’s campaign continues to see our base of support more energized than ever and increasing in numbers, especially from new voters, African Americans, and Latinos,” said campaign spokesman Daniel C. Bucheli.
Zogby said that the confidence exuded by Team Trump could be warranted.
“There are many variables here that need to take place for another Trump victory, like any ingredients to a great recipe, but it’s not impossible for Trump and his handlers to bake the perfect cake and win in 2020,” he said.
