After long trailing by double digits, Republican Senate candidate Ed Gillespie has narrowed the gap with Virginia incumbent Sen. Mark Warner to just seven points in the most recent poll, turning a race long thought to be in the bag for a Democrats back into a competitive one.
The poll by Christopher Newport University, released Friday, put Warner ahead 51 percent to 44 percent. The poll was based on 818 registered voters and has a 3.4 percent margin of error.
Warner has led by double-digit margins in every other poll in the last year except one. A poll by the same university had Warner up by 22 points in early September. More recent ones had Warner up by 10 to 12 points. Gillespie has never led in any poll.
The Friday poll suggests that Gillespie’s rise happened because he is turning out more traditional Republican voters. The partisan breakdown was 35 percent Democrats and 34 percent Republicans, with independents accounting for most of the rest. By contrast, in early September, the partisan identification was more lopsided: 35 percent Democrats and 26 percent Republicans.
Also notable is a collapse in Libertarian candidate Robert Sarvis’ support. The third-party candidate was picking up as much as 5 percent in early September, drawing almost evenly from both parties, but he is now down to just two percent.
A poll by the Republican leaning group Vox Populi released Thursday showed an even narrower race, with Warner ahead just 44 percent to 40 percent. That was an automated telephone poll of 734 likely voters.
“We always knew this would be a late-breaking race. Ed’s positive economic growth plan is resonating with Virginians who know that changing Washington starts with changing our senators. They know we can do better than the Obama-Warner policies of the last six years,” said Paul Logan, Gillespie’s press secretary.
Nevertheless, Warner is still turning out marginally more Democrats and has several other solid advantages. Not only is there a female gender gap favoring Warner — women back him 53-43 percent according to the Friday poll — but there is also a male gender gap in his favor: Men back him 50-45 percent.
Warner is also decimating Gillespie among back voters, getting 97 percent to the Republican’s mere 1 percent, making the 79-6 percent split in favor of Warner in Newport University’s early September poll seem small by comparison.
David Turner, spokesman for the Warner campaign, simply pointed to the fact that the RealClearPolitics average still has the Democratic candidate well ahead.
“Senator Warner has consistently polled at or above 50 percent in a three-way race. He continues to have support from Democrats, independents and Republicans in all corners of the commonwealth. Despite Ed Gillespie’s misleading attacks, Virginians know Sen, Warner’s record of reaching across the aisle to find solutions to reduce student debt, fix our nation’s balance sheet and bring jobs back to Virginia,” Turner said.
