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NEW YEAR, NEW OIL: OPEC+ opted to move forward with another production increase for the month of February, indicating the cartel remains confident in strong demand and market tightness despite the high number of coronavirus infections in some leading markets and public health worries about the omicron variant.
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Member countries approved another 400,000-barrel-per-day increase today, informed in part by an updated assessment from OPEC’s Joint Technical Committee meeting yesterday estimating that quantities of oversupplied crude for the first quarter will be less than previously thought.
Analysts with ClearView Energy Partners assessed in a note the decision was also influenced by supply outages in Ecuador and Libya, strong OPEC oil demand growth forecasts, and low petroleum stock levels among large economies.
OPEC+’s move maintains the course it embarked upon in its meeting last month when it elected to go ahead with planned production increases over and against news about omicron, which sent the oil market plummeting in late November and was still a significantly unknown variable in early December when members got together.
Oil prices have recovered and remained up ever since. Brent crude has been trading at and above $80 per barrel all morning.
“No wonder OPEC+ has grown confident that the market can take further increases in supply,” Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets with Rystad Energy, said in a statement this morning.
Tonhaugen said further that volatility surrounding the variant seems to have passed and the market looks stable.
“All the while, for now the Omicron risk remains exactly that, a risk. Instead of an outright deeper lockdown impact, market balances will remain somewhat tight for January and February and keep oil prices supported, especially with supply side concerns and a disciplined OPEC+,” he said.
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EIA CAPS 2021 IN OIL: A fresh year-end market summary from the Energy Information Administration puts a finer point on 2021’s steep rise in oil prices.
Global benchmark Brent crude’s annual average price for last year was $71 per barrel, which is its highest level in the past three years. Meanwhile, the price of West Texas Intermediate tracked closely with Brent, averaging about $68 per barrel for the year.
Benchmark Brent crude began 2021 at $50 per barrel and peaked at $86 per barrel in October — a 72% increase. In the U.S. market, EIA attributes the supply-demand divergence to disruptions caused by cold weather in February and hurricanes in August, as well as to falling investment in production.
ANOTHER LOOK-BACK FROM EIA: In a blog post yesterday, EIA noted that overall energy commodity prices increased 59% last year from the first trading day to the last, a significantly steeper increase compared to other indexed commodities such as livestock and precious metals.
US LNG LEADS: The United States led the world as the premier exporter of liquefied natural gas last month for the first time in history, Bloomberg reports.
Europe’s desperate need for gas drove some U.S. cargoes toward the continent and away from Asia during the latter half of the month, the outlet also reported.
European benchmark gas futures hit an astronomical 179 euros on Dec. 20, up from a low of 64 euros less than two months before. Prices fell steeply heading into the Christmas holiday but remain volatile.
Leaders in the U.S. oil and gas industry have emphasized the sky-high demand and the need to help keep allies warm in defending their exports against calls by some congressional Democrats for President Joe Biden to institute an export ban on fuel commodities. The Biden administration rejected such calls last month.
OPEC SELECTS NEW SECRETARY GENERAL: The cartel announced yesterday that it appointed Haitham Al Ghais of Kuwait to be its next secretary general.
Al Ghais, who will begin a three-year term in August, previously worked as Kuwait’s OPEC governor from 2017 to June 2021 and is currently deputy managing director for international marketing at the state-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corporation.
A couple of things that happened while we were away …
EU’S GREEN INVESTMENT PROPOSAL: As the European Union remains pinched for energy and pursues net-zero, a draft European Commission proposal would dub some natural gas and nuclear power projects as sustainable “transitional” investments, Reuters reports.
The proposal would include nuclear power plant investments in the bloc’s “sustainable finance taxonomy” as long as a prospective project has a plan to manage waste and is permitted before 2045.
The issue of managing waste is a prevailing one for the German government, which just shuttered three reactors, and one official said the country “expressly rejects” the commission draft plan’s assessment of nuclear energy.
Gas plants could also be dubbed sustainable under the proposal if they: produce emissions at a rate of less than 270 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt hour, replace a higher-emitting plant, receive permitting by Dec. 31, 2030, and have a plan to employ low-carbon gases by the end of 2035.
MASSACHUSETTS EXPANDS SOLAR CAPACITY: The Massachusetts Department of Public Utilities doubled solar capacity authorized through the state’s Solar Massachusetts Renewable Target program, raising it from 1,600 to 3,200 megawatts.
The decision allows more than 175 megawatts of outstanding solar projects to move forward, according to the Solar Energy Industries Association.
The Rundown
Wall Street Journal New EU rules spark fight over what is ‘green’ energy
Bloomberg Europe sleepwalked into an energy crisis that could last years
Calendar
WEDNESDAY | JAN. 12
10 a.m. The American Petroleum Institute and Energy Citizens will host the 13th annual 2022 “State of Energy” forum.
THURSDAY | JAN. 20
12 p.m. The National EV Charging Initiative will host a first-of-its-kind electric vehicle summit.
