Earlier this year, it looked certain that California would throw itself further down the hole of identity politics, reinstituting affirmative action in university admissions and government hiring. Now, polls are showing that’s not as clear as it seems, and progressive activists seem worried.
California’s Proposition 16 would reinstate racial- and gender-based quotas in the state, allowing universities and government agencies to make admission and hiring decisions based on those immutable characteristics. After a similar 2014 effort went down in flames, a 2020 push off the back of George Floyd’s death in Minnesota was thought to be a sure thing. Yet, polls show that Proposition 16 is in danger of failing in the most progressive state in the country. The Public Policy Institute of California found that it was underwater by 13 points in October, with 12% of voters undecided.
This fact was lamented by San Francisco State University professor Yumi Wilson, who wrote in the Washington Post that California’s system is broken for black and “Latinx” Californians and that “those of us who think change is long overdue can only hope that more California voters than the current polling indicates decide they agree.”
The problem with her analysis? The very groups she claims to speak for oppose affirmative action broadly.
A Pew Research Center poll in 2019 found that 73% of people don’t think race or ethnicity should be a factor in college admissions, including 62% of blacks and 65% of Hispanics. Both race and gender were ranked below athletic ability and having a relative who attended the school in factors that people thought should be considered.
So, yes, even legacy admissions are more popular than race- and gender-based admissions.
Californians have the chance to show that their state is not a backward-looking one seeking to discriminate against its residents based on race and gender. Residents appropriately banned affirmative action in 1996 at the ballot box and pressured legislators to kill a previous attempt to bring it back in 2014. The shine of the Golden State has continued to fade, but voters have a chance to restore some of it through Election Day.
