As Steve Hayes and I have reported (see here, for example), the Obama administration is in the process of deciding what to do with the approximately 97 Yemeni detainees being held at Guantanamo.** The administration was initially considering repatriating a “majority” of the Yemenis to their home country. There are a lot of problems with that approach, however, including a duplicitous Yemeni government and an increasingly strong al Qaeda presence. So, the administration is now apparently leaning towards sending most of the Yemenis to Saudi Arabia, which has a rehabilitation program for jihadists. The Wall Street Journal broke down the new thinking in an article on Friday. The WSJ says that 15 of these detainees have been cleared for release or transfer. Another 15 “are likely to face some kind of U.S. trial.” As for the remaining 67 or so Yemeni detainees:
CNN added to the WSJ story, reporting that the Obama team has already broached the topic with both the Saudi and Yemeni governments. Here are just some of the problems the Obama administration faces: First, the Saudi program is based, in large part, on familial shame. The jihadists are taught that their actions are not religiously justified and that they will shame their families if they continue down their violent path. This instruction is combined with financial bribes (e.g. cash, cars, a job etc.). But, here’s the rub. Only approximately 20 Yemeni detainees have familial ties inside the Kingdom. This likely includes some of the 15 who have been cleared for release or transfer as well as some of the 67 or so other detainees, “many of whom officials say pose a threat.” Thus, a large number of the Yemeni detainees do not have any familial ties inside Saudi Arabia. It is not clear how effective the rehab program can be on individuals who have no roots inside the Kingdom. And it is not even clear how strong the familial roots are for the 20 or so detainees who have them. So, what will the Obama administration do with those Yemenis who have no family ties on Saudi soil? Second, the Saudi program is looking much less effective than both Saudi and American officials have previously claimed. The Saudis have said that 11 of the kingdom’s most wanted terrorists are former detainees at Guantanamo who went through the rehab program. Dozens of other “most wanted” suspects similarly passed through the program as well. Third, it is not clear that the Saudis will accept the Yemeni detainees, having rejected some similar proposals in the past. In addition, the Yemeni government has objected to the Saudis taking them. Even if the Saudis do want them, it is not clear that they can reintegrate them over the long haul. It is possible that the Saudis could take in a number of Yemeni detainees only to eventually let them go. There is no assurance that the Yemenis do not end up back in Yemen, which is the home to a substantial terrorist network. And if the Saudis do take the Yemenis, you can bet they will want some political concessions or favors from the American government. These are just a few of the problems. There are more. But the bottom line is this: The president and his aides have put themselves in a difficult position. They have committed to closing Guantanamo in less than one year. It looks like the administration does not want to continue detaining many of the remaining detainees. But a number of the detainees are dangerous and there is no easy, safe way to release or transfer them. **News reports say there are “approximately 100” Yemeni detainees. We’ve counted 97 based on the NY Times‘ online database.
