The humanitarian, diplomatic, and military disaster unfolding in Afghanistan right now need never have happened.
Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden both deserve ample blame — especially Biden. But so do all those in positions of authority who dismissed Afghanistan as a “forever war,” when it was a mere police action from which both human rights and U.S. interests were greatly benefiting.
Yes, I’m saying U.S. forces should have stayed in Afghanistan indefinitely.
With the long-term deployment of fewer than 10,000 troops, the United States was accomplishing quite a bit, and it could have continued doing so. From a purely self-serving standpoint, the U.S. secured the advantages of a superb, forward-deployed air base useful for American interests throughout an otherwise remote area of the globe; deterrence of major terrorism by denying evildoers a base of operations; a significant locus for intelligence operations into terrorist networks, for preparation and (again) deterrence; and tacit pressure on the neighboring state of Pakistan, an Islamic nuclear power, to remain at least somewhat restrained and nominally neutral in the civilizational sectarian struggle that others in that part of the globe are prosecuting with zeal.
From a humanitarian standpoint, the presence of those relatively few troops, along with the crucial air- and intelligence support, kept Taliban terror at bay for millions of Afghans, who now will suffer one of the most brutal regimes in the history of mankind. Except that now the Taliban will have the benefit of U.S. equipment and the No. 35 largest air force in the world. Girls who were in schools will now be pulled away and subjected to lifetimes of rape. People who dare think for themselves will be tortured. And, of course, anyone for years to come who is found to have once aided U.S. efforts will be hunted down, brutalized, and probably executed.
Furthermore, while the relative stalemate in Afghanistan between the Taliban and the government was no triumph, it at least kept alive the idea of the U.S. as a reliable ally rather than one that asks for allegiance but then abandons those who comply the moment things get difficult. The situation in Afghanistan, for about a decade, was hardly a diplomatic bragging point, but at least it wasn’t the near-epochal disaster occurring now.
The good the U.S. was accomplishing in Afghanistan and the horrors it was averting did not require extravagant American sacrifice. Acting largely in a support role rather than in direct combat, U.S. military personnel suffered “only” 10 deaths in 2020 and an even 100 between the end of 2014 and the end of 2020. This includes not just combat deaths but also accidents unrelated to direct hostilities. Compare the fewer than 10,000 personnel based there to the 28,000 permanently based in South Korea. Is Korea, too, part of a “forever war,” or is it a wise forward deployment as a mutually beneficial deterrent? It is, of course, the latter. So, too, was our presence in Afghanistan.
Now the entire free world may reap the whirlwind. The bipartisan Afghan Study Group established by Congress reported in February that a Taliban takeover of the whole country was likely if the U.S. withdrew and that the country would likely again harbor terrorists able to strike the U.S. homeland within 18-36 months.
Somehow, a “forever war” that takes fewer than 2,500 American lives in 20 years seems less awful when compared to the serious risk of another 9/11-type attack that kills nearly 3,000 in one morning.
The costs of bearing world leadership for freedom and human rights may be significant, but they are far less onerous than the costs, now incurred by the Trump and Biden administrations, of abandoning that leadership.
