Can Democrats reach a filibuster-proof majority in the U.S. Senate? State level polling averages reported in this morning’s Real Clear Politics (RCP) reveal that the road to sixty votes–while not impossible–looks pretty tough for the Democrats. But the numbers also show little margin of error for the GOP. The surveys reveal Democrats currently lead in six Republican-held states and are tied in two more. If the GOP ends up losing all eight, Democrats would hold a 59-41 margin. According to today’s RCP poll averages, Democrats command a double-digit edge in three states currently held by Republicans (VA, NM and CO). In New Hampshire, incumbent Republican John Sununu trails by an average of 8.6% points, but the most recent polls show the race tightening a bit. In Oregon, incumbent Senator Gordon Smith trails by 3.5% points. North Carolina incumbent Elizabeth Dole is down by 2% points. Minnesota’s Norm Coleman is in a near dead heat, according to RCP. And recently convicted Alaska Senator Ted Stevens is also in a near tied, based on the averages. But all the reported polling is pre-conviction. Based on these current numbers, losses for Republicans in the 4-8 seat range appears likely. Getting to the coveted 9th seat and reaching the magic number of 60 looks more daunting. That would require Democrats sweeping the eight seats mentioned above plus winning one of three seats in the South (MS, GA and KY)–all states where Republican incumbents currently lead in the polls. That’s why this most recent Rasmussen poll showing Mississippi Senator Roger Wicker with a double digit lead probably resulted in a sigh of relief among some Senate Republicans and others hoping Democrats don’t reach a filibuster proof majority. Still, even Wicker’s race will likely tighten depending on African-American turnout in the state.
