Republicans would be wise to pay close attention to, rather than dismiss, the subtext of a weekend New York Times story about their uncertain reaction to last month’s devastating midterm election losses.
“Nearly a month after the election,” wrote reporter Jonathan Martin, “there has been little self-examination among Republicans about why a midterm that had seemed at least competitive became a rout.”
Republicans lost an astonishing 40 seats. And yes, despite the excuse-makers, those losses were not ordinary, but disastrous. Only twice since the1952 election of Dwight Eisenhower has a party with a House majority lost more net seats than that while also losing that majority.
Yet as Martin reports, “The Republican response, or lack thereof, to the midterm backlash stands in stark contrast to the shake-ups and soul-searching that followed its loss of Congress in 2006 and consecutive presidential defeats in 2012.”
Much of the conservative media is encouraging the complacency. Conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt repeatedly predicted before the elections that Republicans would do well in the elections, but immediately afterward called their losses “very normal.” Rush Limbaugh performed the same about-face. Private chatter among conservative activists in the past month has been denialist, to the effect that the House losses were to have been expected, that they aren’t a bad omen for future Republican electability, etcetera, ad infinitum.
But this complacency is the product of self-delusion. Henry Olsen, a conservative who is an astute election analyst, writes what should be obvious but what too many Republicans have yet to acknowledge: “Across the nation, moderate college-educated independents who had frequently backed Republicans in prior elections switched sides.”
The truth is that Republicans have a tone problem, and Republicans have a Trump problem. And partly because of Trump, they also have a problem with issues. For example, conservative writers tried correctly but fruitlessly to spread the word that Republicans actually have a very good record on health-care issues, and Democrats’ attempt to fix healthcare was a disaster. But with Trump and company using politically unhealthy rhetoric while focusing on the migrant caravan, Republicans left the health-care politicking to the Democrats and the media. Result: Healthcare became the biggest issue in the whole election cycle, overwhelmingly in the Democrats’ favor.
The only good news – and something the New York Times’ Martin ignored when claiming that “Republicans swiftly elevated their existing slate of leaders with little debate” – is that the House GOP did choose a creative policy mind to chair what amounts to its internal think tank, the House Policy Committee. Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama, a founding father of the conservative state think tank movement, might be able to focus his colleagues’ attention on solutions that matter to voters.
They darn well better hope so. If the congressional GOP just keeps doing the same old thing, letting Trump set the tone and agenda, 2020 will be an electoral disaster.
