Historically, generic ballot polls have undercounted Republican support in congressional elections. And so at the moment, with what seems like widespread unhappiness with the Trump administration and the status quo, it was a bit surprising the other day to see that the Politico/Morning Consult poll had the two parties tied — 40 to 40 percent — for partisan preference ahead of the 2018 midterm election.

Today, a slightly less surprising result, although still one that’s better for the GOP than I would have expected: A four-point percent Democratic lead among registered voters in the new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll: