On Thursday, CNN correspondent Sam Kiley suggested that a U.S. military strike on Iran would result in a major war that no one could win. I support President Trump’s effort to avoid a conflict, but I disagree with Kiley’s assessment.
For a start, there’s little reason to think that a limited U.S. military strike against Iran would result in a far broader conflict. The same is true of limited Saudi retaliation for Iran’s recent attack on Saudi oil facilities.
The key here is Iran’s standing strategic objective: dominating the Middle East with an arc of Khomeinist and supplicant regimes. That objective cannot be achieved if Iran pursues a major war with the United States. American air and naval dominance could impose steadily escalating costs on the regime without the need for a U.S. ground invasion. With time, this military pressure would unleash a revolution by those Iranians opposed to the Islamic Republic. Although they’ll never admit it, the Iranian hardliners know as much. Which is why they calibrate their violence against America to that which they believe they can get away with. This is also why Iran is cautious even when dealing with its arch nemesis, Israel.
This is not to say that Iran would accept a U.S. strike without retaliation. It might do that, but if it does retaliate, then the retaliation will be tempered. I doubt Iran would respond, as Kiley suggests, with major attacks on U.S. bases or Dubai international airport. Limited mortar strikes would be more likely. Kidnappings of U.S. citizens would also be a risk. But were Trump to warn Iran against escalation and suggest U.S. retaliation would be limited, Iran would pay notice.
The basic point here is that the U.S. would own the escalation curve with Iran. Kiley warns that a war with Iran “could not be won by the West and its allies — and could easily be lost.” But I ask, how? How could Iran defeat the U.S.? The U.S. could simply drop bombs on and fire missiles at the regime until it was forced to choose between a cease fire and implosion.
None of this means we should seek a conflict with Iran. As I say, we should endeavor to avoid it. But we should be realistic. Iran knows it cannot presently win a war with America. And it would take action to avoid that outcome.
