What are the chances that the next president will die in office? Based on what the nominee’s opponents have been saying, the odds seem fairly high. Donald Trump has spent recent weeks claiming that Hillary Clinton doesn’t have the “mental and physical stamina” necessary to fulfill the role of president. Clinton and her surrogates, meanwhile, responded by calling on Trump to release his health records and then, when he did, attacked the doctor who vouched for Trump’s health as a quack.
Both have been somewhat secretive and selective with the information they are providing with the public. In August, the New York Times interviewed doctors and medical experts and found that “they had rarely seen so few details or updated information about the health of presidential nominees.”
But though Trump (70) and Clinton (68) would be the oldest and second-oldest presidents at election in history, statistically, there’s a good chance both will live to see their 80s and beyond.
As most people know, life expectancy in the U.S. has shot up over the last century. In 1930 it was just 60 years. Fifty years later, in 1980, when voters elected 69-year-old Ronald Reagan president, it had reached 73.7.
Life expectancy rose another five years between 1980 and 2014, when it was 78.8: 76.4 for men and 81.2 for women, according to the Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
Based just on these numbers (which of course are averages) this means that Trump could reasonably expect to live long enough to begin a second term. But these numbers estimate life expectancy at birth. According to Social Security actuarial tables, if an American man makes it to 70 years old, he can expect to live past his 84th birthday. A 70-year-old American woman can expect to live another 16.4 years, on average.
And there’s another important variable. Hillary’s claims of poverty notwithstanding, both she and Donald have been rich for much of their adult lives. And not surprisingly, research shows that wealth improves one’s chances of living longer.
One recent study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) found that life expectancy for the richest people in America — a group Trump proudly claims to be part of, though Hillary much less so — is 87.3 years for men (measured at age 40) and 88.9 years for women.
The disparity in longevity between rich and poor men is large and getting larger, according to the study. “The richest American men live 15 years longer than the poorest men, while the richest American women live 10 years longer than the poorest women. The poorest men in the U.S. have life expectancies comparable to men in Sudan and Pakistan; the richest men in the U.S. live longer than the average man in any country.”
The study also found that the wealth gap between rich and poor has increased significantly over just the last 15 years. “Inequality in life expectancy has increased in recent years at the national level. Between 2001 and 2014, individuals in the top 5% of income distribution gained around 3 years of life expectancy. In contrast, the lifespans of Americans in the bottom 5% of the income distribution did not increase between to 2001 and 2014.”
We know that money can’t buy love, but it will buy longer life — on average and all else equal, of course.
Actuarial tables and wealth are not guarantees of health or longevity. And of course, none of this takes into account current health, family history or overall lifestyle, among other important variables.
That said, if statistics are any guide, both Hillary and Donald will be around for a while, for better or worse.
Daniel Allott is deputy commentary editor for the Washington Examiner
