Republicans endorsed by Donald Trump won key primaries in Arizona and elsewhere Tuesday, providing the former president fresh reinforcements in the midterm elections and reversing a string of losses in nominating contests earlier this year.
Trump sympathizers will point to the former president’s overall record in Republican primaries in the 2022 election cycle, arguing his Midas touch never waned. But some primaries count more than others, and Trump has proven vulnerable, seeing his endorsed candidates struggle or lose big nominating contests this year in Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Nebraska, Pennsylvania … You get the picture. But Tuesday in Arizona, a crucial swing state in presidential elections, Trump came up big, reminding Democratic and Republican critics alike he is still the GOP’s most influential figure.
Senate candidate Blake Masters, the venture capitalist and populist protege of GOP megadonor Peter Thiel, won his primary. Gubernatorial contender Kari Lake, the former local television news anchor who parrots Trump’s unsubstantiated stolen election claims every chance she gets, was leading narrowly in hers. Another 2020 election skeptic, Mark Finchem, won the GOP nomination for secretary of state, while Rusty Bowers, the Republican state legislator who told the House Jan. 6 select committee Trump pressured him to overturn now-President Joe Biden’s win in Arizona, was ousted in his primary.
This ticket of Trump Republicans, if they survive what is sure to be strong Democratic opposition on Nov. 8, could provide the former president a bulwark of support in 2024 should he again fall short in Arizona — and again demand the results be thrown out.
“Endorsements don’t get any more powerful or conclusive than the endorsements of last night. I wonder if anyone will report that. Just Asking,” Trump bragged on Truth Social, the Twitter-like social media platform he founded after leaving the White House, adding, in a second post: “Ran the entire board.”
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That was certainly true in Michigan, where Trump propelled Tudor Dixon to the Republican gubernatorial nomination over a crowded field and boosted John Gibbs over Rep. Peter Meijer in the Grand Rapids-area 3rd Congressional District GOP primary. Trump took pleasure in pushing out Meijer, who voted to impeach the 45th president for his culpability in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots, although the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee deserves much of the credit (more on that in a moment).
Meanwhile, in Missouri, Trump avoided an embarrassing primary loss when he resisted the urge to endorse disgraced former Gov. Eric Greitens for Senate fully. The former president announced late Monday he would be fine with “Eric,” meaning Greitens or state Attorney General Eric Schmitt. Schmitt won easily, garnering 45.7% of the vote. Greitens finished a disappointing third with 18.9%, behind Rep. Vicky Hartzler, who received 22.1%.
However.
Politics is often less linear, and voters often more complicated, than either Trump or his critics prefer to acknowledge.
So, while the former president and his determination to dominate the Republican Party was plainly successful in Tuesday’s closely watched primaries, neither he nor his acolytes “ran the entire board,” to borrow the phrase.
In Washington state’s top-two, all-party nominating contests, Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) and Rep. Dan Newhouse (R) appeared on track to advance to the general election over Trump-endorsed challengers. Both Herrera Beutler and Newhouse voted to impeach Trump for his actions on Jan. 6, as supporters ransacked the Capitol and he did little to stop it in real time. And, in Kansas, the incumbent Republican secretary of state, Scott Schwab, won renomination over a challenger who, while not backed by Trump, used the former president’s unsupported complaints about election fraud and criminality as the basis for his campaign.
Then there’s the little matter of candidate quality and whether Trump’s slate, in Arizona and Michigan, put the Republican Party in a better position to take advantage of the red electoral wave building across the country as Biden’s job approval ratings crater. The short answer is: not exactly.
The good news for Trump and his party is that Dixon was the consensus pick of the Trump wing and the so-called establishment wing of the GOP in Michigan and appears to be the best the party could have done versus Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D). But Gibbs winning the Republican nomination in Michigan’s 3rd Congressional District immediately puts the party at a disadvantage versus the Democrats, which explains why the DCCC spent $1 million to meddle in the primary and defeat Meijer.
With Meijer, Republicans would have been favored to retain this seat. With Gibbs, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report immediately changed its race rating for this district from “toss-up” to “lean” Democratic.
“Reality Check,” tweeted nonpartisan House handicapper Dave Wasserman, who oversees race ratings for Cook. “Gibbs starts with a huge cash deficit to [Democratic nominee] Hilary Scholten and could have a tough time unifying the GOP considering Rep. Peter Meijer is on track for 46% in the primary and those are far from automatic Gibbs votes in November. Plus, the new #MI03 is Biden +8.”
In Arizona, a top-of-the-ticket led by Lake and Masters could also run into trouble. Even with the Grand Canyon State’s status as a bona fide swing state, and with the political pendulum swinging toward the GOP, any Republicans not named Trump, or not affiliated with Trump, or not enamored with Trump, are equally pessimistic about Lake’s prospects versus Democratic nominee Katie Hobbs and Masters’s chances against Sen. Mark Kelly (D). If their dire predictions pan out, Trump, in theory, could have a lot to answer for heading into a presumed 2024 presidential bid.
Then again, some Republicans are quite optimistic. Masters, said Sen. Rick Scott (FL), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, is a “great candidate who’s well-positioned to beat Mark Kelly.” Added a GOP operative involved in gubernatorial races: “Lake is going to be the next governor. Hobbs is a train wreck of a candidate.”
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Finally: Kansas. There was an unexpected development there Tuesday in the new front of the abortion wars unfolding in the states in the aftermath of the Supreme Court ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization that overturned Roe v. Wade.
Kansas is solid-red territory, with Republicans, who tend to oppose unlimited abortion rights, predominating. Nonetheless, Kansas voters there overwhelmingly opposed removing abortion rights protections from their state’s constitution, defeating a ballot initiative that would have done so. The “no” vote to maintain abortion rights in Kansas was leading 59% to 41%, with 95% of precincts reporting.
These results might not portend much for midterm elections this year but bear consideration when forming prognostications about the presidential election cycle that immediately follows.
