HALFWAY THERE: The U.S. says the half of Mosul that lies to east of the Tigris River has been freed from the brutal rule of Islamic State terrorists. The Pentagon has issued a victory statement, quoting Iraqi officials as declaring eastern Mosul officially liberated. After more than 100 days of “hard urban combat,” the release says, “Iraqi security forces now control all areas inside the city east of the Tigris River, the east bank of the river around all five bridges crossing the Tigris River, Mosul University and the Ninevah Ruins.”
“This is a monumental achievement for not only the Iraqi security forces and sovereign government of Iraq, but all Iraqi people,” said Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Townsend, the U.S. general overseeing the anti-ISIS campaign. “There is still a long way to go … and the fight for western Mosul is likely to be even tougher than the eastern side,” he said. “But the [Iraqis] have proven they are both a professional and formidable fighting force and I have every confidence that ISIL’s days are numbered in Iraq.”
President Trump as recently as this month called the Mosul offensive “a disaster,” so we’ll be watching to see if he has any thoughts on the Iraqis’ progress.
ISIL’S DAYS ARE NUMBERED? While the Obama administration preferred to refer to the Islamic State terrorism as “ISIL,” Trump, and his civilian national security team calls the group “ISIS.” It would appear ISIL is on the way out, and ISIS will be the name of the enemy Trump has vowed to destroy.
We’ll get the latest on the fight against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) at 11 a.m. from Army Maj. Gen. Joseph Martin, who is the commanding general, Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command – Operation Inherent Resolve. His live briefing from Baghdad will be streamed live at defense.gov.
BY THE NUMBERS: Since Oct. 17, the U.S.-led coalition has conducted 558 airstrikes in support of the Iraqi ground assault on Mosul, using 10,115 munitions. The bombs and missiles destroyed at least 151 vehicle bombs, 361 buildings/facilities, 140 tunnels, 408 vehicles, 392 bunkers, 24 anti-air artillery systems, and 315 artillery/mortar systems, not to mention killing thousands of ISIS fighters.
FROZEN MEANS FROZEN: Late yesterday, the Office of Management and Budget got back to the Pentagon to clear up the confusion over Trump’s federal hiring freeze. The word is that a plain reading of the language of the presidential memorandum is correct. It applies “to all executive departments and agencies, including civilian employees within the DoD,” Pentagon spokesman Johnny Michael clarified in an email last night, adding, “The Presidential Memorandum exempts military personnel from the freeze.” There are exceptions in the order for any positions requiring presidential appointment or Senate confirmation, non-career positions in the Senior Executive Service and Schedule C positions in the Excepted Service.
MATTIS THE DIPLOMAT: Defense Secretary James Mattis is continuing to reach out allies, working through a list of some of America’s closest friends. Yesterday he called Australian Defense Minister Marise Payne and New Zealand’s Defense Minister Gerry Brownlee. Mattis is reportedly planning for his first overseas trip to focus on the Asia-Pacific. Mattis plans to visit Japan and South Korea next week, according to a report by Reuters, which notes “the trip would closely follow Trump’s withdrawal from the 12-nation Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact,” which disappointed many key U.S. allies in Asia.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Trump is expected to sign multiple executive actions today at the Department of Homeland Security that would include jump-starting his proposed wall along the U.S.-Mexico border, targeting so-called sanctuary cities and beginning to roll out policies aimed at restricting the flow of refugees to the United States. It’s expected the orders will tighten U.S. immigration from certain majority-Muslim countries, including Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. Last night, Trump tweeted: “Big day planned on NATIONAL SECURITY tomorrow. Among many other things, we will build the wall!”
LOCKHEED Q4 RESULTS: Lockheed Martin CEO Marillyn Hewson said that Trump has asked “excellent questions” about cutting the cost of the F-35 during her meetings with him, but is not going after the company’s profit margins. The company announced $47.3 billion in sales in 2016, about a $7 billion increase over the previous year. They’re predicting $49.4 to $50.6 billion in sales this year. Hewson says, as promised, the cost of the pricey fighter jet is coming down. Currently, the conventional runway version used by the Air Force and most international partners runs about $100 million per plane. But the price tag is expected to drop further in the 10th batch coming soon, a 60 percent reduction from the initial production lot.
Next up in Q4 earnings week: Boeing. Check here tomorrow for updates.
HALEY’S IN: The Senate easily confirmed Trump’s nominee to represent the United States at the United Nations on Tuesday, and gave his national security team its first diplomat, Joel Gehrke reports. Nikki Haley, South Carolina’s governor, succeeds Samantha Power as the U.S. representative. She passed in an easy 96-4 vote that was foreshadowed earlier Tuesday in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where just two Democrats voted against her.
In the final vote, the only “no” votes came from Sens. Chris Coons, Martin Heinrich, Bernie Sanders and Tom Udall.
CONFIRMATION PAUSE: No confirmation hearings are scheduled for the Senate today, as lawmakers head out of town for annual party retreats. The Republicans are gathering in Philadelphia, while Senate Democrats are meeting in Shepherdstown, W.Va. Trump is expected to drop in at the GOP retreat tomorrow, and he’ll face lots of questions. The Republicans are also expected to get a visit from British Prime Minister Theresa May, who meets with Trump Friday. May’s attendance at the Republican event, but not the Democratic one, has angered some Dems.
RETURN OF THE BRAC: Top leaders of the Senate Armed Services Committee said yesterday they want to talk to Mattis about the possibility of another round of base closures, something that’s previously been very unpopular on Capitol Hill as lawmakers fight to keep bases open in their home districts. “We need to talk about it, I think it has to be considered as all things should be on the table,” said Sen. John McCain.
The remarks came during a hearing on defense spending in fiscal 2018 and beyond, during which Democrats staked out their long-held position that spending on defense can’t be increased beyond Budget Control Act caps without a comparable increase for non-defense spending. The remarks suggested that Trump and Republicans in Congress will face the same hurdles as those before them, even in a unified GOP government.
MULVANEY VS. MCCAIN: McCain promised “interesting” questions for Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Trump’s pick to be head of the OMB, and he didn’t disappoint. The senator from Arizona slammed the congressman for his votes to cut military spending and to withdraw troops from Afghanistan at a hearing in the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. “You’ve spent your entire congressional career pitting debt against the military and every time for you the military has been less important,” McCain said. But Sen. Rand Paul came to Mulvaney’s defense and asked if his concern over the national debt is actually a concern about national security, pointing to former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Adm. Mike Mullen comment that debt is the greatest security threat to the country.
RUSSIA’S NO ALLY: McCain also pushed back hard against the White House suggestion that there may be a way for the U.S. to work with Russia to defeat ISIS in Syria. “I would be deeply disturbed if such a thing were to happen,” McCain said last night in an interview on CNN. “Let me just give you the example. They have been bombing and striking the moderate opposition, people that we armed and trained, meanwhile ISIS retakes Palmyra, and they don’t do anything about it. It certainly shows the Russians’ priorities, which are not ISIS. They are to consolidate Bashar al-Assad in power, and consolidate their now significant, in fact in some ways, the most powerful role in the Middle East.” McCain’s comments come a day after the Pentagon adamantly denied it was coordinating with Russia on airstrikes in Syria.
NUCLEAR TRIGGER LOCK: Two Democratic members of Congress introduced a bill yesterday that would prevent Trump from launching a first strike with nuclear weapons without lawmakers declaring war and explicitly authorizing such an attack. “It is a frightening reality that the U.S. now has a commander-in-chief who has demonstrated ignorance of the nuclear triad, stated his desire to be ‘unpredictable’ with nuclear weapons, and as president-elect was making sweeping statements about U.S. nuclear policy over Twitter,” Rep. Ted Lieu said in a statement.
COMEY STAYS: Trump has no plans to fire FBI Director James Comey according to a report in the The New York Times. Comey’s 10-year term runs through 2023, but the president could, in theory, ask him to step down. Comey reportedly told top agents he’s been asked to stay on by Trump, and the two seemed friendly during a meeting this weekend where Trump called Comey “more famous than me.” Comey has been a lightning rod for criticism on both sides of the aisle since the summer for his public statements regarding the investigation into Hillary Clinton‘s private email server.
THE RUNDOWN
Wall Street Journal: Trump Told Afghan Leader He Would Consider Troop Increase
Military.com: Trump’s Federal Hiring Freeze Could Hurt Vets: Officials
Defense News: Fix the Fleet! US Navy Makes Maintenance Top Priority
Military.com: Trump’s SecAF Pick May Signal Openness to Women in Combat
USNI News: Update to Navy Unfunded Priorities List Emphasizes Readiness; Would Add More Super Hornets, Additional Amphib
UPI: U.S. Air Force upgrades 45th KC-135 tanker aircraft
Reuters: China foreign minister says wants to manage disputes with U.S.
Asia Times: Trump’s Pentagon expected to curb military ties with China
Defense One: China’s Growing Ambitions in Space
Reuters: China foreign minister says wants to manage disputes with U.S
New York Times: Iran, Russia and Turkey Agree to Enforce Syria Cease-Fire, but Don’t Explain How
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JANUARY 25
9:30 a.m. Senate Visitor’s Center 203. The Air Force Association’s Mitchell Institute for Aerospace releases a new study on the value of ICBMs and the new ground-based strategic deterrent. mitchellaerospacepower.org
10 a.m. 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. The Woodrow Wilson Center hosts an event on NATO and Russia. Wilsoncenter.org
11 a.m. Pentagon Briefing Room. Army Maj. Gen. Joseph Martin, commanding general, Combined Joint Forces Land Component Command – Operation Inherent Resolve, briefs live from Baghdad on counter-ISIS on operations. Live streamed at defense.gov
1 p.m. Pentagon Auditorium. Annual DoD Martin Luther King Observance. Defense Secretary James Mattis makes brief introductory remarks, and speakers include Director of Administration and Management Michael Rhodes and Air Force Lt. Gen. Stayce Harris, assistant vice chief of staff and director, Air Staff. Live streamed at defense.gov
3:30 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. A panel of experts predicts what relations with Iran will look like under the Trump administration. atlanticcouncil.org
FRIDAY | JANUARY 27
12 p.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Jay Solomon, author of The Iran Wars: Spy Games, Bank Battles, and the Secret Deals That Reshaped the Middle East, speaks at the Heritage Foundation. heritage.org
MONDAY | JANUARY 30
10 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. The Center for Strategic and International Studies releases a new study on international joint acquisition projects. csis.org
12 p.m. 1030 15th St. NW. Sen. Chris Murphy delivers the keynote address at an event looking at what implications the Iran nuclear deal has for the U.S. interests in the Middle East. atlanticcouncil.org
5:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright talks about America’s place in the world. csis.org
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 1
11 a.m. 214 Massachusetts Ave. NE. Seth Jones discusses his new book, Waging Insurgent Warfare: Lessons from the Vietcong to the Islamic State. heritage.org
3:30 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. Two panels discuss the future of nuclear deterrence and alliances. csis.org
