The latest Fox News poll is pretty dismal for President Trump: Just 38 percent of registered voters approve of the job he’s doing, his lowest rating in the poll since Fox began asking the question in February. Trump’s disapproval is at an all-time high, too, with 57 percent of registered voters disapproving of his job; 49 percent saying they do so “strongly.” That’s also the president’s worst showing.
On the issues, Trump is getting worse ratings than his overall approval for everything—taxes, North Korea, Iran, and health care—except for the economy, where 44 percent approve of his job (and 49 percent disapprove). But even on the economy, which is humming along with a near daily new record-high on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Trump’s approval is down from where it has been in past polls. You can read more of the results of the poll, which finds Americans giving high marks to the previous two presidents, here.
It’s impossible to draw direct parallels between presidencies, but perhaps it’s instructive to look how where other recent presidents were when they hit such low numbers: Barack Obama’s all-time low in the Fox News poll for job approval was 38 percent. That number came in September 2014 as the threat from ISIS became clearer to the American public and the president struggled to articulate a military strategy. Two months later, Republicans kept their House majority and took over the Senate in the midterm election.
As with Obama, George W. Bush did not get below 38 percent approval in Fox’s poll until his second term. In November 2005, Bush dropped to 36 percent before jumping back up into the 40s. But after March 2006, with the Iraq war at its most unpopular and his Social Security reform effort dead, Bush was rarely above 40 percent for the rest of his presidency. The GOP lost control of both houses of Congress that year, Bush had few domestic accomplishments thereafter, and he left office with a 34 percent approval rating.
What this milestone means for Trump, a president and political figure who has defied many of the so-called iron laws of politics, won’t be immediately clear. But it underscores the difficult political position he finds himself in, as far as accomplishing his agenda. Trump needs Republicans in Congress to accomplish something big, most likely tax reform, if the party is going to have any kind of positive message heading into the 2018 midterms.
With a narrow margin in the Senate and an unpredictable conference in the House, any president would need a wealth of political goodwill to get such a big initiative through. But with an approval rating matching those of his predecessors at their lowest moments, Trump doesn’t have much to offer in either political cover or a mandate from voters.
2020 Watch—“I haven’t decided to run, but I’ve decided I’m not going to decide not to run. We’ll see what happens.” —Joe Biden on a possible presidential bid
Will the GOP tax reform package set to be unveiled next week lower the amount Americans can contribute tax-free to their retirement plans? It depends on who you ask.
After reports that Republicans on Capitol Hill were considering lowering the cap on pre-tax contributions to 401(k)s, President Trump seemed to slam the door on the notion with a tweet on Monday. He promised “NO change to your 401(k)” and called the pension plan “a great and popular middle class tax break that works.”
But Republican leaders in the House and Senate disputed that pledge Wednesday. Ways and Means committee chairman Kevin Brady declined to comment on the subject explicitly, saying only that “we are continuing discussions with the president.” And Senate Finance committee chairman Orrin Hatch said he was “open to look at anything.”
“He has his point of view, and he may prove to be right in the end,” Hatch said. “We’ll just have to see.”
Shortly after, Trump muddied the waters with an equivocating statement: “Well, maybe it is [on the table], and maybe we’ll use it as negotiating. But trust me, that’s one of the great things. You know, there are certain elements of deals you don’t want to negotiate with.”
It’s worth recalling that this kind of intramural tension is exactly the thing the “Big Six” tax group, with its representatives from both houses of Congress and the White House, was created to avoid. Republican Obamacare repeal foundered in the Senate in July due in part to conflicting Republican messaging. (At one point, the president called his party’s bill “mean.”) By creating a framework all parties could agree on ahead of time, the group hoped they could present a united front on taxes against fierce Democratic attacks.
Photo of the Day
Spotted blocks from the White House: An ad for Russia-backed cable network RT featuring its “very American” host, Jesse Ventura. (Andrew Egger)
Is Donald Trump the king of deregulation? My colleague Peter Boyer makes a very convincing case for in this week’s magazine that the Trump administration has done more to undo federal regulations of the kind Republicans have been deriding since the Reagan era than any president in recent years. Here’s an excerpt:
Fed Chair Watch—Gary Cohn, the former Goldman Sachs executive who is the chairman of the National Economic Council, is not under consideration for chairman of the Federal Reserve, sources tell Bloomberg. “Trump said in at least one private meeting last week that Cohn has no chance of being Fed chair, according to a person present for the remarks,” reports Bloomberg.
In an interview with Fox Business host Lou Dobbs taped Wednesday, Trump asked who Dobbs thought Trump should nominate. After resisting, Dobbs suggested the president could re-nominate the current Fed chair, Janet Yellen. “I tell you what, she was in my office three days ago,” Trump responded. “She was very impressive. I like her a lot. I mean, it’s somebody that I am thinking about. I would certainly think about it.”
According to senators who were in the room at Tuesday’s Republican policy luncheon, Trump asked for a “show of hands” on Yellen and two other potential nominees: current Fed board member Jerome Powell and Stanford professor John Taylor.
Yellen has served as Fed chair since 2014, when she was nominated by Barack Obama and confirmed by the Senate. Her term will end in February next year.
Tech Watch—Amazon Prime launches its Amazon Key service, which will allow Amazon to deliver packages inside your house. If multi-billion-dollar, market-responsive retail companies are developing services like this, how bad can things really be in America?
Song of the Day— “Ain’t That a Shame” by Fats Domino
